Chelsea vs Newcastle Picks and Predictions: Little Motivation Means Boring Affair

With Chelsea's season ending long ago and Newcastle already secured in the fourth Champions League spot, our EPL betting picks expect this Sunday showdown to be a boring one — read more below.

Last Updated: May 27, 2023 3:32 PM ET Read Time: 4 min
Kai Havertz Chelsea EPL
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After three managers, over $350M in transfer fees, and a bottom-half finish, this nightmare season can’t end soon enough for Chelsea, who host Newcastle on Sunday to wrap up their Premier League schedule.

The Blues start the day in 12th place after collecting just one win from their last 13 games and had the look of a team already in vacation mode in an embarrassing 4-1 loss to Manchester United at Old Trafford on Thursday.

With their ticket for the Champions League next season already stamped, Newcastle didn’t have the same spark in their 0-0 draw with Leicester on Monday, but a long injury list means the visitors will likely lean on their starters again here.

We break down the key storylines and odds in our Chelsea vs Newcastle free betting picks for this Sunday, May 28 showdown.

Chelsea vs Newcastle best odds

Chelsea vs Newcastle picks and predictions

It’s somehow appropriate that Chelsea are finishing the season against Newcastle, the team that’s crashed the party and grabbed the Champions League spot that the Blues were surely eyeing back in August.

Given all the turbulence at Stamford Bridge this season, there’s no reason to think the hosts will look any more cohesive on Sunday. Chelsea haven’t won at home in the league since March 4, and I don’t expect them to get out of that rut here.

The Blues have looked lost under Lampard, with Thursday’s capitulation at Old Trafford shining a spotlight on how much work lies ahead for Mauricio Pochettino next season. 

If there was anything at stake for Newcastle, I’d be more interested in their moneyline, but there’s really no urgency for the visitors. That makes the draw a more appealing option.

Eddie Howe’s men have drawn two of their last three games, while Chelsea served up an entertaining 2-2 scoreline against Nottingham Forest in their last outing on home turf. Only Brentford have drawn more league games than Newcastle this season.

There could be a sleepy, end-of-season vibe around this fixture, and I like these odds for the teams to share the points on Sunday.

My best bet: Draw (+278 at Pinnacle)

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Chelsea vs Newcastle side analysis

It says everything about Chelsea’s season that it’s no real surprise to see Newcastle as slight favorites on the road here — it’s just a fair reflection of these two teams’ current trajectories. After some calamitous defensive breakdowns at Old Trafford, the Blues could be just as stretched against Newcastle’s pace and movement in attack.

While the visitors may be tempted to give Callum Wilson and Alexander Isak a rest, I expect both to feature, especially with Wilson in clinical form (eight goals in his last seven games). However, Allan Saint-Maximin and Anthony Gordon could both see bigger roles, while youngster Elliot Anderson continues to shine in midfield.

One unavoidable change for Howe comes from Nick Pope’s absence with a finger injury and means Martin Dubravka will deputize between the sticks, while the visitors’ midfield depth is thin without Joelinton and Joe Willock.

That should give Chelsea some openings, and the Blues were wasteful in the first half on Thursday as Conor Gallagher, Kai Havertz, and Mykhailo Mudryk all made a mess of scoring chances. With some of the club’s youngsters being given a chance down the stretch of this miserable season, the hosts should be sharper here.

While Newcastle edged the Blues at St. James’ Park in their clash back in November, Chelsea had won the four prior meetings without conceding a goal.

Chelsea vs Newcastle Over/Under analysis

Chelsea have scored in four of their five games this month, and their lowly league position overshadows the regularity of goalmouth action in their fixtures. Four of their last five outings have featured four or more goals, while Newcastle’s two prior games had brought nine total goals before the stalemate on Monday.

In their games this week, both of these teams were guilty of having a lot of possession but doing little with it. Chelsea had almost 60% of the ball on Thursday but only got on the scoresheet with a late Joao Felix consolation goal. It’s telling that in a season where Erling Haaland has smashed previous goalscoring records, Chelsea’s top scorer in the Premier League is Havertz with seven goals.

Newcastle had a whopping 78% of the possession in their 0-0 draw against Leicester last time out, but only hit the target with four of their 23 shots. I see a more clinical day ahead for Howe’s men here, and the Over on 2.5 total goals is worth a look.

Chelsea vs Newcastle game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, London, England
Date: Sunday, May 28, 2023
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: fuboTV

Chelsea vs Newcastle key injuries

Chelsea: Mason Mount M (Questionable), Raheem Sterling F (Out), N’Golo Kante M (Out), Reece James D (Out), Marc Cucurella D (Out), Ben Chilwell D (Out), Benoit Badiashile D (Out), Armando Broja F (Out).
Newcastle: Jacob Murphy M (Probable), Nick Pope G (Out), Joelinton M (Out), Joe Willock M (Out), Matt Ritchie M (Out), Emil Krafth D (Out), Jamaal Lascelles D (Out).

Chelsea vs Newcastle recent form

Teams Last five matches
Chelsea Chelsea L-D-W-D-L
Newcastle Newcastle W-L-D-W-D

Chelsea vs Newcastle weather

Cloudy, dry conditions are expected at Stamford Bridge on Sunday, with temperatures in the high-60s and a moderate breeze for the players to navigate.

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