Pacers at Spurs tonight
Little bit of bad news for me for tonights game...I will be at a concert tonight and won't be able to watch the game as in depth as a normally do. That sucks because my 2h plays have been pretty good.
Couple things to start off with
1. As it turns out, we may have found out why the Pacers looked so sluggish at Utah. Paul George was sick, and Hibbert was battling an asthma attack during the game. Might explain the lack of flow on offense, and why there were so many missed shots.
2. Granger has started practicing...no timetable for his return.
3. Their plane landing in Utah was so rough, most of the guys were scared they were in a crash.
4. Pacers didn't fly into San Antonio. They had to land in Houston because of fog, then take a 3.5 hours bus ride. CJ Watson got locked in the bathroom cause the door broke on that bus.
OK, enough with the worthless tidbits. Tonights game...
I've looked long and hard at San Antonio's schedule and results, and here's what I can find. They have scored over 102 in 7 out of 8 games. However, those teams were the Hawks, Rockets, Magic, Pelicans, Cavs, Grizzlies, Celtics. Not exactly the best defensive lineup. The two best teams the Spurs have played this year are the Blazers and the Thunder...they lost to both of those teams on the road. Blazers on a back to back.
Spurs haven't played since Dec. 2, and have tons of rest. Their lineup should be ready to go, and after this game they don't play for 3 days, so I expect Popovich to use his best players as much as he can tonight. Pacers haven't played since Wednesday...their bodies and health should be healed close to 100%. So I think we are looking at these teams with their full rosters on display tonight.
I looked hard at Spurs trends for game totals, spreads, 1h, 2h, and this is what I concluded. As good as Duncan is and has been this season, his worse games this year are against talented front lines. Against Memphis (healthy Randolph and Gasol) he went 3-8 from the field. Against Ibaka and Perkins he went 5-14. Against Houston and Dwight Howard, he went 8-13...but in that game Asik only played 13 minutes, and Howard was their only inside presence. Spurs are going to be asking a lot from Tony Parker, Leonard, Ginobili, etc...and those guys can definitely produce, but when it comes down to it the Pacers are athletic enough to slow down the Spurs, and it seems like the Spurs have dominated some bad opponents.
Here's a little secret I bet nobody knows. Spurs allow 92.1 pts per game...best in the Western Conference. So really, this game is between two teams who know how to lock up teams, and play good smart defense.
First play is going to be 1h under 94. Pacers D should be at full strength, as will the Spurs. Pacers games for the most part this year see a lot of points in the 2h, so I'll take the total in the 1h. I can see both these teams coming out slow trying to figure each other out, running down the shot clock, etc.
When I started looking at the Spurs, I expected to see a team that the Pacers should really fear, but I gotta be honest...every time they've played a quality opponent they've struggled or lost. Yes you can say that about most teams, but the Pacers are getting 3.5 points. I'm going to take the Pacers +3.5, and I did not expect to find value in the Pacers in the matchup, but looking inside the numbers I've changed my mind. Pacers are obviously a threat to win any game they play this year, and I can't pass up this value.
GL today gents
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