Wai'alae Country Club is the next stop for the PGA Tour. The short track in Honolulu will host the Sony Open once again after Kevin Na took it down in 2021.
Bryson DeChambeau has withdrawn but the field is still strong enough to find good Sony Open odds value with the likes of Webb Simpson, Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Smith teeing it up this week.
Sony Open picks
- Dahmen (-118) over Todd
- Davis (-102) over Kim
- Kisner (+130) over Gooch
- Jason Kokrak Top 20 (+210)
- Max McGreevy Top 20 (+600)
- Kevin Na Top American (+1,680)
Picks made on 01/11/2022 at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Wai'alae Country Club betting stats that matter
The layout is a Par 70 measuring just over 7,000 yards at Wai’alae. While longer hitters like Justin Thomas have won here, it’s really a shot-shapers course that can be attacked by the shorter hitters like Na too. So we’ll focus even more on approach numbers this week than we normally do, and we’ll also put a big emphasis on putting.
Tournament history shows that winners and top finishers all separated themselves from the field by rolling the rock on those Bermuda greens. Another important trend amongst winners at the Sony Open is that eight of the last 10 champions played the previous week at the Tournament of Champions.
- Strokes gained putting and Bermuda putting.
- Strokes gained approach.
- Proximity from mid-range (150-175, 175-200 yards)
- Par 5 scoring.
- Did they play the Sentry Tournament of Champions?
Sony Open matchup predictions
Joel Dahmen (-118) over Brendan Todd
Todd has been laying low since we last saw him miss the cut at the RSM Classic. Dahmen finished 29th that week then finished in the middle of the pack last week at the TOC. While Joel didn’t light up Kapalua from a strokes gained perspective, at least he played. Dahmen will be warmed up and looking to finish in the Top 10 after his 12th-place finish at Sony back in 2020 while Todd will be shaking off the rust. Plus, over the last two years, Dahmen ranks sixth in the field in strokes gained on short Par-70 setups and second in DraftKings points. Todd is 16th in strokes gained and 51st in DK points.
Cam Davis (-102) over Si Woo Kim
Si Woo Kim has been struggling with his irons since October and somehow finished 23rd last week at Sentry while losing 5.4 shots to the field on approach. He’s had some decent finishes at the Sony over the years, like fourth place back in 2016, but we’ll bet that Si Woo won’t fix his irons by Thursday. Cam Davis finished 10th at Sentry with some decent iron play and putting stats. Cam also has a decent course history on his side at Wai’alae. We’ll go against the Si Woo loving whales who reversed this one from the Cam Davis -118 opener.
Kevin Kisner (+130) over Talor Gooch
We’ll also go against the line movement here after FanDuel opened this one at Kisner -102. Gooch is a trendy name in golf right now but we don’t see the numbers to back up the juice over Kis. Kisner rates out much better in our two-year short Par-70 model. He is also coming off a Top-10 finish at Sentry where his putter and his approach game really heated up for a 66-65 weekend. Gooch came in with a pair of 67s, gained less than a stroke on approach for the week and lost almost 2.5 strokes with his putter.
Sony Open top finisher predictions
Jason Kokrak Top 20 (+210)
We’re banking on Kokrak to bounce back this week. +210 is value for a Top-5 player in the field who gets the benefit of having played last week. No, he did not play well but dare we say that’s a good thing? Kokrak has won three times over the last year and a half. All three wins followed finishes of 49th or worse in the previous start. The same can be said for many of his best non-win finishes. So, Kokrak knows how to "fix it" and we are betting he’ll do so again. Just don’t look at his stats from last week! Look instead at the Houston Open in November. Kokrak won there while gaining 6.4 shots on approach and 8.7 shots vs. the field putting. That was at Memorial Park, a Par-70 layout with Bermuda greens. Sound familiar?
Max McGreevy Top 20 (+600)
Max may be one to watch this season after Top-20 finishes at both the RSM and the Houston Open in the Fall. The Korn Ferry up-and-comer gained 2.6 and 3.2 shots on the field in approach at those events and another 3.5 shots putting on the Bermuda surfaces at Sea Island. So, while we don’t know how he stacks up against an elite field, we have proof of concept that he can compete on a ball striker's course. We also like his proximity stats in the limited action we have to go on. Call it a hunch at 6/1.
Sony Open prop prediction
Kevin Na Top American (+1,680)
We already saw Viktor Hovland defend a title this season in Mexico, so why can’t Kevin Na do it in Honolulu? Na is one of the greatest opportunists on tour when it comes to capitalizing on short courses and less-than-elite fields. Plus, last year he won after finishing dead last at TOC while losing 4.5 shots on approach and 3 on the greens. This year he improved to 13th at the Sentry on a good approach week. We’ll take more than half the payout with this prop vs. Na’s outright number and eliminate the rest of the world.
