South Korea and the USA will meet in the second Olympic baseball tournament semifinal with a spot in the gold medal game and a date with Japan on the line.
A late-inning collapse against Japan dropped South Korea into the second semifinal while the USA edged the Dominican Republic in the knockout stage. The States beat Korea in the group stage but is there baseball betting value in taking the underdog in this spot, or do you lay the chalk with the favorite?
Check out our Olympic baseball free picks and predictions for South Korea vs. USA and find out.
South Korea vs USA game info
• Location: Yokohama Baseball Stadium, Yokohama, Japan
• Date: Thursday, August 5, 2021
• Time: 6:00 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
USA vs South Korea betting tips
- South Korea (+160)
- Under 8.0 (-110)
Read on for complete analysis
USA vs South Korea match odds
South Korea: +160
USA: -210
Total: 8.0
Over 8.0: -110
Under 8.0: -110
USA vs South Korea betting preview
Starting Pitchers
Eui-lee Lee (South Korea): South Korea puts their gold medal hopes in the hands of KBO rookie Eui-lee Lee. The 19-year-old lefty is pitching to a 3.89 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP in 14 starts with the Kia Tigers this season.
Joe Ryan (USA): Ryan is a 25-year-old in the Minnesota Twins organization. The right-hander was having a solid season in AAA pitching to a 3.63 ERA and a 0.79 WHIP in 12 games (11 starts).
Key injuries
South Korea: No key injuries to report.
USA: No key injuries to report.
Weather
It could be a muggy night at Yokohama Baseball Stadium. Temperatures will feel like the low 90s with humidity with mostly clear skies and minimal wind.
USA vs South Korea predictions
Moneyline pick
A spot in the gold medal game is on the line and this matchup should be a hotly contested one. The USA bounced back from their lone loss in the tournament by taking out the Dominican Republic 3-1 in their knockout stage matchup.
This U.S. squad is a mish-mash of MLB castoffs and younger minor league talent, and they have gotten to this point thanks to a swing for the fences offense and strong pitching. The States lead the Olympic tournament in home runs and strikeout rate but are backed up by a pitching staff that has a tournament-best ERA of 2.48 while limiting opponents to a .213 batting average.
But, the only team that has a higher slugging percentage in this tournament than the USA is South Korea. Made up of KBO stars, Korea also leads in batting average, hitting .306 as a team. While a rare bullpen slip-up cost them against Japan, overall, Korea's pitchers lead in opponent batting average at .203.
The USA took the first meeting between these teams 4-2 powered by a couple of two-run homers, while Korea left some opportunities out there leaving six men on base.
Team USA has the edge in starting pitching here but it’s not huge. This should be another tight ball game in this tournament and it looks like the value is with the underdog.
PICK: South Korea (+160)
Over/Under pick
The total for this game is set at an even 8.0 and in a game where almost everything is on the line, this number seems a tad too high.
For starters, Lee allowed three runs on four hits in five innings in his only other start in this tournament but he also struck out nine batters. That bodes well against a States team that strikes out nearly 10 times per game, and if Lee can keep them in the ballpark, he should have more success in this matchup.
On the other side, Ryan limited a strong Israel lineup to just one run on five hits over six innings of work and faces a Korea team that has stranded more runners than anyone else in this Olympic tournament.
Additionally, their first meeting only saw six runs scored, and with arguably the two best pitching staffs going at it, you can expect a similar result in this one.
PICK: Under 8.0 (-110)
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