Arsenal vs FC Porto Predictions and Picks: Gunners Bag Spot in Next Round

We have a monster matchup with Arsenal vs. Porto in the Champions League this Tuesday, March 12.

Arsenal went to Portugal as favorites but lost 1-0 to an inspired defensive performance from Porto. Now the Portuguese side heads to London knowing that a clean sheet would send them through.

Can the Gunners overturn defeat against Porto? Don’t miss our Arsenal vs. Porto free betting picks to find out.

Arsenal vs FC Porto best odds

Arsenal vs FC Porto picks and predictions

The second leg ties in the Champions League Round of 16 begins with a bang as Arsenal host Porto. This already feels like a huge moment for the Gunners, who need to overturn a 1-0 deficit to reach the next round. Qualification would also be a seismic moment for Porto, especially to overturn a team who were expected to beat them.

Arsenal went into the away leg at the Estadio do Dragao as favorites and dominated with 65% possession but Porto put on a defensive masterclass, managing to halt the Gunners, frustrating them and stifling their attacks. 

Then in the fourth minute of injury time, Porto managed to seal a late winner for a famous victory, a truly great defensive performance, in which they managed to stop Arsenal from registering a single shot on target. 

They’ll be confident heading to the Emirates that they can keep Arsenal at bay. After all, they’ve done it once already. However, in front of the home crowd, can they keep the Gunners out? It’s going to be a tough game for Arsenal but my best bet is Draw/Arsenal on the halftime/fulltime market at a big price of +250.

If there’s anything that we need to take from that first leg it’s that Porto can defend. This is not a vintage Porto team by any means but in Pepe and Otavio, they have two very talented defenders.

Otavio has impressed since arriving from Famalicao in January and the 21-year-old has formed a strong partnership with Pepe, who despite being 20 years his senior has immense knowledge and experience, and is still a good defender, even if his physical abilities are on the decline. Porto managed to limit Arsenal to zero shots on target in the first leg and they will be looking to frustrate Arsenal again here.

In the first half, we’re unlikely to see Arsenal go gung-ho, they’ll try and score but they won’t go overboard, knowing that a mistake could gift Porto a goal and seal the tie for the away side.

With that in mind, it makes sense to back the draw in the first half. We know how Porto will set up and how effective they were last time out, and Arsenal will also not push forward and take huge risks.

In the second half, Arsenal will need to throw caution to the wind to score, with a 1-0 win on the night at least securing extra time and a further opportunity to beat Porto. Arsenal scored 16 goals in six Champions League group games and are the leading scorers in the Premier League, so they’ll have full belief in their ability to score in the second half if need be.

At +250, you’re getting a good price on a strong defensive showing again from Porto, slowing down Arsenal — at least for the first half — before the Gunners go on and take the tie.

My best bet: Draw/Arsenal HT/FT (+250 at TonyBet)

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Arsenal vs FC Porto same-game parlay

Draw/Arsenal HT/FT

Bukayo Saka to score

Arsenal to qualify

+750 at bet365

We already know the first leg with Draw/Arsenal but in addition, we're adding two further legs, the first of which is for Bukayo Saka to score. Saka is the team’s star player and despite being just 22 years old he’s a leader who inspires those around him.

His directness has always been one of his best attributes but in addition to speed and passing, he’s also improved his finishing this term. He’s had a big season, already scoring 13 in the league and another three in the Champions League, and despite defenders knowing that he’s going to move in from his position on the right wing, it’s still incredibly hard for them to stop him.

If Arsenal are to win, Saka is surely likely to be the player firing them to the next round.

We’re also backing Arsenal to qualify. The initial best bet only involves them winning on the night, meaning a 1-0 victory cashes the bet, despite the actual tie going to extra time to decide who qualifies.

By including Arsenal to qualify here it means we win if they end up winning via extra time or penalties, or — as is most likely — they win by 2+ goals in regulation.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Arsenal vs FC Porto side and Over/Under analysis

If you’re a fan of betting the moneyline, then you’re going to struggle to find value on Arsenal vs. Porto.

Mikel Arteta’s team are -417 favorites and although they’ll likely win, especially at the Emirates, it’s a very short price and there are far better ways of backing this game as discussed above. You can get +540 for the draw or an away win at +1,200. Arsenal have a -313 price to qualify with Porto at +220 despite already holding a 1-0 aggregate lead.

If you’re looking to back the total, you can get Over 2.5 goals at -159 or Under 2.5 goals at +135. It’s a tough market to call in this game, with Arsenal needing goals to overturn the deficit and having been in great form.

However, we’ve seen Porto play great defensively in the first leg, and with odds of +135 compared to -150 for the Over, you’re probably getting better value by playing the Under.

Arsenal vs FC Porto game info

Arsenal vs FC Porto key injuries

Arsenal: Jurrien Timber DEF (Out), Gabriel Martinelli FWR (Questionable), Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Questionable).
FC Porto: Ivan Marcano CB (Out), Zaudi Sanusi LB (Out).

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