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* Texas vs. Bama Write-up (Long) *

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phillyfranko

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 3843

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 3:58 AM ET #101

Quote Originally Posted by BigPimpin:

Excellent write-up.

First and foremost,I am a Texas alum ('98), an Austin resident, and a Longhorn fan. But thats where it stops for me in terms of the National Championship game.Lots of Homers in this thread, but truth be told, Texas is over-rated and over-ranked,just like they are "most" years in College Football. A cream-puff schedule, playing against pass-first offenses, and an imbalanced/disproportionate offensive scheme have never been the recipe for a National Championship.

I'll spare myriad apples to oranges comparisons of conferences, games, positions, etc but I must digress in saying a far superior Texas team should have lost to a far inferior Ohio State team LY in the Fiesta Bowl. And if you think that is an irrelevant point, than you have no clue about tomorrow nights matchup.

Bottomline: We are all bettors, and bettors are always looking for an advantage or an edge; In a game that arguably anyone can win, Alabama has both an advantage and an edge.I hope Texas wins, and I think the possibility exists for Texas to win, but Alabama wins.

This is just one game. A huge game but a game that does not merit a huge play with your bankroll. Enjoy the game.

I Love a Respect Texas and Mack Brown and have great Friends in Austin...and I was there Less than a year after they won the Rose Bowl...I Had Texas +7.5 big and I see Alabama here...I Think it will be close and Like the Under more...Good Luck to all...Great Info...want to play big...But a few units is the safe play here....Jimmydafreak enjoyed Orange Bowl In Game and glad you cashed Under 1st H...If I Remember right.

MYSTICRICH

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2006

Posts: 5046

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 4:33 AM ET #102

NICE JOB JIM

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 5:05 AM ET #103

Quote Originally Posted by phillyfranko:

I Love a Respect Texas and Mack Brown and have great Friends in Austin...and I was there Less than a year after they won the Rose Bowl...I Had Texas +7.5 big and I see Alabama here...I Think it will be close and Like the Under more...Good Luck to all...Great Info...want to play big...But a few units is the safe play here....Jimmydafreak enjoyed Orange Bowl In Game and glad you cashed Under 1st H...If I Remember right.

Yes, Iowa and UNDER first half, and Iowa the 2nd half!!! I enjoyed it very much because I won!!! Given the fact that I don't think Texas will score more than 10 points in this game, I think the UNDER is a very solid play. Lost in all of the Bama/Texas talk is a discussion on the total. I do think the UNDER is the right side however.

aspire210

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 19

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 5:24 AM ET #104

Quote Originally Posted by kroch:

thank you sir. just trying to bring reason to the table. this will not be a blowout that so many are sure of.

even Florida last year with all those weapons (Tebow/Murphy/Harvin) was tied with OU going in the 4th...and OU had a much worse defense than Texas does this year.

really OU not only had a "worse" defense but "MUCH worse." You mean the OU that completely shutdown TT, that whopped up on Texas? OU had a better line on BOTH sides of the ball, a better QB and better running backs. The only advantage Tex had at all was better seconardy, and arguabley better recievers. Tex cant whine about last year, if they had handled their business against TT, then their own conference wouldn't have screwed them.

jwheels86

MVP

Joined: Oct, 2008

Posts: 16182

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 6:17 AM ET #105

Quote Originally Posted by jimmydafreak:

you love it

bookieassassin

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10317

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 8:26 AM ET #106

nice write up...looks like you know a lil' football too....match-up wise horns have no shot....
check out these offensive numbers vs 6 of the "tougher" match-ups on their schedule (ou...neb..okie st...col...tech...mizz)
the horns Heisman contender QB?....
     *139-200......1221 yds....6 TD's / 8 INT.....sacked 20 times
       horns tried to run 219 times......gained 571 yds....(2.6/rush)
             what this means is that they are getting their ass whipped
             up front.,...

watching the TCU / BOISE game revealed to me (unfortunately as i liked the frogs).....the most likely way horns win here...the stronger team (tcu > bama).....comes out TIGHT .....presses.....and just can't get out of their own way (Patterson / Saban similar styles)...
the other (boise > texas)......loose.....nothing to lose.....play's their ass off....
the reports i have read suggest that their practice atmosphere .....(texas and boise)....(bama and tcu)......are similar

SO....probably not smart to place your hard earned cash on the event that this MIGHT happen....small bet on a hunch OK....but based on severe issues horns OL will most likely have here.....gotta be bama or nothing

It is better to be feared - than to be loved.

