*** Texas vs. Bama Write-up (Long) ***

In my pre-season VT/Bama write-up, I said that Bama would be a much better team this season than last even though the pre-season magazines and most people were predicting otherwise.  I also predicted that Bama would win the SEC West, beat Florida in the SECCG, and go on to beat the Big 12 champion in the national title game.  Many laughed, but here we are.

First I would like to say that even though I’ve done quite a bit of statistical analysis on both teams, statistics won’t be the basis for this write-up.  I will include some of what I’ve done in other posts in this thread for those who are interested.  But statistics in bowl games are largely irrelevant IMO because bowl games are always out-of-conference games and each conference is really a league unto itself.  In this case Texas plays in the Big 12 and Bama in the SEC, and those to conferences are very different in the way they approach and play football.  Instead, I will focus more on how I think these teams matchup, and what effect I believe these matchups will have on the outcome of this game.  See also my thread on ”Why You Shouldn’t Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Games.”

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100610099

Before I do so however, I just want to make the point that the best and most consistent formula for winning football games (at all levels) is not some fancy-schmanzy offensive du jour.  It is lining up and physically dominating the opposition in the trenches.  When you can do that week in and week out, it is by far the most consistent formula for winning, and consistency is a very good thing for those of us who wager.  I could cite literally endless examples of this in both the college and pro game, but because we’re talking about Alabama anyhow, we really need not look any father than the Florida/Bama game wherein the Crimson Tide ran the ball 17 consecutive times in the 4^th quarter without throwing a pass to close out the game against the #1 team in the country.

Bama is the epitome of smash-mouth football which explains why they have methodically won 25 games over the last two seasons.  Bama has dominated every team they’ve played in the trenches thus far this season, and there really is no reason to believe they won’t do the same thing against a Texas team not accustomed to playing that brand of football.  Bama is all about imposing their will on both sides of the ball.

Texas (much like Florida) employs a defense that is small but very fast, and is loaded with blue-chip athletes.  This type of defense is very effective when playing against the spread offenses of the Big 12, but is ill-suited to stop a team that is as powerful at the point of attack as Alabama.  Texas’s defensive coordinator Will Muschamp (a Nick Saban protégé) knows he has to match Bama’s physicalness in the trenches, but knowing and doing are two very different things.   And the problem for Texas is that they are not accustomed to playing such teams, and they can’t replicate Bama’s power in practice.  And if you can’t practice against it, I think your chances defending it successfully in a game situation are remote.  Like I always say, you can’t fake being physical.  You either have it or you don’t.

After playing Bama, Florida’s defense lamented about how difficult Ingram and Richardson (who is better than Ingram) are to tackle.  In order for Texas to successfully defend Bama’s running attack, their D-line and LBers will have to play lights out, because if Texas has to rely on their secondary to consistently make stops in the run game, they will be in for a very long day.  That is so because Texas is very light on the back end (175 lbs corners and 195 lbs safeties).  There are no 220lb run stoppers in the secondary.  Their secondary is essentially comprised of 4 conerbacks designed to defend the spread offenses they regularly face in the Big 12, not to stuff power RBs like Ingram & Richardson (have I mentioned that Richardson is better than Ingram).

*** CONTINUED ***

*** CONTINUED ***

In order to keep more men in the box to stop the run, I think that Muschamp will probably roll the dice and play man with his corners, and at times, utilizing safety help over top.  Bama will probably see some exotic robber packages, and will rarely, if ever, see a zone look.  This will allow Texas to dedicate more people to stopping the run.  Bama’s physical receivers, however, could also cause Texas’s small defensive backs some heartburn both in coverage and YAC.

Offensively Bama will try to do to Texas what they did to Florida - neutralize their team speed by running right at them.  Overall, however, they will aim to be fundamentally sound and balanced.  They will mix in a few exotic looks to spread Texas out to open some holes in the running game and to create some mismatches in the passing game particularly for TE Colin Peek.

