The Maple Leafs offense has been struggling to score goals, but I expect a burst of offense with the Pittsburgh Penguins in town to wrap up the pre-holiday schedule.
Find out more with my free Penguins vs. Maple Leafs predictions and NHL picks for this December 23 matchup.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs prediction
Penguins vs Maple Leafs best bet: Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5 (+115)
The post-Marc Savard era in Toronto begins tonight, and I think his firing could spark the Leafs’ offense when they host the struggling Pittsburgh Penguins at Scotiabank Arena.
Both clubs are heading in the wrong direction with the holiday break on the horizon.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have lost three straight, being outscored 14-4 in that stretch, while the Pittsburgh Penguins have lost eight of their last nine games, allowing 3.73 goals per game in December.
That’s where my focus will be tonight for my best bet as I take the Over on Toronto’s team total, which is posted at 3.5 goals and paying a good price (+115).
Toronto’s offense has hit the ditch lately, but this is mainly a fade play on the Penguins, as Pittsburgh has allowed four or more goals in six of its last seven games with a .840 team SV% in that stretch.
However, if there is one team that the Leafs should be confident playing against, it’s the Penguins. They’re 2-0 against them already this season, outscoring them 11-5 in those games, going Over the team total in both contests.
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Penguins vs Maple Leafs same-game parlay
Auston Matthews has eight points in his last four games against Pittsburgh, including at least one goal in each of the last three meetings.
I’ll stick with the theme of an offensive outburst today, and also take William Nylander to go Over 2.5 shots. He’s averaging 3.3 shots per game over his last 10 contests vs Pittsburgh, who is allowing 28+ shots per game on average.
Nylander also had six shots combined in the two previous games against the Pens this season.
Penguins vs Maple Leafs SGP
- Maple Leafs team total Over 3.5
- Auston Matthews anytime goal
- William Nylander Over 2.5 shots on goal
Penguins vs Maple Leafs odds
- Moneyline: Penguins +108 | Maple Leafs -130
- Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 | Maple Leafs -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 6 | Under 6
Penguins vs Maple Leafs trend
The Maple Leafs are 8-2 in the last 10 games between the two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Maple Leafs.
How to watch Penguins vs Maple Leafs
| Location | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date | Tuesday, December 23, 2025 |
| Puck drop | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Penguins vs Maple Leafs latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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