VNAM777

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 192

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 8:30 AM ET #107

Quote Originally Posted by charlielo55:

yeah right.........Texas Moneyline

because they're flat out better.......

VNAM777

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 192

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 8:31 AM ET #108

Quote Originally Posted by aspire210:

really OU not only had a "worse" defense but "MUCH worse." You mean the OU that completely shutdown TT, that whopped up on Texas? OU had a better line on BOTH sides of the ball, a better QB and better running backs. The only advantage Tex had at all was better seconardy, and arguabley better recievers. Tex cant whine about last year, if they had handled their business against TT, then their own conference wouldn't have screwed them.

OU was playing at home vs TT

HotRoute

Hall of Fame

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 25135

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 8:37 AM ET #109

THE-KID

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2007

Posts: 4756

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 8:51 AM ET #110

Agreed!

Alabama is the bet! Everyone that thinks alabama blew their emotional wad in the Florida game will be proven wrong. The let down game only applies when a team either loses the emotional game in question, or they go to a bowl they deem dissapointing. Neither apply here. If you think Alabama is going to come in flat with the National Championship within their grasp, then you are either a Texas fan or are simply reaching!

Texas isn't going to be able to run the ball on Alabama. I have to believe that Saban will double Shipley and rush heavy to rattle McCoy. Several other receivers are going to have to step up for Texas to be able to score. Texas only hope, IMO, is a meltdown from McElroy.

Tall-Tale

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2008

Posts: 133

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 9:20 AM ET #111

UT.........UA

FIRST DOWNS................... 20 ... 16
Rushing..................... 8 ... 8
Passing..................... 12 ... 6
Penalty..................... 0 ... 2
NET YARDS RUSHING............. 74 ... 136
Rushing Attempts............ 36 ... 30
Average Per Rush............ 2.1 ... 4.5
Rushing Touchdowns.......... 0 ... 0
Yards Gained Rushing........ 106 ... 141
Yards Lost Rushing.......... 32 ... 5
NET YARDS PASSING............. 265 ... 120
Completions-Attempts-Int.... 21-37-1 ... 18-29-0
Average Per Attempt......... 7.2 ... 4.1
Average Per Completion...... 12.6 ... 6.7
Passing Touchdowns.......... 1 ... 0
TOTAL OFFENSE YARDS........... 339 ... 256

Good thing they are not playing the real UT tonight. If UT had a kicker Bama wouldnt be playing anyway.

Dexter83

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2009

Posts: 163

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 9:44 AM ET #112

Great write up

Go Tide

rounders1

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2005

Posts: 10

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 10:18 AM ET #113

if u say texas cant score 10 on bama...do u really think bamma can put up 30 on texas...i highly doubt t hat...so how can u only think the under is the right side...by all that your saying shouldnt the under be a cynch based on all your statistical analysis?

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 1:51 PM ET #114

Quote Originally Posted by rounders1:

Yes, as I have said, I think the UNDER is a strong play, and my basis for that play is that I don't believe Texas will be able to score on Bama. I locked in a play on the UNDER when the number was 48 several weeks ago.

I would never use the word "cynch" or "lock" because we all know that anything is possible. I place my wagers based on what I perceive the odds of a particular side of a play to be. In this case I perceive the odds of Bama covering the number to be very high and, accordingly, that's the play I have the most confidence in.

Do I believe that Bama can score 30 on Texas? Of course I do, and why not? They essentially scored in the mid 30s against a better (and similar) defense in the SECCG. Bama absolutely WILL score at least in the mid to high 20s, and they have a decent shot of getting into the 30s. So is a score of something like 34-17 plausible? I think the odds are against it, but of course it is plausible.

Gold_Rush

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 7850

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 1:56 PM ET #115

thanks for clearing that up for me

that blown call never sat well with me even though I had covered

already on the game...I had thought they would have another shot

many thanks, no need to prove it, I take your word on it

had no idea there was such a discussion..

