Posted:
#26
*tailing.
You are looking live!!!! 2018 Week 4 Plays
Posted:
#28
Scal, you were the guy that liked Missouri to cover against Purdue, so I'm not sure why you're talking there. You've been wrong about a lot of stuff. I believe I probably called you out on a few bets a while ago that you didn't like or something. I do this to everyone though. And I do to save the casual bettor money because this forum is dominated by about 6-7 posters and the average guy who comes on here thinks of em like Jesus. The capping here overall has been bad - the best bets being missed every week. And yeah the "best bets" is subjective, but to me world class cappers would be picking up on stuff that some of you haven't. How about no one being on LSU this week? I mean that's a joke. I was going to make a post last week about the OSU/TCU over and I didn't, and was gonna post about Oklahoma -18 being a sucker bet and didn't, just because I don't like to jynx myself by posting to be honest. But I probably will post on that one. Anywho . . .
You missed the entire point of my post buddy. If Georgia covers, this game is going to go over. That's the point. Hence, there is no point in betting the point spread instead of the total. If Missouri scores 30 points in this game, Georgia can't cover without the over. I would pick Georgia if I had to. I just don't think from a game theory standpoint it makes sense. This is going to be an uptempo game. And you should be smart enough to know that teams play worse defense on the road vs at home. Yeah they weren't great last week. BUT . . . BUT . . . their fast tempo gives other teams more possessions. And at home is it possible they could hold to Georgia to 35-38ish in this game? I think it is. I think the odds are Georgia gets into the 40's as I already mentioned. But if Mizzou gets 31, now Georgia needs what 47+ to get there?
If you're betting on Georgia winning by putting in the high 40's or 50's you should be betting on the individual team total man. It pays the same way. Maybe it isn't as "cool" as betting on the spread. But this is about winning. You can't argue what I'm saying here from a pure logic standpoint. Even if Mizzou is bad on offense and they lose 45-20 that's like right on the total. We'll see.
The funny part is I don't see anyone on this forum on Oklahoma State. Same line. Texas Tech should give up 50. What we don't know is how much Tech will score. We have a given basically that State gets like 49+ and no one will take them. This is the same type of game except the home team is getting the points and everyone is all over Georgia. People on this forum just overplay every single favorite and don't consider the road factor at all. They see a spread and see only 14 and don't factor in that it's a 9-10 point swing home to road. Some people are dumb enough to take Georgia -14.5 on the road, but not -23 at home when it's actually the exact same line. But that isn't even the point I'm what I'm saying.
I do think Missouri is soft on defense. And I do question is Missouri has a strong enough crowd to rattle teams like Auburn does for example. I think Georgia likely covers. But it is a weaker bet than the total. 49-35 and you lose - unless you buy the half point which really you want to avoid doing when you have double digit spreads.
Posted:
#31
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Don't trust Lane at all ... Look at it now .. down 19 ... Spread is 14. CMON UCF need one more TD
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Don't trust Lane at all ... Look at it now .. down 19 ... Spread is 14. CMON UCF need one more TDAdd:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
UCF can drive the field and score in a minute IF they want to. Strange game of swings.
Posted:
#33
Quote Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:
Scal, you were the guy that liked Missouri to cover against Purdue, so I'm not sure why you're talking there. You've been wrong about a lot of stuff. I believe I probably called you out on a few bets a while ago that you didn't like or something. I do this to everyone though. And I do to save the casual bettor money because this forum is dominated by about 6-7 posters and the average guy who comes on here thinks of em like Jesus. The capping here overall has been bad - the best bets being missed every week. And yeah the "best bets" is subjective, but to me world class cappers would be picking up on stuff that some of you haven't. How about no one being on LSU this week? I mean that's a joke. I was going to make a post last week about the OSU/TCU over and I didn't, and was gonna post about Oklahoma -18 being a sucker bet and didn't, just because I don't like to jynx myself by posting to be honest. But I probably will post on that one. Anywho . . .
You missed the entire point of my post buddy. If Georgia covers, this game is going to go over. That's the point. Hence, there is no point in betting the point spread instead of the total. If Missouri scores 30 points in this game, Georgia can't cover without the over. I would pick Georgia if I had to. I just don't think from a game theory standpoint it makes sense. This is going to be an uptempo game. And you should be smart enough to know that teams play worse defense on the road vs at home. Yeah they weren't great last week. BUT . . . BUT . . . their fast tempo gives other teams more possessions. And at home is it possible they could hold to Georgia to 35-38ish in this game? I think it is. I think the odds are Georgia gets into the 40's as I already mentioned. But if Mizzou gets 31, now Georgia needs what 47+ to get there?