Conversely, Alabama is very big on defense.  Bama’s corners are bigger than Texas’s safeties, and Bama’s safeties are the size of Texas’s linebackers.  Based on Bama’s size, one would probably instinctively conclude that Bama is slow on that side of the ball, but nothing can be farther from the truth.  Bama’s corners love to play bump and run, which allows Kirby Smart a lot of flexibility in mixing up his defensive play calls thereby confusing opposing QBs.  Because Texas does not have a meaningful running game that would scare anyone, particularly someone as strong up the middle as Bama, expect Bama to be in nickel and dime sets most of the game.  That means we’ll see more of players like Marcell Dareus, Marquis Johnson and Robby Green, and a lot less of players like Mount Cody, the slow white boy Cory Reamer and Justin Woodall.

The knock on Colt McCoy is his arm strength on the long throws outside.  Accordingly, Bama will try to take away the short over-the-middle passes and force everything to the outside.   They will accomplish this by lining up on the inside shoulder and sitting on the inside routes, and by having LBers undercut the middle routes effectively taking away those short over the middle throws.  This will force McCoy to throw over the top of McClain to exploit the middle of the field, and hopefully force McCoy into some mistakes.  This may also force McCoy to hold the ball a little longer and should give pass rushers a little more time to find their mark.

Offensively I think Texas will take a page out of Utah’s and Auburn’s playbook by going very up-tempo in hopes of catching Bama in some personnel mismatches.  Texas is, after all, a more talented version of Utah who only rushed for 13 yards but threw for 336 against Bama in last year’s Sugar Bowl.  I think for Texas to have a chance to come away with a victory they’ll need to get Utah/Auburn–like start by jumping out on top early and forcing Bama to play catch-up.  That should prevent Bama from controlling the tempo of the game.

It’s no secret that the key to beating McCoy is to get pressure on him.  Expect Bama to try and confuse McCoy and his O-line by bringing rushers from all from all angles.  Unlike the game plan versus Tebow which was not to sack him, but to force him to throw from the pocket, Bama will try to flush and frustrate McCoy every chance they get.

As I said in my pre-season write-up, Texas is one of the few teams in the country that possess elite talent.  But Texas has not faced a more complete team this season than Alabama.  Alabama is more balanced on offense than any team Texas has played thus far, and have best running backs in the nation.  Alabama's defense is fiercer, faster and more athletic than any team Texas has played so far.  Ultimately, however, I think Alabama will be far too physical for Texas on both sides of the ball.  I would expect Texas to lose at least two starters due to injuries during the course of the game.  As I stated above, the team that dominates in the trenches usually dominates on the scoreboard.  Because of that, I render the same opinion about this game that I did in the Florida game which is that not only will Bama win this game, they will do so convincingly.

Don’t be fooled.  Play on Bama and the SEC.  Anything less than 7 is like manna from heaven.

 

great write up. but all i have to say is: heisman jinx. only 2 heisman winners this decade have won their bowl games. carson palmer and matt leinart

Here is the link to my ”Why You Shouldn’t Bet Against the SEC in Bowl Games.”

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=100610099

The link didn't go through on the original post.

 

great write up with a lot of thought and facts....however I am on Texas +5 - I honestly don't think Bama can run it on the Horns Defense...I agree they have not played a team like Bama yet, so I guess we will see what happens..

GL

Excellent writeup. But you didn't include the INTANGIBLES.
True, ALABAMA bigger, faster, stronger but are they really, most importantly, SMARTER? I think not personally but we all have our own opinions. This game will come down to COACHING!! The coach that prepares their team best, will hold the trophy  at  the end  of the night.
We all can't wait and good luck with the TIDE.

I agree that coaching is a huge factor, and I would definitely give the edge to Saban.  An interesting coaching side-note is that Texas offensive coordinator Major Applewhite was Bama's OC in '07, and that Will Muschamp is also a Saban protégé.   But just like the recent BJ Penn/Diego Sanchez fight, the teacher is greater than the student.

I will add that I have a tremendous amount of respect for Muschamp's ability.  If anybody could slow down the Bama juggernaut, Muschamp might be one of the few guys who could get it done.

 yeah right.........Texas Moneyline

 because they're flat out better.......

