One of the most interesting states in the midterms is also one of the least discussed crucial states. With Democrats looking to expand their battleground into Republican states, and crucial contests for Senate, Governor, and House, Iowa election odds are fascinating going into the fall
With two properly competitive House seats and another that could get spicy, and two marquee competitive statewide seats, Iowa election odds are going to be exciting throughout November.
The Senate landscape: Why Iowa stays competitive
With the Senate GOP having to play such a broad map of defense this year, Iowa is arguably the only place they’re holding up well. Ashley Hinson outperformed Donald Trump in her House seat by 5% in 2024 and has avoided the scandals that have beset other Senate Republican candidates. In a state that voted for Donald Trump by 13%, that should be enough to keep this race off the board.
It’s not, because this is a significantly blue year, and because Democrats have found a good candidate. Josh Turek also has a history of outperforming other Democrats, winning a state house seat Donald Trump won multiple times. Turek was also recently endorsed by Barack Obama, who remains the last Democrat to win Iowa statewide in a race for federal office.
Turek is down 4% in the latest Suffolk poll, another sign that his campaign doesn’t have the kind of support that many other Democrats have this year. Canadian pollster Abacus showed Turek up 9%, but that extremely favorable result only moved his chance of winning up 1%. The problem for Turek is that in a race for Federal office in a state this red, you need a trifecta of factors: a blue environment, a good candidate, and Republicans picking a bad nominee.
Right now, it doesn’t appear Republicans have done so, with Hinson doing what she was supposed to do. Being good enough is rarely a winning political strategy, but when you’re in a Trump+13 state, it is. It’s why Iowa Senate odds are so much different from every other swing state - Turek is good, and the environment is blue, but those are necessary conditions for a Democratic win, not sufficient ones.
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Governor’s Mansion: The strength of the Sand campaign
Here, Democrats are in much better shape, for a few reasons. First, Rob Sand is a proven electoral machine, having won statewide in both 2018 and 2022 despite Republicans winning the Governor’s Mansion both years. With Sand now running for Governor, Democrats have found one of the best candidate recruits anywhere in the country, not just Iowa.
Sand also got extraordinarily lucky in the GOP’s choice of opponent. Sand was supposed to go up against a sitting Republican congressman, but instead Zach Lahn won. Lahn, a businessman, doesn’t live in Iowa full-time, and reports say he is donating large sums of money to his kids’ private schools … outside of Iowa.
It’s not playing very well.
Sand is up 4% in that same Suffolk poll that has Turek down 4%, showing that a considerable number of Iowans who would otherwise vote Republican are willing to keep considering Sand. Sand won in 2022 because he convinced a number of Republicans he was worth a look, despite the partisan label. With him stepping up to a higher office, his scrutiny will rise, but he’s got a strategy to account for this.
Between saying he didn’t want Kamala Harris to campaign for him or run in 2028 and saying he’s voted for numerous Republicans in his life, Sand isn’t running as a Democrat. He’s running for office as something of a quasi-independent who is perfectly willing to appeal to Republicans by saying what he doesn’t like about the Democratic Party. And according to the Iowa Governor odds, it’s working.
Battle for the House: Breaking down the competitive districts
There are three competitive, or at least somewhat competitive, House seats in Iowa. The 1st is the likeliest to fall to Democrats, where the Republican incumbent has had repeated close calls despite the district’s Trumpian lean. Democrats are a substantial favorite in the district, making it a top priority for Democrats to flip.
The 2nd is Hinson’s old seat. It voted for Trump by 10 and Hinson by 15 in 2024, but Hinson is now running for Senate. A Trump+10 district without an incumbent in a blue year would be a target, but with Iowa Democrats prioritizing two other seats and Hinson being the Senate nominee, it’s a harder task. The likelihood is that even if Hinson loses, or comes close to doing so, her vote will likely hold up in her district better than in the rest of the state, and her coattails should be enough to hold the seat. At least, in the absence of Democrats prioritizing the 2nd, which they’ve yet to really do.
The 3rd is the most interesting district in the state. It’s the state’s least Trump-supporting district, but Zach Nunn has won two straight terms and is running for re-election. Nunn’s never been an excellent electoral performer, but he’s better equipped to win his seat than others in the state. That said, the 3rd was the only district to elect a Democrat in 2020, and the seat’s lighter red partisanship makes Democrats excited about their chances of flipping it.