If you're betting on Georgia winning by putting in the high 40's or 50's you should be betting on the individual team total man. It pays the same way. Maybe it isn't as "cool" as betting on the spread. But this is about winning. You can't argue what I'm saying here from a pure logic standpoint. Even if Mizzou is bad on offense and they lose 45-20 that's like right on the total. We'll see.
The funny part is I don't see anyone on this forum on Oklahoma State. Same line. Texas Tech should give up 50. What we don't know is how much Tech will score. We have a given basically that State gets like 49+ and no one will take them. This is the same type of game except the home team is getting the points and everyone is all over Georgia. People on this forum just overplay every single favorite and don't consider the road factor at all. They see a spread and see only 14 and don't factor in that it's a 9-10 point swing home to road. Some people are dumb enough to take Georgia -14.5 on the road, but not -23 at home when it's actually the exact same line. But that isn't even the point I'm what I'm saying.
I do think Missouri is soft on defense. And I do question is Missouri has a strong enough crowd to rattle teams like Auburn does for example. I think Georgia likely covers. But it is a weaker bet than the total. 49-35 and you lose - unless you buy the half point which really you want to avoid doing when you have double digit spreads.
Scal MISSOURI -1 VS PURDUE from Preseason goy lines = he won
iISS
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
UCF can drive the field and score in a minute IF they want to. Strange game of swings. Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Don't trust Lane at all ... Look at it now .. down 19 ... Spread is 14. CMON UCF need one more TDAdd:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
This is grossssss
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
This is grossssss Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
UCF can drive the field and score in a minute IF they want to. Strange game of swings. Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Don't trust Lane at all ... Look at it now .. down 19 ... Spread is 14. CMON UCF need one more TDAdd:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
1st and G. Need one score. And UCF covers and hits the over.
Posted:
#36
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
1st and G. Need one score. And UCF covers and hits the over. Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
This is grossssss Quote Originally Posted by Jimkellybeer:
UCF can drive the field and score in a minute IF they want to. Strange game of swings. Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Don't trust Lane at all ... Look at it now .. down 19 ... Spread is 14. CMON UCF need one more TDAdd:UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
Kiffin not even calling Time-outs. What a joke and fix this is
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Add:
Add:
UCF TT Over 44.5 -120 240/200 Knights off of an unexpected bye week due to the hurricane. National TV spotlight for McKenzie Milton who will be looking to light it up for his Heisman campaign. FAU defense is allowing a 44% conversion rate on 3rd downs which ranks 108th out of 129 eligible. They gave up 63 to Oklahoma who rushed and passed for over 300 yards, which is exactly what UCF is averaging on offense so far this year. I think UCF puts up a video game number. Not interested in the total for the game as I don't entirely trust FAU needing to hit the 24-30 mark because Robison was nothing special in his first road game against a less than great defense and Devin Singletary has yet to go off on the ground....and of course, the Lane Kiffin factor of weird endings with the numbers.
$$$$$_
BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
Navy -6.5 $200 Navy has owned the series of late, including covering and SU wins at SMU in their 2 most recent trips there in 2011 and 2016. Malcolm Perry has settled in as the running QB nicely after a tough start to the season. More on this game later
Navy -6.5 $200 Navy has owned the series of late, including covering and SU wins at SMU in their 2 most recent trips there in 2011 and 2016. Malcolm Perry has settled in as the running QB nicely after a tough start to the season. More on this game later
Great Selection....you might want to double up. 2-3" of steady rain tomorrow. We already got 3-4" tonight. Now figure that Navy gets most (no all) of their yards on the ground and no way SMU will be able to follow their scheme on a wet artificial surface and SMU is pretty much an air attack, which will be very difficult tomorrow with blowing wind and rain.....100% chance at game time and predicted all day. Lot of flooding tonight in DFW and a few people already drowned in their cars. SMU fans will not show up for this game either.
BOL......loved it before the monsoon, but now I really, really love it.
Posted:
#39
Quote Originally Posted by In2it:
Great Selection....you might want to double up. 2-3" of steady rain tomorrow. We already got 3-4" tonight. Now figure that Navy gets most (no all) of their yards on the ground and no way SMU will be able to follow their scheme on a wet artificial surface and SMU is pretty much an air attack, which will be very difficult tomorrow with blowing wind and rain.....100% chance at game time and predicted all day. Lot of flooding tonight in DFW and a few people already drowned in their cars. SMU fans will not show up for this game either.
BOL......loved it before the monsoon, but now I really, really love it.
I love hearing this ....
Already on Navy as well
Thanks for sharing 
Brother
Brother BEST OF HEALTH, HAPPINESS,WEALTH, BLESSINGS and LUCK TO ALL !!
