Challenging golf courses often accompany strong fields – and this weekend's PGA Tour event at Torrey Pines is no exception.
One of the best fields of the year will descend upon the North and South Courses for the Farmers Insurance Open – and there's added incentive for players to make it to the weekend. The North Course will host the Thursday and Friday rounds, while the South Course – which also happens to be the site of this year's U.S. Open – will welcome golfers fortunate enough to make the cut. And with a host of golf's heavy hitters in attendance, that will be no easy task.
We preview the field, break down the course and give our Farmers Insurance Open picks and predictions.
Torrey Pines Betting Stats that Matter
Neither the North nor the South Course will offer much relief to any golfers not bringing their "A" game. The North Course measures over 7,200 yards with challenging fairways, somewhat punitive rough and Poa Annua greens that can be fickle at the best of times. The South Course comes in at over 7,700 yards, and will likely look (and play) like a major tournament course.
It sounds obvious, but players who hit it long and straight will have the best chance at success this week. SG: Off-the-Tee should be the single most important statistic to track, though SG: Approach is a close second. SG: Putting matters, too, but it might be tough for players to get hot on the greens if they aren't giving themselves shorter putts on a consistent basis.
Farmers Insurance Open Outright Winner Bets
Unlike previous tournaments this season, the Farmers Insurance Open isn't that wide-open from an outright odds perspective. Only four players find themselves below +2,000 to start the competition, led by Jon Rahm at +700 and Rory McIlroy at +800. Xander Schauffele has the third-best odds at +1,200, with Tony Finau rounding out the Top 4 at +1,800. Other notables include defending champion Mark Leishman at +3,500 and last week's winner, Si Woo Kim, at +4,000.
Who will win the Farmers Insurance Open? Here's our best guess:
Rory McIlroy (+800)
There's something reassuring about having someone in the field who has dominated Torrey Pines in back-to-back years. And while McIlroy came up short of victory in both 2019 and 2020, fifth- and third-place finishes are still commendable results. McIlroy has posted a sub-70 score in six of his eight rounds at the twin Torrey Pines courses, with a combined 144-hole score of 26-under. Expect McIlroy to be in contention throughout the tournament - he's by far the safest outright play on the docket.
Bubba Watson (+4,500)
It's hard to label the bombastic golfer as "under the radar" in any sense, but he will be here at Torrey Pines. Watson will play his first PGA Tour event since a 57th-place showing at the Masters – but if you remove his final round at Augusta and his fourth round at the U.S. Open, he has actually been one of the hottest golfers of the season. Watson also won this event in 2011 and placed sixth last year, so there's history. He's well-rested and should be motivated to earn his first tour victory since 2018.
Farmers Insurance Open Matchup Predictions
Marc Leishman Over Jason Day (-110)
We're not particularly excited about either player's chances this week. While Leishman did prevail at last year's event, he did so on the strength of an unbelievable (and non-repeatable) putting performance that saw him gain more than eight shots over his three measured rounds – well ahead of runner-up Rahm. That said, we still like Leishman straight-up against Day, who has struggled across the board and will be featuring a mixed bag of new clubs this week.
Hideki Matsuyama Over Viktor Hovland (-100)
Who needs putting when you're so good at everything else? Matsuyama has bucked conventional norms for a long time, and is doing the same in 2020-21 – ranking 47th in SG: Total despite placing outside the Top 200 in putting. He has two Top-12 finishes at Torrey Pines the past three years, including a third in 2019. Hovland has far less experience here, having played just two rounds (including a missed cut in 2019). We'll give Matsuyama the edge in this matchup based on course familiarity.
Farmers Insurance Open Prop Bets
Brandt Snedeker to Make Cut (-120)
When you have better-than-even odds to miss a PGA Tour cut, you're not well-regarded in oddsmakers' eyes. And Snedeker is full value for this listing, having missed each of his previous three cuts – each boasting weaker fields than this one. But Snedeker is the Torrey Pines whisperer, having recorded five Top-3 finishes here since 2010 (including a third-place finish last year). His recent form might worry you, but no one has tamed the North and South Courses over the past decade like Snedeker.
Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (-138)
For as good as Snedeker has been at this tournament, Rahm has been nearly as unstoppable. He has three Top-5s in four visits, including a tournament win in 2017 and a runner-up finish last year. His worst result: a 29th-place showing in 2018, when he stumbled to a 75-77 weekend for the second-worst 36-hole stretch of his career at that time. Don't count on that happening again: He's dialed in and has a game tailor-made for these challenging courses.
Farmers Insurance Open Betting Card
- Rory McIlroy Outright (+800)
- Bubba Watson Outright (+4,500)
- Marc Leishman Over Jason Day (-110)
- Hideki Matsuyama Over Viktor Hovland (-100)
- Brandt Snedeker to Make Cut (-120)
- Jon Rahm Top-10 Finish (-138)
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