The Philadelphia Union look to stay atop the MLS Eastern Conference when they host Inter Miami at Subaru Park in Philadelphia on Saturday night.
The Union are enjoying an eight-match unbeaten run at home this season in all competitions, and will be looking for their first-ever win over Lionel Messi. The Argentine superstar will be hoping to turn around his side’s form, having scored just two goals in his last seven matches.
The visitors have lost five of their last seven matches across all competitions, and our Philadelphia Union vs. Inter Miami predictions and free betting picks for Saturday, May 24 explain why that poor form is likely to continue.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami picks and predictions
My Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami best bet: Philadelphia Union moneyline (+120 at bet365)
What do you get when the highest-scoring team in MLS hosts one of the worst defenses in the league? You get an easy choice for the best bet, especially when it’s at plus-odds.
I fully expected the Philadelphia Union to be even-money favorites at best on the 3-way line. So, imagine my surprise when I saw they were +120 to win at home against an Inter Miami side that has coughed up 10 goals in their last three matches.
The Union sit atop the Eastern Conference, winners of four of their last five in the league and three straight in all competitions. They’ve not lost since April 12, and will want revenge for a 2-1 defeat in Miami earlier that month.
The Union out-shot the Herons 19-7 in that outing, and managed just one goal despite a 2.20 xG mark. But Lionel Messi scored the winning goal just two minutes after coming in off the bench, and a late goal from the Union just wasn’t enough to share the spoils.
Saturday will see a different story. The Union are allowing the second-fewest shots on target per 90 minutes played, and they’ve outscored opponents 17-8 at home in eight matches played.
On the flip side, Inter Miami’s road form hasn’t been great. They’ve taken just 11 points from a possible 18, conceding nine goals while scoring 11. And in all competitions, they’ve lost three straight away from home.
The wear and tear of travel and a busy schedule have taken their toll on the Herons and their stars. Luis Suarez and Jordi Alba have shown weariness of late, and Messi’s scoring woes have led to offensive struggles at times. Inter Miami have scored one goal or fewer in eight of their last 12 matches.
Since Messi joined Inter Miami, they’ve never lost to the Union. Take Philadelphia to end a four-match losing streak against the Herons, as they capitalize on a reeling and aging squad.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami same-game parlay (SGP)
Philadelphia Union moneyline
Tai Baribo to score
Philadelphia Union Over 2 goals
Tai Baribo is red hot at the moment. His 11 goals — from just 6.9 xG — lead the league, and he’s scored four of Philadelphia’s six goals over their last three matches. He should’ve had a goal in the first meeting with Inter Miami, but was denied on a header from just feet out.
Inter Miami’s back line has recently looked more like matadors than professional footballers. I’ll be surprised if Baribo doesn’t get at least one or two great runs in behind or through the back line, and he’s finishing too well right now not to capitalize.
Had Philadelphia’s money line not been priced the way it was, I’d have looked hard at the Union to score three or more goals. The Union will be able to prey on a defense that has conceded 3+ goals in five of its last six matches in league play, and win this one going away.
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami odds
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami live odds
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia Union +120 | Inter Miami +200
- Draw: +265
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-176) | Under 2.5 (+129
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami game info
| Location | Suburu Park, Chester, PA |
| Date | Saturday, 5-24-2025 |
| Time | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | APPLE TV |
| Weather | 61 F, 0% PoP, winds 9-22 mph. |
Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami key injuries
Philadelphia Union: Andre Blake GK (Out), Neil Pierre D (Out), Ian Glavinovich D (Out), Jovan Lukic M (Out).
Inter Miami: David Ruiz M (Out), Drake Callender GK (Out), Baltasar Rodriguez M (Out), Allen Obando F (Out), Ryan Sailor D (Out).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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