Posted:
#40
fluffybucker-
Why don't you start your own thread with your own picks? You bring up valid points but all you have done is go in other people's threads and say the same nonsense about how the cappers on this site are bad....blah....blah....blah.
If you are so good and know so much then why don't you post your picks? Not trying to be an azzhole, but you are coming off as a pompous schmuck going in threads and criticizing peoples plays-
This forum has some great guys and can be a great place to discuss games that may not be on "the radar" so to speak- I don't believe anybody here claims to be a pro- just a bunch of regular joes trying to make some extra cash-
Posted:
#41
Add:
Stanford -2 $200 I'm fading the untested Ducks here against the steady Cardinal who have yet to play their best game, but have beaten capable teams. I feel like next week would be the spot where Stanford drops a road game at ND, this conference game has their full attention. Oregon has turned it over 5 times against BG and SJSU including 4 Justin Herbert INT's. That is the kind of thing that makes me tentative about him. Even going back to last years poor bowl game performance, there is just something missing about him. Stanford with a 31-26 edge in TOP for the season. Both defenses good on 3rd downs, but that is where the stats are skewed as Stanford has done that against better competition. Stanford also only 1 TD allowed in 6 Red Zone trips against. Bryce Love still hasn't had his big game, but his threat plus the very good play of KJ Costello will be enough to get this done.
Posted:
#44
Looks like the regs here are ganging up on me. I'll respond to everyone -
Regarding my lengthy posts, you can't sum up why a pick is a good pick in 2-3 sentences most of the time. A good bet requires putting pieces together. I don't post often, but when I do they tend to be longer. So be it. You don't have to read it.
Doubleup - I don't care about the GOY lines. Scal made a post on Mizzou before the game. It lost. I don't care if he lost honestly. But he brought up something on Missouri so I said yeah well you lost last week with em. That's fair.
Blowout, first off, good pick on Auburn last week buddy. You should have realized that line was the equivalent to LSU being -1 at home in which case I doubt you'd ever take Auburn. But you missed that. I wouldn't have brought it up, but hey you wanna go after me that's fair play now. And tons of people tailed you and lost on that. But regardless, why do I post in other people's threads? Because this forum is dominated by 6-7 posters that get all the replies. People don't look in threads of new posters. I'm pretty sure I already mentioned this. When I see a POPULAR play across this forum that I know is bad, I will go into a thread and make a point. It isn't personal. And I do this when I know I'm mathematically right. You guys make fundamental betting errors every week. You guys LOVE laying the big chalk with the road favs which is a great way to lose in college football. It's okay to take a road fav here and there . . . Bama last week was a nice exception. But it's every week. Oklahoma last week . . . Georgia this week . . . it's a bad way to cap.
I don't care about getting love and support or boosting my image by posting my own thread. I really love the NFL card this week and expect to win easy, but I haven't posted because I don't feel like it. It won't get any attention till week 8 and that's if I just rape the books every week. Doesn't matter to me. Long as I get my own bets in and win that's what I want. I'm helping more by trying to get people off the popular reg bets that are bad. And I'm not saying all these bets are bad, but I see a couple mistakes every week and I point them out. I'm wrong here and there, but usually right. I don't even dispute posts much, but this year I've seen a lot of regs all on the same teams in some sketchy spots. So I have to comment.
Posted:
#45
Quote Originally Posted by BWS77:
YTD: 6-2-1 +$440
YTD: 6-2-1 +$440
Georgia -13.5 $300 Road tested Bulldogs head to Missouri who has yet to play anything resembling a good team. Tigers hung in for a half last season at Athens but were eventually grinded down by a balanced attack and near 2-1 TOP margin. I expect the same situation this year.
More to come.....
Was just able to start watching at half-time, but I am really surprised by how easy Missouri is able to move the ball and score on Georgia. I thought the bulldogs had a much better defense. The Georgia offense appears prolific, which is great!!!
Posted:
#47
Quote Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:
Looks like the regs here are ganging up on me. I'll respond to everyone -
Regarding my lengthy posts, you can't sum up why a pick is a good pick in 2-3 sentences most of the time. A good bet requires putting pieces together. I don't post often, but when I do they tend to be longer. So be it. You don't have to read it.
Doubleup - I don't care about the GOY lines. Scal made a post on Mizzou before the game. It lost. I don't care if he lost honestly. But he brought up something on Missouri so I said yeah well you lost last week with em. That's fair.
