An exciting midtable clash is on deck for Sunday in Premier League betting, as a resurgent Aston Villa side host Leicester City.
Villa's gotten an immediate uptick in their results since Steven Gerrard took over as the club's manager, and they have a great chance at three wins in four against a Leicester team off to a sluggish start.
Here are our soccer betting picks for Aston Villa vs. Leicester City, with kickoff on December 5.
Aston Villa vs Leicester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Aston Villa vs Leicester City betting tips
Predictions made on 12/3/2021 at 5:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some EPL betting, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Aston Villa vs Leicester City game info
• Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, England
• Date: Sunday, December 5, 2021
• Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports, DAZN
Aston Villa vs Leicester City betting preview
Weather
A wet week in Birmingham will be halted on Sunday, with clouds and some sunshine forecast on a dry afternoon. At kickoff, temperatures are forecast at 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Aston Villa: Danny Ings ST (Questionable), Leon Bailey AM (Out), Bertrand Traore ST (Out), Trezeguet LW (Out).
Leicester City: James Justin RB (Out), Youri Tielemans CM (Out).
Aston Villa vs Leicester City predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Things had gotten bleak under former Villa manager Dean Smith. The defensive record was poor and a once-fluid attack had grown stale as a result of an ill-fated formation change. Smith's doomed 2021-22 season has only appeared worse since Gerrard took charge, with Villa winning two in a row before falling to, but holding their own against, Manchester City midweek. However, Villa's early returns under Gerrard aren't exactly an accurate representation of their play.
In their first win, against Brighton, Villa found two late goals to win 2-0 but the expected goals tally was nearly equal (0.6 to 0.4 for Villa) while Brighton dominated possession before falling victim to Villa's excellent opener. Their subsequent 2-1 win over Crystal Palace saw them more than doubled in xG, 0.9 to 0.4, with Palace carrying play but unable to crack Villa's defense until the very end.
So while Villa's organization and performances have improved under Gerrard, it's early to believe they'll vault back into the top half of the table over the remainder of the season. The optimism around the team, however, is more than can be said about Leicester.
After two strong seasons, the Foxes are undergoing a difficult season as they sit 10th in the league with an underwhelming backline. But while the defensive record doesn't appear to be improving anytime soon, with Leicester last keeping a clean sheet in the league in the first game of the season in mid-August, their threat going forward will continue.
Jamie Vardy is still scoring goals for fun despite his advanced age, while James Maddison is now playing the best soccer of his season. Despite nearly every attacker outside of Vardy and now, Maddison, undergoing poor seasons, Leicester's among the top teams in most attacking metrics. As has been the case for over five years, the Foxes' counter-attack with Vardy at the center of it all is a sustainable approach for scoring at a high rate.
Villa are playing better at the moment but it's still very early in Gerrard's tenure, with growing pains sure to come. Those pains were avoided in their two wins to begin his time at the club but against a more talented Leicester squad, with an attack capable of punishing any defense in the league, they'll suffer a slight blip.
Prediction: Draw (+226)
Over/Under analysis
Though Aston Villa's defensive record has already improved under Gerrard, with the team yet to allow 1.0 xG or more in a game, Leicester City's attack — and Vardy's goalscoring prowess — has remained nearly opponent-proof.
The Foxes have only failed to score three times this season, against the stellar defenses of Manchester City and Chelsea, and against Arsenal, a game in which they created 1.2 xG and were unlucky not to score. Leicester are fourth in xG, sixth in goals, and create quality chances, with no team getting a higher percentage of their shots on target (38.8).
With Vardy in typical Vardy form and Maddison finding his footing behind him, their goalscoring record won't be halted by Villa.
However, while Leicester's attack is nearly a sure thing, so too is their poor defense. Leicester have kept one clean sheet this year, in mid-August, and have conceded multiple goals in nine of 14 games. The two most important parts of their defensive setup last season, center-back Caglar Soyuncu and Kasper Schmeichel, are both having poor seasons while the backline's organization has seemingly been nonexistent.
With the total sitting at 2.5, two quality attacks, and one terrible backline partaking here, we're going Over on the total.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-116)
Best bet
A new manager has an amazing way of reinvigorating talented players and that appears to be the case at Villa Park for Ollie Watkins. After scoring 14 goals in his debut season in the Premier League last year, Watkins was suffering from Smith's unsure tactics this year with two goals in his first nine games of the year.
In the three games since Gerrard took over, however, he has buried two goals including midweek against Manchester City. Watkins is the focal point of Villa's attack and with Leon Bailey sidelined, the English striker will be all the more important to the host's goal hopes.
Against a woeful Leicester City defense, Aston Villa are sure to score at home on Sunday. For a third time in four games, it will be Watkins who does it for his club.
Pick: Ollie Watkins anytime goal (+165)
