Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Dahlin In a Dilemma

Prop bet #1: Cats nip Dahlin

The Florida Panthers have allowed two goals or fewer in 13 straight games, and No. 1 goalie Sergei Bobrovsky is in near-perfect form with a league-best .947 SV%, 1.61 GAA and 1.28 goals saved above average per 60 minutes during a 7-1 heater. Florida also checks out No. 1 in my defense ratings.

Additionally, Florida ranks second in goals against (1.84), expected goals against (2.27) and Corsi For percentage (56.3%) at 5-on-5, so I expect the Buffalo Sabres to have a tough time finding the back of the net tonight. Their No. 1 defenseman Rasmus Dahlin is also in a bit of a scoring funk and only marked the scoresheet in two of the past six games. 

I also value these Rasmus Dahlin odds because there has been line movement to the Under in this game, and both teams have trended to the Under recently. Finally, there is also a notable gap in the offensive zone time the Panthers spend (45%) compared to the Sabres (41.1%), which also aligns with Florida’s dominant CF% at 5-on-5.

Rasmus Dahlin prop: Under 0.5 points (+140 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Motor City blues for Carlson

This is a sneaky tough schedule spot for the Washington Capitals. They’re playing a back-to-back spot, their third game in four nights, and they’ve also traveled for all three contests. The Detroit Red Wings have also tightened up defensively with just seven goals allowed during their five-game winning streak, and they’re fully healthy while Washington remains without multiple regulars.

The underlying metrics for the Red Wings expose some question marks, but they’ve still allowed the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.62) and sport the third-best penalty-kill percentage (88%) since the start of January, so they’re also doing a lot right defensively.

As a result, I’m looking at Caps top defenseman John Calrson to have his two-game point streak snapped. He’s been a favorite player of mine to fade this season because he’s in a statistical decline, and he’s missed the scoresheet in 31 of 57 games (54.4%). The 34-year-old veteran has seen his points per 60 minutes dip to 1.34 this year after posting a 2.14 mark the prior three, too.

Simply put, these John Carlson odds align with the top offensive defensemen in the league, and he no longer hangs with the who’s who of blueline scorers. The noted 1.34 points per 60 ranks 46th among regular blueliners.

John Carlson prop: Under 0.5 points (+130 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: No Aho no good for Jarvis

Carolina Hurricanes winger Seth Jarvis has primarily flanked centers Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal this season, and his role and scoring are directly impacted by his assignment in the lineup tonight, which appears to be with Staal.

Staal matches up against the opposition’s best players in a defensive role as much as possible, and he and Jarvis have combined for a modest 2.57 goals and 2.64 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. On the flip side, Aho is Carolina’s top scorer, and he and Jarvis have clicked for 3.67 and 2.9 marks.

It’s a notable drop off, and the Hurricanes hit the road to face the rolling Minnesota Wild on Tuesday. Minny is 7-1-1 out of the All-Star break, and a lot of the success can be attributed to head coach John Hynes loading up his No. 1 line with Joel Eriksson Ek, Matt Boldy, and Kirill Kaprizov. The trio have gone off for 10 goals at 5-on-5 while driving possession with a 58.5 Corsi For percentage.

Carolina doesn’t have the benefit of the last change on the road, but I expect head coach Rod Brind’Amour to still do everything possible to match up Staal against Eriksson Ek as often as possible. And, simply put, it’s a daunting assignment.

Finally, these Seth Jarvis odds aren’t fully pricing in his drop in production when skating with Staal compared to Aho.

Seth Jarvis prop: Under 0.5 points (-105 at Bet99)