Gold_Rush

Captain

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 7850

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 1:59 PM ET #116

I also think the Under is a good play

Bama - not counting the Florida Blow out- is a great under play

more often than not. They do not give up many points

Terp1135

Prospect

Joined: Mar, 2009

Posts: 175

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:08 PM ET #117

Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:

What really sticks out is how much better competition ALABAMA has faced compared to TEXAS. That's a CLASS issue and that is definitely undeniable here. TX going to need Muschamp and "Opie" to have great gameplans to contend in this one.

The SOS theory has not worked out all bowl season. TCU being example A of it. Just throw SOS out right now and save urself the trouble.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:15 PM ET #118

Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

thanks for clearing that up for me

that blown call never sat well with me even though I had covered

already on the game...I had thought they would have another shot

many thanks, no need to prove it, I take your word on it

had no idea there was such a discussion..

I found this Sports Illustrated article last night nonetheless.

https://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/andy_staples/10/24/alabama-tennessee/index.html

thatguy

Captain

Joined: Mar, 2003

Posts: 8683

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:16 PM ET #119

Quote Originally Posted by jwheels86:

Didn't read

probably cant either.....

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:22 PM ET #120

Quote Originally Posted by bookieassassin:

nice write up...looks like you know a lil' football too....match-up wise horns have no shot....
check out these offensive numbers vs 6 of the "tougher" match-ups on their schedule (ou...neb..okie st...col...tech...mizz)
the horns Heisman contender QB?....
     *139-200......1221 yds....6 TD's / 8 INT.....sacked 20 times
       horns tried to run 219 times......gained 571 yds....(2.6/rush)
             what this means is that they are getting their ass whipped
             up front.,...

watching the TCU / BOISE game revealed to me (unfortunately as i liked the frogs).....the most likely way horns win here...the stronger team (tcu > bama).....comes out TIGHT .....presses.....and just can't get out of their own way (Patterson / Saban similar styles)...
the other (boise > texas)......loose.....nothing to lose.....play's their ass off....
the reports i have read suggest that their practice atmosphere .....(texas and boise)....(bama and tcu)......are similar

SO....probably not smart to place your hard earned cash on the event that this MIGHT happen....small bet on a hunch OK....but based on severe issues horns OL will most likely have here.....gotta be bama or nothing

I think there is almost no chance that Bama comes out shakey like TCU did. This team has a ton of big-game experience, and is the most disciplined team in the nation. They simply don't make mistakes. I think they will come out with ice running through their veins just like they did against Florida. If anyone gets off to a shakey start it will definitely be Texas, and if I were a Texas backer, I would be mildly concerned about that.

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:26 PM ET #121

Quote Originally Posted by thatguy:

probably cant either.....

I'll save you the trouble. Just bet Bama and enjoy the alcohol & popcorn!!!

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:29 PM ET #122

Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:

I also think the Under is a good play

Bama - not counting the Florida Blow out- is a great under play

more often than not. They do not give up many points

You know how it always goes in gambling GR.

2 good defensive teams = OVER, and

2 good offensive teams = UNDER

jimmydafreak

All-Star

Joined: Oct, 2003

Posts: 13951

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:30 PM ET #123

Quote Originally Posted by THE-KID:

Agreed!

Relax!!! McElroy IS NOT going to melt down!!!

Brown8535

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2010

Posts: 74

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 2:37 PM ET #124

Texas has more to play for than Alabama. If you dont think the Florida win was the biggest on their schedule this year, regardless of the outcome on the NC, then your not thinking rationally. During the offseason, do think Alabama was thinking more about the NC or Florida. As an athlete, I can guarantee you it was Florida.

Looking at recent bowl history for Texas, Mack has his boys ready to play. If Alabama comes out hard, great. But how can you say they will come out harder, when for 33 days, everybody is saying Alabama will crush Texas. All the awards circuits, the banquets and such. Texas has a distinct advantage in this department.

Cheers!

nostradamus12

All-Star

Joined: Jun, 2007

Posts: 10740

Posted: Jan. 7, 2010 - 4:53 PM ET #125

Roll Tide, BOL jimmy

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