We've already seen a number of big games in the Premier League this week with rivals facing off in exciting tilts. Thursday’s sole game doesn’t have quite the hype but it’s hugely important for both teams involved and gives us a chance to find some interesting betting angles.
So who comes out on top? Can Burnley continue their attempts at pulling off the great escape? Don’t miss our Burnley vs. Southampton tips and predictions.
Burnley vs Southampton match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Burnley vs Southampton betting tips
Predictions made on 4/20/2022 at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Burnley vs Southampton game info
• Location: Turf Moor, Burnley, England
• Date: Thursday, April 21, 2022
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock, DAZN
Burnley vs Southampton betting preview
Weather
A sunny day in Northern England should see the game kick off with temperatures in the upper 50s.
Injuries
Burnley: Johann Gudmundsson RM (Out), Erik Pieters LB (Out), Ben Mee CB (Out), Ashley Westwood CM (Out).
Southampton: Alex McCarthy GK (Out).
Burnley vs Southampton predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
After a glut of midweek Premier League games, we only have one match on Thursday with Burnley welcoming Southampton to Turf Moor in an encounter that could well be key to their Premier League future, with the club teetering on the brink of relegation.
Mid-table Southampton come into this game effectively safe on 39 points but also without a chance of European competition, meaning their season is effectively over, so it wouldn’t be a shock if some players were already planning summer holidays.
Burnley certainly won’t be looking ahead to their vacations just yet with the club sitting 18th in the Premier League, chasing the likes of Everton and Leeds for survival. Last week, the club shocked the world when they sacked long-serving manager Sean Dyche. Man saw this as a huge mistake and one that condemned them to the drop. But a 1-1 draw against West Ham on Sunday might have eased those fears a touch.
While new caretaker manager Michael Jackson’s team wasn't bad against West Ham, they gave up the lead. It wasn’t a thriller but it’s the sort of result that would have made the manager scream when he woke up on Monday and had to address the man in the mirror. Their position in the league table is dangerous with relegation calling. To beat it, they’ll need get something from this game against Southampton.
They have a chance against this Southampton team, who've been wildly inconsistent, lurching between very good and quite poor. They managed to beat Arsenal 1-0 at the weekend, putting up a rearguard action that saw them win despite half the amount of shots and just 24% possession. If you look back at both team’s records over the past five Premier League games, they’re identical with one win, one draw, and three losses apiece. That’s something that will give Jackson hope that he could get three points here, something that might manage to earn the Burnley job on a full-time basis.
It's expected that Burnley will line up in a 4-4-2 with Jay Rodriguez partnering Wout Weghorst up top. The tall Dutchman has failed to bring his Bundesliga form to the Premier League, scoring just twice in 13 games since his January move from Wolfsburg, where he’d scored six in 17. We’ll also see Jack Cork partnering Josh Brownhill in the midfield, with Brownhill coming back into the team after the horrifically graphic injury to Ashley Westwood in the last game. A Cork and Brownhill midfield doesn’t overly excite and doesn’t offer much creativity. Jackson will look to get that from the wings with Maxwel Cornet and Dwight McNeil on the flanks.
Ralph Hasenhuttl has a fairly healthy squad and will send them out in a 3-4-3, most likely featuring the same players after their brilliant defensive performance against Arsenal. James Ward-Prowse will continue to be their main creative outlet and he looks to transition from defense to attack. You’d expect Southampton to find some success on the wings with Valentino Livramento and Kyle Walker-Peters offering a lot going forward and facing Burnley’s wingers, who aren’t that sound defensively.
Goals have been a problem for both teams this season, with Southampton scoring 38 in the Premier League and Burnley just 26. Neither team is overly dangerous in attack and this should lead to a fairly low-scoring game, one I expect to end in a draw, either 0-0 or potentially 1-1. Neither team can be relied on to leave with three points and the draw offers far juicier odds than either.
Prediction: Draw (+240 at DraftKings)
Over/Under analysis
You know already that I’m expecting a low-scoring draw so I won’t drag this out, but I recommend backing Under 2.5 goals in this one.
In Burnley's past five games — both home and away — they’ve only seen three or more goals once, even managing to keep free scoring Manchester City to just two goals.
Southampton have a very stark difference in their home and away form. At home, the Under has won 64.7% of the time, but on the road, they’ve been far more open and have conceded a lot more goals.
Given the quality and form of both teams Under 2.5 goals is worth a wager at -110.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (-110 at bet365)
Best bet
Thankfully, the cameras didn’t linger too long when Ashley Westwood had his horrific injury on Sunday, but you could see from the reactions of the players that it was sickening. Josh Brownhill was a regular starter under Sean Dyche but was benched for Michael Jackson’s first game in charge. Now, he’ll be reinstated to the lineup and I love the odds on him getting booked.
Stuart Atwell is officiating the game and although he’s not a ref who gives out that many cards, you have to think that Brownhill is at risk of getting one on Thursday. The 26-year old has nine cards in 25 starts in the heart of the midfield and will be playing without his regular partner in Westwood.
Given that this game is crucial to their survival hopes, you can see some rash challenges taking place. DraftKings has this at +400, which are really generous odds, especially when others sportsbooks have this as short as +225. Grab the value on that +400 now.
Pick: Josh Brownhill to get booked (+400 at DraftKings)