Blowout, first off, good pick on Auburn last week buddy. You should have realized that line was the equivalent to LSU being -1 at home in which case I doubt you'd ever take Auburn. But you missed that. I wouldn't have brought it up, but hey you wanna go after me that's fair play now. And tons of people tailed you and lost on that. But regardless, why do I post in other people's threads? Because this forum is dominated by 6-7 posters that get all the replies. People don't look in threads of new posters. I'm pretty sure I already mentioned this. When I see a POPULAR play across this forum that I know is bad, I will go into a thread and make a point. It isn't personal. And I do this when I know I'm mathematically right. You guys make fundamental betting errors every week. You guys LOVE laying the big chalk with the road favs which is a great way to lose in college football. It's okay to take a road fav here and there . . . Bama last week was a nice exception. But it's every week. Oklahoma last week . . . Georgia this week . . . it's a bad way to cap.
I don't care about getting love and support or boosting my image by posting my own thread. I really love the NFL card this week and expect to win easy, but I haven't posted because I don't feel like it. It won't get any attention till week 8 and that's if I just rape the books every week. Doesn't matter to me. Long as I get my own bets in and win that's what I want. I'm helping more by trying to get people off the popular reg bets that are bad. And I'm not saying all these bets are bad, but I see a couple mistakes every week and I point them out. I'm wrong here and there, but usually right. I don't even dispute posts much, but this year I've seen a lot of regs all on the same teams in some sketchy spots. So I have to comment.
start your own thread. post picks. and keep a record. end of story
Posted:
#48
My analysis couldn't get more spot on. I told ya, if Mizzou gets 30, Georgia needs 45 plus to cover. In that case, the over obviously hits. However, you could have a 42-30 game that doesn't cover for Georgia, but the over already hits. The over was initially 64. Got bet up to 69 today which is incredible movement. That's why theoretically if you're thinking about this correctly you should be playing the total - unless you really thought Missouri was getting less than 20. But at home with the tempo and amount of possessions they get, not sure why you'd think that.
To be fair though, Georgia hasn't played as well on offense as I thought. 17 points off defense and special teams. TDs coming on jump balls turned TDs off missed tackles.
Now you're sweating if Georgia can tack on a meaningless 3 to get the cover. It's just not easy to win by that much on the road vs a solid team man. 14.5 is so easy to get backdoored on. Georgia is very good, but they aren't Bama.
Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:
My analysis couldn't get more spot on. I told ya, if Mizzou gets 30, Georgia needs 45 plus to cover. In that case, the over obviously hits. However, you could have a 42-30 game that doesn't cover for Georgia, but the over already hits. The over was initially 64. Got bet up to 69 today which is incredible movement. That's why theoretically if you're thinking about this correctly you should be playing the total - unless you really thought Missouri was getting less than 20. But at home with the tempo and amount of possessions they get, not sure why you'd think that.
To be fair though, Georgia hasn't played as well on offense as I thought. 17 points off defense and special teams. TDs coming on jump balls turned TDs off missed tackles.
Now you're sweating if Georgia can tack on a meaningless 3 to get the cover. It's just not easy to win by that much on the road vs a solid team man. 14.5 is so easy to get backdoored on. Georgia is very good, but they aren't Bama.
Dude, seriously.... "START NEW TOPIC" anyone can do it.
I won with the opening line. Your over won. Move along
Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by fluffybucker69:
My analysis couldn't get more spot on. I told ya, if Mizzou gets 30, Georgia needs 45 plus to cover. In that case, the over obviously hits. However, you could have a 42-30 game that doesn't cover for Georgia, but the over already hits. The over was initially 64. Got bet up to 69 today which is incredible movement. That's why theoretically if you're thinking about this correctly you should be playing the total - unless you really thought Missouri was getting less than 20. But at home with the tempo and amount of possessions they get, not sure why you'd think that. To be fair though, Georgia hasn't played as well on offense as I thought. 17 points off defense and special teams. TDs coming on jump balls turned TDs off missed tackles. Now you're sweating if Georgia can tack on a meaningless 3 to get the cover. It's just not easy to win by that much on the road vs a solid team man. 14.5 is so easy to get backdoored on. Georgia is very good, but they aren't Bama.
My analysis couldn't get more spot on. I told ya, if Mizzou gets 30, Georgia needs 45 plus to cover. In that case, the over obviously hits. However, you could have a 42-30 game that doesn't cover for Georgia, but the over already hits. The over was initially 64. Got bet up to 69 today which is incredible movement. That's why theoretically if you're thinking about this correctly you should be playing the total - unless you really thought Missouri was getting less than 20. But at home with the tempo and amount of possessions they get, not sure why you'd think that. To be fair though, Georgia hasn't played as well on offense as I thought. 17 points off defense and special teams. TDs coming on jump balls turned TDs off missed tackles. Now you're sweating if Georgia can tack on a meaningless 3 to get the cover. It's just not easy to win by that much on the road vs a solid team man. 14.5 is so easy to get backdoored on. Georgia is very good, but they aren't Bama.
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