Senators vs Maple Leafs Picks and Predictions: Leafs Have Been Uninspiring So Far

It hasn’t been the start to the season that the Toronto Maple Leafs were hoping for. They hung on to beat the Canadiens and their backup goalie 2-1 on Wednesday and then got outplayed by an Ottawa Senators team without its best player and No. 1 goalie on Thursday. Tonight, the shorthanded Leafs will have a chance to avenge that loss as the Senators come to Scotiabank Arena.

Toronto, on the backend of a back-to-back, closed as -190 favorites on Thursday and now find themselves as -250 home favorites. The Leafs will likely be without Auston Matthews again while the Senators should have the services of Brady Tkachuk, which is a big boost for the underdog.  

Senators vs Maple Leafs odds

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Senators vs Maple Leafs picks

• Ottawa ML (+225)
• Under 6 (+105)

Picks made on 10/16/2021 at 10:39 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Senators vs Maple Leafs game info

• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Saturday, October 16, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBC, Rogers Sportsnet Ontario

Senators vs Maple Leafs betting preview

Injuries

Senators: Matt Murray G (Out), Austin Watson F (Out), Colin White F (Out).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews F (Doubtful), Petr Mrazek (Out), Ilya Mikheyev F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Senators vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record

Senators: 1-0, 3 goals scored.
Maple Leafs: 0-1, 2 goals scored. 

Betting trend to know

The Under is 4-0-1 in Senators’ last five in the second game of a home-and-home situation. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Maple Leafs.

Senators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions

Ottawa ML (+225)

It hasn’t been the start to the season that Toronto was hoping for. The Leafs are 1-1 SU to begin the year but it’s been their play that probably has coach Sheldon Keefe looking to make some adjustments early in the season. 

Toronto has given up the first goal of the game in both of its matches and has come out flat in back-to-back games. If it weren’t for Jack Campbell in the opener vs. Montreal, this team could easily be 0-2 SU. Advanced metrics aside, the Leafs have just four goals through two games and faced Jake Allen and Anton Forsberg who are back-up goalies.

Without Auston Matthews, this team looks to be lacking finish outside of William Nylander. They have positive Corsi, scoring chance and xG percentages but have just one goal at even strength. Let’s not forget, this was a team fighting for the playoffs the last time it was in the Atlantic Division just two seasons ago. The price on the Leafs is getting out of hand as they closed -190 versus the Canadiens at home on Wednesday. The difference between Montreal and Ottawa is not 60 points.

Ottawa played the Leafs well last season despite finishing with the second-worst record in the North Division. The Sens have split the last 10 games versus their provincial rival and have wins at +152, +159, +222, +259 and +168. 

The Senators had the benefit of playing a traveling team on the second night of a back-to-back Thursday but still finished with nearly five expected goals for. Of course, Anton Forsberg playing his best game ever had a lot to do with it, but until the Leafs show that they can come out early and play with a lead, we aren’t trusting them at this ridiculous price. 

Ottawa will likely have Brady Tkachuk back in the lineup, and all he did last year was lead his team in points, hits and PIM. The addition of Tkachuk also puts the constantly dangerous Tim Stutzle back down to the second line which gives the Sens more scoring depth.

Goalie Jack Campbell looked great in the opener but with a team that has had a knack for costly turnovers and a group of new lines that have yet to show any chemistry, getting an undervalued Senators team at +225 is a no-brainer. Is there really much home-ice advantage for Toronto in one of the league’s quietest barns? Ottawa at +1.5 (-110) is also a well-priced play.

Under 6.5 (+105)

The Leafs and Sens played to a 3-2 Ottawa win on Thursday, which featured a closing total of 6.5 (-120 to the Under). Both teams had plenty of chances to score as the game finished at 9.69 expected goals. Forsberg was incredible in net for Ottawa and maybe played the best game of his career. We can’t expect many performances like that from a constantly-traded goalie with a career GAA of 3.20, but when goalies see the puck, well, they can be streaky. 

Campbell will likely start in net after Petr Mrazek injured his groin Thursday. Campbell is one of the most underrated goalies in hockey. He kept the Leafs in it versus the Canadiens on Wednesday and was the difference in a 2-1 victory, finishing with 1.55 goals saved above expected. 

The Leafs have managed just one even-strength goal through 120 minutes, which doesn’t feed us much confidence on this Over. Toronto will likely want to come out and eliminate chances early, which has been a problem to start the season. A calm and mistake-free opening 10 minutes is likely a goal for this Toronto coaching staff.

The Leafs saw a total of 6 leaning to the Over in their 2-1 win vs. Montreal, a 6.5 total leaning to the Under in their 3-2 loss to Ottawa and are now facing a 6 that's leaning to the Over and has hit 6.5 in some places. This number seems unwarranted considering Campbell is in net and the offense hasn’t shown us much. Three of Ottawa’s goals on Thursday were on bad turnovers which aren’t often repeated occurrences.   

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