Brentford vs Man City Predictions and Picks: Big City Dreaming

Man City will enter Monday's game knowing three points is vital to either keep pace, or inch closer to Liverpool. While Brentford may be plucky, our EPL betting picks expect Man City to be focused on the task at hand and collect a vital three points.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Feb 3, 2024 • 08:00 ET • 4 min read
Julian Alvarez Man City EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

On Monday we have the final Premier League game in the matchweek with Brentford vs Manchester City, and we have the soccer picks you need for the game. Brentford aren’t on a great run of form but they have been boosted since Ivan Toney returned from his ban. However, it’ll be a tough test against Man City, who won the treble last season and entered the weekend in second behind Liverpool in the race for the Premier League. 

This is set to be a tough test for Brentford but can they defy the soccer odds and squeeze anything from the game? Don’t miss our Brentford vs Manchester City tips and predictions to find out.

Brentford vs Man City best odds

EPL predictions for Brentford vs Man City

The final game of this Premier League week takes place on Monday with Brentford vs. Man City at the Gtech Community Stadium. It’s a small but modern stadium, beautifully built with fans close to the pitch. It’ll be lit up with floodlights on Monday as Brentford host Man City at 8 pm local time.

These two clubs were split by 14 positions and 24 points at the start of the weekend with Man City trying to chase down the Premier League leaders Liverpool, while Brentford are looking to avoid the drop. In truth, Brentford shouldn’t be in the mix for relegation. They came into this weekend four points clear of the drop and with Ivan Toney back in the squad they should have more than enough to escape, and will be starting ton look upwards.

Our best bet for this game is for Man City to win and Both Teams to Score which you can find at odds of +175. That really leaps off the screen given what we’ve seen from both teams this season and I think we’re getting real value on those odds.

I’m not going to shock anyone by backing Man City to win. They started the weekend second in the Premier League, even if it was on goal difference to Arsenal. Last season they won all but 10 games in the Premier League and they’re already at seven with 17 left to play, which probably tells you a little about the team. They started the season poorly by their own high standards, dropping points and looking like they had a hangover after their incredible treble-winning scenes. However, over the past month, they’ve started to look like the team we know, that’s been aided by the return of Kevin De Bruyne from injury, who takes this team to another level.

They’ve won their past four league games on the bounce, something only matched by Liverpool. If they have turned a corner, which I believe they have, then it’s bad news for the rest of the Premier League, because when City are good, they are seriously good. 

Brentford have had a poor season, mostly down the absence of Ivan Toney, but they’ve given up 36 goals in 21 games which I think is a real concern now they’re about to face Man City, especially with Erling Haaland returning from injury midweek. 

We also backing Both Teams to Score in this and if you look at the numbers you’ll see that Man City have allowed the opposition to score in all but two of their away wins all season long. Not only that but in 45.5% of their road games this season they’ve not only won but they’ve seen both teams scoring. It’s a trend that has been strong all year and with Brentford now having the firepower of Toney it should continue.

My best bet: Man City to win and Both Teams to Score  (+175 at TonyBet)

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Brentford vs Man City same-game parlay

Man City moneyline

Ivan Toney anytime goal

Mad Roerslev to be booked

We are adding two more legs to our best bet of Man City to win and Both Teams to Score. You can find the full reasoning for that above. You’ll also notice our Same Game Parlay doesn’t feature the Both Teams to Score market but that’s because the Brentford goalscorer means it isn’t needed.

That goal scorer is, of course, Ivan Toney. The 27-year-old returned in January from a ban that had kept him off the pitch all season. He’s now played twice in the Premier League and scored in both goals. He’s averaging three shots per game, the highest number in the Brentford squad and the play runs through him.

Not only that but he takes penalties, which further increases his chances of scoring. With Man City being weaker defensively this season and averaging over one goal against per game, there’s a real chance a Brentford player scores and Toney is the man most likely to do it.

Then to wrap up the Same Game Parlay we’re going to bet on Mads Roerslev to be booked. This is a slightly left-field chase but there’s a method behind the madness. 

In 17 games, 10 of which were starts, he’s averaged 1.3 tackles per game and 0.5 fouls committed per game. However, he’s going to be matched up against Man City’s Jeremy Doku. The Belgian winger has been fouled 1.5 times per game in the Premier League and has been a booking magnet because of his blend of speed and trickery baiting defenders into making challenges. It’s going to be a tough game for Roerslev and he'll be found guilty of bringing down City’s number 10.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brentford vs Man City side and Over/Under analysis

I can’t see anything else but a Man City win on Monday but at -256 on the moneyline, it’s not a bet that I’d personally consider making. The Brentford home win is +635 but it’s so hard to see, as is the draw at +385.

There’s also very little value to be had on the Total Goals market either, with Over 2.5 goals coming in at -182 and the Under at +145. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in a huge 81.8% of Brentford’s games at the Gtech this season and it’s also landed in the same percentage of Man City’s away games this year. 

Not intended for use in MA.
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Brentford vs Man City game info

Location: Gtech Community Stadium, London, England
Date: Monday, February 5, 2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock Premium, fubo TV, Sling Blue, Hulu + Live TV
Weather: 52F, Dry and cloudy

Brentford vs Man City key injuries

Brentford: Rico Henry LB (Out), Bryan Mbeumo FWR (Out), Aaron Hickey FB (Out), Kevin Schade FWR (Out), Yoane Wissa FWR (Out), Frank Onyeka CDM (Out), Saman Ghoddos FB (Out)
Man City: N/A

Brentford vs Man City recent league form

Teams Recent Premier League Form
Brentford Brentford L-W-L-L-L
Man City Man City W-W-W-W-D

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