Penguins vs Avalanche Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Streaking Avs Can't Be Curtailed

Despite dealing with injuries, Colorado is currently enjoying a six-game win streak. Find out why the Avs will continue to find the back of the net on Wednesday night by reading our Penguins vs. Avalanche betting picks.

Josh Inglis - Betting Analyst at
Josh Inglis • Betting Analyst
Mar 22, 2023 • 14:49 ET • 4 min read

Two teams heading in different directions will meet in Denver tonight as the Pittsburgh Penguins visit the Colorado Avalanche, who are winners of six straight and can tie for the division lead with two points tonight.

Colorado is dealing with more injuries to Cale Makar (questionable) and Evan Rodrigues (concussion), but if there’s one team that can overcome that, it’s the defending champs. 

With Pittsburgh’s recent losing ways thanks to some awful play in the net, should bettors be looking at the goal market tonight in Colorado for some plus-money winners?

Find out my free NHL picks and predictions for Penguins vs. Avalanche on March 22.

Penguins vs Avalanche best odds

Penguins vs Avalanche picks and predictions

Things could potentially get ugly for the Pittsburgh Penguins tonight at Ball Arena. Tristan Jarry has a GAA over 4.00 over the last 30 days (11 starts) and ranks dead last in goals saved above average (GSAA) over that stretch.

Jarry's getting beat at even strength and also on the penalty kill where the Pens sit at just 26th in the league since January 1. That’s great news for a Colorado Avalanche offense that is scoring over 4.00 goals per game this month and converts at a 30% clip on the power play.

The potential loss of Cale Makar hurts, but that means Nathan MacKinnon will have a more active role in driving the offense. MacKinnon leads the NHL in shots on goal since January 1 and is riding a nine-point streak, with goals in 14 of his last 19 games. Bettors can get him at +110 for a goal at bet365, while some other books have him as short as -140.

365 doesn’t include overtime for goals, but even if we price that in, it’s still the best price on the board in a game with shootout potential. 

Denis Malgin to score at +450 (FanDuel) is also worth a look as he is playing on the top line with MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen.

My best betNathan MacKinnon anytime goal (+110)

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Penguins vs Avalanche moneyline analysis

The Avalanche have moved from -170 to -160 on the moneyline, and that could be because Cale Makar is trending towards missing a second straight game. Despite the movement, I still think the Avs are the right side here.

The Pens have played some awful hockey of late, dropping four straight and having just one win in regulation over their last 10 games (versus the Flyers of all teams). The offense is generating a ton of chances offensively, but poor goaltending and special teams have ballooned their team GAA to 3.70 this month. 

Pittsburgh owns a negative 0.80 goal differential per game in those 10 affairs, despite outshooting its opponents by an average of eight shots per contest. With the way the Avs are playing, that’s a bad matchup tonight for a Pents team that will be playing their ninth game in 16 days.

Meanwhile, Colorado is coming off a 5-0 shutout over the Blackhawks on Monday. Despite a similar schedule without much rest, the Avs have been at home since Saturday night and have been racking up points lately.

The Avs have ripped off six straight wins and are just two points out of the division lead. They’re dealing with injuries again, but the next-man-up approach has been something they’ve gotten pretty accustomed to this season. 

Even with Makar's status for tonight in doubt, this Colorado team can beat anyone as long as Rantanen and MacKinnon are humming. The duo has combined for 15 goals and 32 points over the Avs’ last 11 games. 

Alex Georgiev also has the edge in net, as he is 5-0 straight up with a 1.57 GAA in his last five starts. Jarry comes in having lost three straight starts, posing a 4.05 GAA over his last 11 games in March. 

I like the Avs here and would consider a win in regulation at -110 or better. A team total of Over 3.5 at -115 might also be worth a look as well. 

Penguins vs Avalanche Over/Under analysis

This total opened at 6.5 and has seen a little action to the Under, which is a little surprising given how well Colorado has been playing offensively.

The Avs' power play is going to get some good looks tonight as Pittsburgh is killing off penalties at just a 75% rate since January 1. 

Pittsburgh is also dealing with some injuries on the blue line, which could hurt them both at 5-on-5 and on special teams. Jeff Petry is day-to-day and has missed two straight games, while Jan Rutta is week-to-week and Marcus Pettersson is likely to miss the remainder of the season. Those are three of the team’s top ice-time blue-liners on the season, with all three of them having significant penalty-killing roles.

That spells trouble facing a Colorado power play that has scored in eight straight games on the man advantage. Even without Makar, this is a dangerous unit that is playing with confidence. 

I also think the Pens can generate enough offense to score two or possibly three tonight. For starters, this offense is averaging 37.1 shots per game this month, which trails only the Panthers.

Pittsburgh ranks seventh in expected goal% this month and has been snakebitten by a terrible shooting percentage of 7.8%. The Pens have also created the second-most high-danger chances since March 1 but just haven't been able to capitalize.

That is due to change eventually, so I like the Over and think a 5-2 or even 6-3 game is very much in play.

Penguins vs Avalanche betting trend to know

The Over is 7-1 in the Penguins’ last eight games after allowing two goals or fewer in their previous contest. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs Avalanche.

Penguins vs Avalanche game info

Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
Date: Wednesday, March 22, 2023
Puck drop: 8:00 p.m. ET

Penguins vs Avalanche key injuries

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