This chart shows each of Texas's opponents' statistical rushing rank out of all FBS teams, as well as their average rushing yards per game, the amount of yardage gained versus Texas, and the percent of season average each team gained versus Texas.

The bottom of the chart compiles these stats versus top 15, top 30 & top 50 teams.

Texas Opponents

Rush Rank  Opponent          Rush YPG   vs Texas   % vs Texas

24               Oklahoma St.    192             134            69%

25                Texas A&M      190             190          100%

31                La. Monroe       184             101           55%

57                UTEP               151                9            6%

68                Nebraska          141               67          48%

69                Oklahoma         141              -16          -7%

73                UCF                 139               75          54%

81                Missouri           132               74          56%

86                Wyoming          128               85          66%

102               Kansas            112               47          42%

108               Baylor              101                6            6%

113               Colorado            88               42           48%

115               Texas Tech        81                -6           -7%

73                 Average            137              62           45%

                     vs Top 15          N/A            N/A         N/A

                     vs Top 30         191             162          85%

                     vs Top 50         187             142          76%

 

 

Alabama rushing chart

Rush Rank  Opponent     Rush YPG  vs Bama  % vs Bama

  9               Miss St.       228            114              50%

 10              Florida          225              88              39%

 13              Auburn         214             151              71% 

 15              Virginia Tech 206              64               31%

 21              Kentucky      193             133               69%

 28              North Texas  185               61               33%

 33              Ole Miss       183               57               31%

 43              Tennessee     170              74               40%

 78              Arkansas       136              63               46%

 84               LSU              130              95               73%

 91               S. Coarolina   125              64               51%

107               FIU               104                1                 1%

112               Chattanooga   85               48               56%

 49                Average        168               78               46%

                     vs Top 15      218             104               48%

                     vs Top 30      209              102              49%

                     vs Top 50      201                93              42%

 

What really sticks out is how much better competition ALABAMA has faced compared to TEXAS. That's a CLASS issue and that is definitely undeniable here. TX going to need Muschamp and "Opie" to have great gameplans to contend in this one.

The charts I posted, as difficult as they are to read, tend to show that Texas's #1 rush defense is a paper tiger.  Personally I think Ingram and Richardson will raped that defense.

Very good research. 

Didn't read

Texas probably won't try to run much and if they do, it will be more McCoy keeping the ball like we saw last season. I think the reason UT hesitated to do it this season was for fear of Colt getting hurt before this game, as their offense would be truly pathetic without him. 

It's not too late!!!

yes jimmy, yes it is.

Man, to be honest, I played at Bama and I dont know if I can trust them to win by more than 3 but I know these guys and this team personally better than others and any day of the week I lean SEC but this line and spot is just funky. Its been a L0NG time since this team has been here and amazing this is where they are after I was there in 05-06, its a bigger deal than people think.

If u want Bama u already missed the boat bud. Im just tellin you guys there are many details as to why Texas will compete if the Bowl games aren't teaching us anything.. Will Muschamp, they should rename Denny Chimes in his name because he owns our University man and will absolutely lick his chops preparing for a vanilla offense this long. I realize the personnel isn't the same but I promise you Mcelroy wont have 2nd and 1's all game to take advantage of like the UF game where any fuckin clown can be a hero. Lets be real, they will stop the run and make him beat them for the first time in his fuckin life when a team has this long to prepare u better come correct at Muschamp. This is truly the weirdest NC game matchup ever and I would feel awkward as a Bama fan because they have everything to lose in this and Texas is built for this. I just seen how Vegas operates and this is the perfect fuckin setup like ive ever seen where everyone FINALLY thinks the SEC is king and the opponent is just purely outmatched in a single game with a staff that knows the team they are playing like a fucking snoopy strip. I refuse to let my money be stolen is all if Bama wins by a fuckin FG.

This is bowl time, for all the marbles, expect the unexpected, just like we saw in the Bama /Fla game. Stats go out the window. Texas will cover