Rangers vs Sabres Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Kreider Collects His Fair Share of Shots

The New York Rangers are coming off a game they had likely circled on their calendar last night in a 2-1 loss to the Devils. Now the Metropolitan Division’s third-place team has to turn around quickly and face a waiting Buffalo Sabres club that's also desperate and giving rookie goalie Devon Levi his first NHL start.

The Rangers could find themselves trailing early thanks to a tough schedule spot and a motivated opponent. That could lead to a negative game script, which should give some value to their NHL player props as they potentially play from behind.

Find out my best bets in our NHL picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Sabres on Friday, March 31.

Rangers vs Sabres best odds

Rangers vs Sabres picks and predictions

Don’t be surprised if the Rangers are playing from behind at some point in this game. They’re coming off a huge loss to the Devils, and now have a quick turnaround vs. a team that's clinging to its playoff life. The Sabres will also want to put in a good effort as the Sabres will be starting highly-touted rookie goalie Devon Levi in his NHL debut today. 

A negative game script would be great news for Chris Kreider and his Over 2.5 shots on goal. The power forward is playing with Patrick Kane at 5-on-5 and on the first power play unit. He leads his team in shots this month, and averages over 3.00 on the season. He faces a Sabres side who are allowing the seventh-most shots on net at all strengths this month. Making things worse, 60% of all shot attempts the Sabres are allowing are getting on net, which is one of the highest rates in hockey.

Kreider’s minutes are slightly down since the deadline, but with the Rangers hopefully chasing points and wanting to make the rookie goalie uncomfortable, Kreider could see a bump in minutes and an increase in shot mentality. If he can see 18 minutes of ice time or more, this Over 2.5 SOG at -120 (implied 2.5 shots) projects well above a coin-flip.   

Kreider has a 10% shot share on the season, and Betano has the Rangers’ shot total at above 32.5 juiced to the Over. If New York can get 30-plus shots, Kreider also has a better than 50% probability of hitting this. 

My best bet: Kreider Over 2.5 shots on goal (-118 at Pinnacle)

Rangers vs Sabres moneyline analysis

The Rangers are playing the back end of a back-to-back tonight in Buffalo after a 2-1 loss to the Devils last night. That was a massive game in New Jersey that had very big playoff implications, and with the loss, the Rangers trail the Devils for home ice by four points. This is a prime spot for the Sabres to take advantage of the schedule, but this is not a Buffalo team at 100 percent.

Tage Thompson is a game-time decision and missed the Sabres’ last tilt, a 4-3 loss to Montreal. With Buffalo seven points out of the last playoff spot in the East with eight games to go, it’s tough to see if the organization wants to rush him back with the team having a 1.7% chance of making the postseason, per MoneyPuck. 

Buffalo could also be without forward Jordan Greenway (questionable), and defenseman Mattius Samuelsson (questionable), who plays over 20 minutes a game.

Additionally, with the injury to Craig Anderson, the home side will start NCAA standout Levi, who is considered the goalie of the future in Buffalo. He posted a 1.54 GAA last season at Northeastern University and a 2.24 GAA this season. Over those two years, he’s totaled an insane .942 save percentage. 

There is a lot to unpack here with the Sabres and if Thompson suits up (something we might not know until game time), this line could certainly move 10 points toward the Sabres.

I’m off this side, but think Buffalo can play a spirited game in front of its rookie goalie, which could mean the New York offense could see some negative game script and play from behind. 

I wouldn’t hate Buffalo to score first at even money or better, as it will likely be Jaroslav Halak in net for the visitors tonight.

The market hasn’t made a move on either side, as the Sabres have stayed put as a +125 home dog since the opening. New York closed as a -160 road favorite in the last meeting back on March 11 in a 2-1 Rangers win in OT.    

Rangers vs Sabres Over/Under analysis

Unlike the side, the total has seen significant market movement since the opening. Currently, the Over 6.5 is -130 at the time of writing — 20 points shorter than the -110 opening price.

Buffalo has been such an easy team to bet the Over with. They’re seeing an average of 6.97 total goals per game this month, and have the third-worst GAA at 4.36. They rank 27th expected goals allowed per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at even strength in March thanks to the fifth-most high-danger chances against per game. Their 87.33 SV% at 5-on-5 this month is only better than two other teams. 

Now add in a rookie goalie making his NHL debut with massive expectations, and projecting this total gets even more complicated. Levi will be surrounded by a team that might not give him much help defensively, while possibly missing a key defender in Samuelsson. 

The one thing going for the Under here is the play of the Rangers. Yes, they are coming off a tough game, but despite all the scoring talent, this is still a team that ranks 27th in expected goals for per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 this month. The Over hasn’t been profitable in Halak starts either, as the backup is 5-5 O/U in his last 10 starts dating back to Jan. 1. 

Buffalo has seen at least seven total goals in eight of its last 10 games, but with the Thompson injury, Halak not playing terribly, the Rangers’ inability to create scoring opportunities at 5-on-5, and the uncertainties of Levi’s response to playing in his first NHL game, I’m leaving this total alone. I wouldn’t be surprised if there was an immediate buyback on the Under if this hits 7, though.

Rangers vs Sabres betting trend to know

The favorite is 45-17 SU in the last 62 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs Sabres.

Rangers vs Sabres game info

Rangers vs Sabres key injuries

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