Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 Picks and Predictions: Igor Slams the Door

The New York Rangers blew a 2-0 lead in Game 3 with a chance to go up 3-0 in the series as the two-time defending champions kept the drive for three alive as the Tampa Bay Lightning escaped with a 3-2 win. The Bolts can now even up the series tonight at home as -180 favorites.

Can the Rangers wrangle back momentum or did New York blow its best chance to push John Cooper’s team to the brink? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Lightning.

Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Tampa is gaining some early confidence in the market as they quickly moved to -180 home favorites after opening at -170. Tampa closed as -184 in Game 3.

Each game of this third-round series has seen a closing and opening total of 5.5 and tonight’s is starting to tick down to the Under.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 predictions

• Prediction: Rangers ML (+160)
• Prediction: Under 5.5 (-125)
• Best bet: Rangers ML (+160)

Predictions made on 6/07/2022 at 7:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 info

• Location: Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL
• Date: Tuesday, June 7, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Rangers vs Lightning series odds (NYR leads 2-1)

Rangers: -140
Lightning: +120

Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 betting preview

Key injuries

Rangers: Barclay Goodrow F (Probable), Ryan Strome F (Probable).
Lightning: Brayden Point F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Rangers vs Lightning head-to-head record in the series 

Rangers: 2-1 SU, 11 goals for.
Lightning: 1-2 SU, seven goals for. 

Betting trend to know

The Underdog is 5-1 SU in the last six meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Rangers vs. Lightning.

Rangers vs Lightning Game 4 picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

The New York Rangers let a golden opportunity get away from them on Sunday as they blew a 2-0 lead and lost 3-2 in the final minute of the third period. The Rangers came into Game 3 with a 2-0 series lead and had they held onto that multi-goal lead, they would've almost guaranteed a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals as the probability of Tampa coming back from a three-game deficit in the series would be low.

Now the experienced Gerard Gallant will have to settle his team down and wrestle back momentum. There are, however, plenty of things still in the favor of tonight's visiting underdogs.

Through 180 minutes of the series, the Rangers have only trailed for a total of four minutes while leading for a total of 86-plus minutes. Despite Tampa eking out a win in Game 3, New York has dominated this series from a goals-scored standpoint.

The loss of Brayden Point has really hurt John Cooper’s offense at even strength. Point missed his seventh straight game on Sunday and since the second-line center hit the infirmary, the Bolts have managed just 10 even-strength goals in seven games and have been heavily reliant on the power play.

The Tampa PP is 7-for-23 without Point and is 3-for-8 in the series. It's the only reason the Bolts got back into Game 3 and it also bailed them out in Tampa's opening-round series with the Maple Leafs.

Tampa certainly brought its A-game on Sunday, throwing 52 shots at Igor Shesterkin, but beating the locked-in New York goalie has posed an issue for the Bolts at even strength. 

Shesterkin has a 1.27 GAA and a .967 SV% at five-a-side in this series. He’s seen over 130 shots through three games and has been the difference in the series. He’s outplayed fellow countryman Andrei Vasilevskiy, who owns a 3.72 GAA and a .882 SV% through the three clashes. Vasilevskiy was incredible vs. the Panthers, but thanks to a poor opening round versus the Leafs, the reigning Conn Smythe winner still has a 2.54 GAA and is being outplayed by Shesterkin.

With an @NHL playoff-high 13 inner slot saves yesterday, Igor Shesterkin extended his lead in that category to...50! #NHLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/BTHgkx5GiK

— Sportlogiq (@Sportlogiq) June 6, 2022

New York also has the depth advantage. Without Point, the Bolts are weak down the middle and don’t have a solid third line like the one they’ve leaned on in previous playoffs. Tampa’s fourth line isn’t getting much ice time either. 

This is in comparison to the Rangers, who have developed their Kid line (Lafreniere-Chytil-Kakko) that’s seeing a ton of minutes, have elite scoring on lines one and two, and can bang away with their fourth line that has been more effective than Tampa’s checking line. 

With a great coach who should have them prepared in Gallant, impressive offensive depth, the playoff’s No. 1 power play (31.4%), and the series’ better goalie, the Rangers have a great chance to take the victory in Tampa tonight. Shesterkin is in the zone and can certainly steal this game, especially if the Rangers cut down on penalties and keep the Tampa PP off the ice. 

Tampa has been more average than good so far in these playoffs and we’re jumping on the plus money tonight. New York could win this series in five games. 

Prediction: Rangers moneyline (+160 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Heading into Game 1, everyone was on the Under 5.5 and it was a valid sentiment. Tampa had just come off a series where the Under went a perfect 4-0 and Vasilevskiy was seeing everything. New York was also coming off a seven-game series that saw plenty of low-scoring outcomes. Now, after three games in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Over is 2-1 and Game 3’s 3-2 final could have easily hit the Over 5.5.

Even with this scoring uptick, we’re not seeing any adjustment in the total by the books and we can understand why. 

Looking at the goals in the series, we’re seeing a ton of power-play tallies as there have been six extra-strength markers scored and both teams are a combined 6-for-19 (32%). Tampa and New York know they can’t take dumb penalties tonight and if either team can stay out of the box, offenses could be very limited.

Tampa has managed just four even-strength goals through three games and that’s on the heels of scoring six 5-on-5 goals in the four-game sweep of the Panthers. This Lightning offense has not been a huge threat at even strength and losing Point is compounding those problems.

Shesterkin has been a stud so far in the ECF. He has 2.34 GAA and a .943 SV% in the series and has been lights-out at even strength with a 1.27 GAA. Vasilevskiy hasn’t been great, but his 28-save performance on Sunday, where he didn’t allow a single goal at 5-on-5, was impressive. If he can ride that momentum into tonight, maybe he can keep the Rangers off the board early and keep this game tight.

Game 4s are always pivotal and Cooper and Tampa know how not to lose a game better than anyone. Tampa will sit back and wait for the Rangers to make mistakes. They will also want to play a clean game as the Rangers are heating up on the power play. These things all add up to a timid style of hockey that favors the Under.

If both teams can keep this game played mostly at 5-on-5, we’re expecting a tight, low-scoring game and the books are thinking the same as the Under 5.5 has ticked down to -130 at most books after opening at -120

Prediction: Under 5.5 (-125 at Coolbet) 

Best bet

Getting a team that has trailed for just four minutes over three games in a series at +160 is a hell of a deal. Tampa Bay has been the apple of the bookmakers’ eyes all season and so far in the playoffs, the fifth-seeded Bolts are 9-5 SU with a slight positive goal differential of plus-0.27 goals per game. That might not seem bad, but this is also a team that just swept the Florida Panthers in the second round, so that goal differential is not impressive.

Vasilevskiy has been anything but elite and has been outplayed by Shesterkin. The 5-on-5 play of the Lightning has been anything but special and they have a 0-goal differential through 14 playoff games (28 goals for vs. 28 goals against) at even strength. 

Once again, missing Point hurts this team offensively, defensively, and on special teams. The Rangers have the playoffs' No. 1 power play at 31.4% and are coming off a 2-for-5 performance in Tampa on Sunday.

The Rangers are deeper offensively with the Kid line riding high and hitching our wagon to Shesterkin at +160 seems like another no-brainer. Tampa is a tough task at home and the Rangers have been playing better hockey at MSG, but Game 3 showed us the Rangers can play with the lead at Amalie Arena and we’re betting Gallant can settle this New York team down after the Tampa comeback. The Rangers have won five of the last six meetings.

Pick: Rangers moneyline (+160 at bet365)

Stats from Covers, Moneypuck, Natural Stat Trick, and NHL.com.

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