Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Can Sorokin Save Isles?

Prop bet #1: Anton Lundell Over 1.5 shots on goal

Florida Panthers center Anton Lundell projects to climb into a top-six role with center Sam Bennett (upper body) out for the foreseeable future. He's positioned to see more minutes alongside wingers Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe.

The trio played together for 6:28 at 5-on-5 in Game 2 and registered 13 attempts, six shots, and an 81.3 Corsi For percentage. It’s a small sample, but Lundell also finished the regular season with 2+ shots in 15 of his final 22 games for 53 total.

Additionally, Lundell has a single shot despite registering six attempts through the first two games of this series. These Anton Lundell odds haven’t fully accounted for his uptick in shot volume to close out the regular season or his promotion up the depth chart.

Anton Lundell prop: Over 1.5 sots (-145 at BET99)

Prop bet #2: Andrei Svechnikov Over 0.5 points

The Carolina Hurricanes continue to load up their top line with Sebastian Aho, Jake Guentzel, and Andrei Svechnikov, with the trio storming the New York Islanders with 6.91 goals and 7.18 expected goals per 60 minutes overall and an 88.9 Corsi For percentage at 5-on-5.

While those are unsustainable marks over the long run, they also showcase New York’s inability to match up against the Aho-Guentzel-Svechnikov line.

I’m targeting these Andrei Svechnikov odds because Aho is priced at -190 to mark the scoresheet, while Guentzel is carrying a 1.5-point total. The only meaningful difference is that Svechnikov doesn’t skate with Aho and Guentzel on the No. 1 power-play unit. 

Finally, New York turning to Ilya Sorokin to start in goal on home ice in Game 3 could help the Isles, but head coach Patrick Roy didn’t make any other notable lineup changes in Wednesday’s practice, which is surprising considering Carolina has put on a possession clinic throughout the first two games of the series.

Andrei Svechnikov prop: Over 0.5 points (-125 at BET99)

Prop bet #3: Ilya Sorokin Over 29.5 saves

Returning to the possession clinic the Hurricanes have put on in Round 1, I’m expecting Islanders goalie Ilya Sorokin to see plenty of rubber in Game 3.

The Hurricanes averaged a second-ranked 32.5 shots per road game with a league-high 58.0 Corsi For percentage while at 5-on-5 during the regular season, and Carolina has matched the 32.5 shots per game with a 67.9 CF% at 5-on-5 to start the postseason.

There’s room for Carolina to up the shots in Game 3, too. The Hurricanes turned 47.0% of their attempts into shots during the regular season and they’ve converted just 35.3% through the first two games of this series. An emphasis from the Isles to block shots is a partial explanation, but the pendulum has still swung too far and I’m expecting Carolina to close the gap and approach 35 shots on Thursday.

I’m targeting these Ilya Sorokin odds because he’s posted an elite .923 SV% through 13 career postseason appearances and has the game-breaking talent to steal a game.

Ilya Sorokin prop: Over 29.5 saves (-115 at BET99)