Chelsea vs Newcastle Predictions and Picks: Palmer Makes Impact in Hard-Fought Primetime Clash

This Monday we have a Premier League game under the floodlights in Chelsea vs. Newcastle. We have all the free betting picks you need for the game at Stamford Bridge in which two of England’s most well-supported clubs meet.

Neither Chelsea nor Newcastle are having the season that their fans expected but both are hoping that a strong finish could push them up the Premier League table. Don’t miss our Chelsea vs. Newcastle tips and predictions using the latest Premier League odds for Monday, March 11.

Chelsea vs Newcastle best odds

EPL predictions for Chelsea vs Newcastle

You can’t beat a game under the floodlights in the Premier League, and this Monday we have what could be a really exciting matchup with Chelsea vs. Newcastle. They’ll be the final two teams to play this gameweek and it has all the ingredients to be a fun game, so let’s get stuck into picking our best bet.

Just four points and three league positions separated the two teams at the beginning of the weekend with Newcastle just inside the top half of the Premier League and Chelsea on the outside looking in. With Newcastle eighth and Chelsea 11th, it’s fair to say that neither set of supporters would have wanted, or expected, their team to be languishing in these positions this season.

Chelsea have spent huge amounts of money over the past couple of transfer windows and much was expected with the appointment of Mauricio Pochettino. Meanwhile, Newcastle would have hoped to build on a fourth-place finish last season, but instead of progression they’ve found themselves getting overtaken by teams who finished below them last season.

With neither club grabbing this season, and in many ways having similar campaigns, it might not be a surprise to find out that our best bet of the game is for the match to finish as a draw, available at odds of +309.

Both sides are missing some of their key players, something which should make this game fairly disjointed. Newcastle have some long-term absentees and some big names out, with no Nick Pope, Joelinton, Sandro Tonali, Kieran Trippier, or Callum Wilson.

Chelsea continues the theme of their season, which has also been injuries. They’re missing Wesley Fofana, Ben Chilwell, Levi Colwill, and Reece James from the backline, as well as Christopher Nkunku from the attack and potentially Conor Gallagher (questionable). It’s fair to say that Chelsea should have done better this season, but they’ve also been hugely unlucky with injuries. It's always hard to build momentum when you are having to change lineup every week, even if you have a big pool of talent to choose from.

Both clubs come into this with two draws in their last five games across all competitions, with Chelsea grabbing a point late against Brentford last week. The reality is that both managers would take a draw here, as it’s crucial that they don’t lose and drop further down the Premier League table. Despite league position, these are two good clubs who can threaten goals.

We’ve seen the last three meetings at Stamford Bridge between Chelsea and Newcastle finish level and with both teams struggling, both missing key players and both teams desperate to avoid defeat, it makes the draw a real likelihood and great value at +309.

My best bet: Draw (+309 at TonyBet)

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Chelsea vs Newcastle same-game parlay

Draw

BTTS - Yes

Cole Palmer goal or assist

+650 at bet365

We’ve seen Both Teams To Score land in 65.4% of Chelsea’s Premier League games at Stamford Bridge this season and they’ve scored in nine of 12 home games this season, with the last time they didn’t score being at the end of October. In addition to that, we’ve seen Both Teams To Score land in 61.% of Newcastle’s road games, and they’ve also scored in every league game of 2024 so far.

The final leg of our same-game parlay is for Chelsea’s Cole Palmer to either score or assist. The 21-year old has been sensational since arriving from Man City in the summer and is arguably their best bit of transfer business this season.

In 22 Premier League games, of which four were from the bench, he’s had 17 goal contributions, scoring 10 and assisting a further seven. Averaging 2.5 shots per game shows that he’s not afraid to attempt to score, and his movement always finds him in dangerous positions, where he can either get a chance at goal or thread through a potential assist for a teammate. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis

My best for Chelsea vs. Newcastle is for the game to finish tied at +309, generous odds for a draw. If you want to back Chelsea you can get -108, which feels too short for a team who have won just 10 of their 26 games this season and have a goal difference of +1. The away win is marginally more appealing with odds of +260 but I’d still favor the draw, which makes the most sense given what we’ve seen from both teams and the number of absentees that they both have.

If you want to back total goals then the Over 2.5 is at -218 and the Under is +179. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61.5% of Chelsea’s games this season but that drops to 50% when they’re at Stamford Bridge. Newcastle have had Over 2.5 goals in a big 74.1% of games, rising to 76.9% when they’re on the road. In fact, the Over has landed in the club’s previous nine games.

However, it’s worth considering that Under 2.5 goals has landed in each of the last six meetings between these clubs at Stamford Bridge. I have no strong lean here and would suggest this as a market to avoid on Monday.

Chelsea vs Newcastle game info

Chelsea vs Newcastle key injuries

Chelsea: Christopher Nkunku STR (Out), Welsey Fofana CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Levi Colwill CB (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Benoit Badiashile CB (Questionable), Conor Gallagher CM (Out).
Newcastle: Joelinton CM (Out), Nick Pope GK (Out), Callum Wilson STR (Out), Kieran Trippier RB (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Out), Lewis Hall LB (Out).

Chelsea vs Newcastle recent league form

Teams	Recent Premier League Form
Chelsea	L-L-W-W-W
Newcastle	D-W-L-L-L

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