Week 4 of the Major League Soccer season delivered plenty of drama. Five of the weekend’s 15 matches saw the result changed by a stoppage-time score.
While we were on the unfortunate end of three of those goals, we move on to a new week of action.
The slate is headlined by the Vancouver Whitecaps hosting the San Jose Earthquakes, and a clash between New York City FC and an Inter Miami side led by Lionel Messi.
Read on for our MLS predictions and free betting picks for Week 5 of the campaign.
Week 4 results: 7-8, -1.82u
MLS SEASON: 31-28, +3.35u
MLS moneyline picks for Matchday 5
| Game | Pick |
|---|---|
 Toronto FC vs  Columbus Crew SC |
Draw +250 |
 Philadelphia Union vs  Chicago Fire |
Draw +230 |
 Nashville SC vs  Orlando City SC |
-182 |
 Atlanta United FC vs  D.C. United |
+100 |
 Charlotte FC vs  New York Red Bulls |
Draw +230 |
 FC Dallas vs  Houston Dynamo |
+115 |
 Sporting Kansas City vs  Colorado Rapids |
Draw +250 |
 St. Louis CITY SC vs  New England Revolution |
Draw +270 |
 Austin FC vs  LAFC |
-108 |
 Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs  San Jose Earthquakes |
Draw +320 |
 FC Cincinnati vs  CF Montreal |
-147 |
 New York City FC vs  Inter Miami FC |
+120 |
 Minnesota United FC vs  Seattle Sounders FC |
+137 |
 Portland Timbers vs  LA Galaxy |
Draw +270 |
 San Diego FC vs  Real Salt Lake |
Draw +280 |
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
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Toronto FC vs Columbus Crew SC
Pick: Draw (+250)
Toronto went 3-7-7 at BMO Field last season, and allowed the Red Bulls to score a 97th-minute equalizer last weekend in their home opener. Toronto’s also gone 10 straight against the Crew without a victory. Columbus hasn’t scored in their last two matches, and we could have another boring 0-0 draw on our hands.
Philadelphia Union vs Chicago Fire
Pick: Draw (+230)
The Union have been atrocious so far, but showed some signs of life against Club America in CONCACAF Champions Cup action on Wednesday. The Fire have been the better side, but injuries in defense have led to them coughing up late leads. Chicago hasn’t won in Philly in nearly 13 years, but they have a strong chance of sharing the spoils on Saturday.
Nashville SC vs Orlando City SC
Pick: Nashville (-182)
Orlando’s finally on the board, but it took a narrow win over a putrid Montreal side. Sam Surridge leads MLS in shots on target per match and leads a dangerous Nashville attack. The home side has allowed just 2.7 xGA through four matches and looks like one of the best clubs in the league early on.
Atlanta United FC vs D.C. United
Pick: Atlanta (+100)
Tata Martino’s side looks to finally be figuring things out. Granted, it came against the struggling Union, but the attack looked lively. DC United has just two wins, over the Union and a penalty-aided victory in stoppage time last week at Chicago. I’ve yet to see enough consistency to back a result for the away side.
Charlotte FC vs New York Red Bulls
Pick: Draw (+230)
Charlotte finally got a victory last week against a rotated Inter Miami side, and the home team has taken seven wins and three draws in 10 matches between these sides. The Red Bulls have enough attacking prowess to get a result, though, especially with how many chances they’ve been creating.
FC Dallas vs Houston Dynamo
Pick: FC Dallas (+115)
Dallas got an impressive comeback draw last week with San Diego, and are ninth in MLS in xG differential. They’ve navigated an extremely difficult run of matches to open the campaign, and are the better side heading into this match. Houston was fortunate to get a win over Portland last weekend while a man down, and won’t get that lucky here.
Sporting Kansas City vs Colorado Rapids
Pick: Draw (+250)
Colorado’s lost twice on the road already this season, but those came against Seattle and NYCFC. Sporting KC looked a different side last weekend in a victory over LA Galaxy, with Lasse Berg Johnsen immediately shoring up their midfield. The Rapids will present more of a goal-scoring threat than the Galaxy did, and we have a high probability for an entertaining draw.
St. Louis CITY SC vs New England Revolution
Pick: Draw (+270)
The Revolution stunned MLS with a 6-1 trouncing of FC Cincinnati last weekend. But St. Louis has allowed the fifth-lowest xG so far, and both sides are struggling to put away chances. This feels like a 1-1 draw.
Austin FC vs LAFC
Pick: LAFC (-108)
LAFC’s perfect start to the season gets more impressive with the realization that Heung-min Son hasn’t scored a goal yet and has assisted on just two of their eight tallies. Austin is still struggling to generate scoring opportunities, and that will be their downfall as LAFC makes it five wins on the trot in league play.
Vancouver Whitecaps FC vs San Jose Earthquakes
Pick: Draw (+320)
The Whitecaps have put together a history beginning to their MLS campaign, but they lost both their CCC matches with Seattle over the past two weeks and saw Andres Cubas exit with an injury. That same Seattle side was dominated last weekend by San Jose, who suffered a 1-0 defeat despite a 2.35-0.51 xG advantage. The Earthquakes are being undervalued here, and I’m backing an entertaining stalemate.
FC Cincinnati vs CF Montreal
Pick: FC Cincinnati (-147)
It’s been an inexcusable week for Cincinnati, who were humiliated 6-1 by the Revolution before being knocked out of the CCC on Thursday night with a 5-1 capitulation. But until Montreal gives me a reason to trust them, I refuse to back them to get a result.
New York City FC vs Inter Miami FC
Pick: NYCFC (+120)
Inter Miami manager Javier Mascherano is suspended, and the Herons come in on the back of a scoreless draw with Nashville. This will be their sixth match in 22 days, and fatigue is a real concern already. NYCFC’s attack is lethal, and the smaller pitch will help them deal with Messi while getting goals on the counter.
Minnesota United FC vs Seattle Sounders FC
Pick: Seattle (+137)
We won’t get the Sounders at this price many times this season. Aside from a loss to RSL—where they can never win—the Sounders have been near flawless in all competitions. They’ll get three points against a Minnesota team that was humiliated 6-0 in Vancouver last weekend.
Portland Timbers vs LA Galaxy
Pick: Draw (+270)
The Galaxy didn’t rotate in their 3-0 win against Mount Pleasant in CCC in Jamaica on Thursday night, with Gabriel Pec going a full 90 minutes. With Joseph Paintsil and Riqui Puig still out, those weary legs will be a real disadvantage. Portland won’t stay tight enough in defense to get a win, but should find a way to get a point.
San Diego FC vs Real Salt Lake
Pick: Draw (+280)
The Real Salt Lake youth movement has led to an impressive start, and now Diego Luna is back in the fold. They’re taking on a San Diego side that is playing its fifth match in 15 days, has nearly doubled their xG tally, and is coming off a 4-0 defeat at Toluca on Wednesday night, playing at high altitude. RSL getting a point is a higher likelihood than the odds indicate.
