The 2023 MLS season has reached its conclusion, and Saturday’s final between the Columbus Crew and LAFC is sure to be a fascinating one. Our latest MLS Cup odds show the Crew are expected to deny LAFC a second-straight trophy.
The Crew reached the final with a never-quit attitude, as they stormed back against Cincinnati to secure an improbable win last weekend. Cucho Hernandez assisted the winner in extra-time, securing a goal involvement for the sixth time in his last seven matches. He will lead the line for a Crew team that paced MLS in goals.
LAFC are seeking to repeat as champions, but they’re also ready for a well-deserved offseason. This will be their 53rd match played due to their involvement in the CONCACAF Champions League and US Open Cup, and they look as if they’ve lost a step in attack. Instead, it’s been their defense carrying them this postseason, keeping three consecutive clean sheets to reach the final.
Continuing that trend will be a tall task, and our Columbus Crew vs. LAFC picks and predictions for MLS Cup 2023 show it’s unlikely we’ll see any zeros on the final tally.
Columbus Crew vs LAFC best odds
Columbus Crew vs LAFC picks and predictions
Saturday’s final features the leading xG sides from both conferences, both of whom have a penchant for attacking. Columbus paced the league with 57.7 xG, while LAFC’s 55.6 was the third-best mark in the league and top of the West.
So you’ll have to excuse me if I’m a bit excited to get a +105 odds on both teams finding the back of the net in a high-scoring affair, which is why it’s my best bet over at TonyBet.
But it’s not just about xG, or raw numbers, or metrics, or any of that. It revolves around the style of play, especially that of Columbus. The Crew have gotten where they are by dominating time of possession and turning into bulldogs when they lose it.
They dominated possession against Cincinnati but were trailing 2-0 heading into the final quarter of an hour. No matter, though—they simply kept pushing, got two goals in 10 minutes, and eventually stamped their place in the final with a winner in the 115th minute.
The Crew’s 57.1% possession mark easily led the MLS, a key reason they scored 63 goals this campaign. They had the most progressive passes and progressive carries as well and also led the league in take-ons. They’re a team that won’t hesitate to push bodies forward, and Hernandez will fire anytime he’s given the chance.
That doesn’t come without risk, though. Columbus committed the eighth-most defensive errors this season, and LAFC is a team that can and will punish those errors. LAFC finished third in progressive passes and fourth in progressive carries. They’re a side that likes to maintain possession as well, but — as they showed against Seattle — they’re lethal on the counter.
Denis Bouanga of LAFC is going to put pressure on the Crew, as the Golden Boot winner also had the third-most successful take-ons this season while finishing with the second-most progressive carries.
The Crew are the only side in MLS this season with more take-ons than LAFC, and also the only side with more touches in their opponent’s penalty area. However, LAFC have shown they’re vulnerable to being attacked in space as well, having conceded the third-most take-on attempts in the league.
These are two teams with plenty of firepower, and LAFC is more than content to hit on the break while Columbus dominates the ball. I’m expecting a final similar to what we saw a year ago when LAFC and Philly combined for four goals in regulation before LAFC won on penalties after a 3-3 match.
Jump over to TonyBet and get this combo play before the odds shift under even money.
My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (+105 at TonyBet)
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Columbus Crew vs LAFC same-game parlay
Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score
Cucho Hernandez Over 1.5 shots on goal
Columbus to lift the trophy
Our same-game parlay at bet365 combines the two items in our best bet with two additional legs.
Cucho’s shooting numbers are obscene, with 23 in his past two matches, and the betting market has finally caught up. So instead of going after shots, we’ll take him to have multiple shots on goal. He’s had at least two shots on target in six of his last seven matches, and Columbus won’t have a high chance of winning if he’s not heavily involved again.
We’re also backing Columbus to lift the trophy. I see this match as one that could easily enter extra time, but that would just help Columbus more. They’re red-hot, fresher, and are now playing at home.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Columbus Crew vs LAFC side and Over/Under analysis
Columbus are favorites to win the trophy in regulation. The line has shifted in their favor during the week, moving from +130 down to +115. LAFC is getting as much as +240, while the draw pays up to +240 as well.
The Crew have tasted defeat at Lower.com Field just once all season, winning 14 of 19 matches at home. This match kicks off at 4 pm EST, which is an earlier start for LAFC than they’re used to. The visitors are exhausted, and once again have to fly across the country to play. When it gets down to crunch time, the Crew will have more energy and a rabid fanbase behind them, and that’s a significant edge that can’t be ignored.
LAFC haven’t been great away from home, and their 1-0 win over Seattle was a fortunate one. They claimed just four away victories in 17 league matches this season, and barely averaged a goal per contest.
The total of 2.5 goals is evenly split on both sides, although the Over is slightly favored depending on the book. LAFC's kept three straight clean sheets in matches that have seen either one or two total goals and four of their last five have gone Under.
Meanwhile, the Crew aren’t built to play low-scoring affairs. Their 2-0 win in Orlando was scoreless after 90 minutes, and it’s their only Under over the past four matches. They’ve also gone Over in four of their last six and in six of their last nine at home in all competitions.
Columbus Crew vs LAFC game info
| Location: | Lower.com Field, Columbus, OH |
| Date: | Saturday, December 9, 2023 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 60 degrees Fahrenheit with a 55% chance of precipitation and expected winds of up to 18 mph. |
Columbus Crew vs LAFC key injuries
Columbus Crew: James Sands D (Out).
LAFC: None.
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