Maple Leafs vs Senators Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Fade the Inconsistent Buds

Ottawa has suffered an untimely losing streak, but it still holds the edge at home tonight when the Sens face their Ontario rivals who have been struggling both offensively and in the net. Read more in our Maple Leafs vs. Senators betting picks.

Last Updated: Mar 18, 2023 11:58 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Toronto Maple Leafs have a quick turnaround facing the Ottawa Senators tonight after their 5-2 win last night over the Hurricanes.

The Buds will start former Senator Matt Murray in net tonight and sit as -140 road favorites vs. the waiting Senators, who have dropped four straight but took the last meeting 6-2 in Toronto as a +175 road dog. 

Find out where the betting edge lies for this one in our free NHL picks and predictions for Maple Leafs vs. Senators on March 18.

Maple Leafs vs Senators best odds

Maple Leafs vs Senators picks and predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs will turn to Matt Murray in net tonight. The netminder has allowed four goals in three straight games and has seemingly avoided his former team — the Ottawa Senators. He was scheduled to play them back in January, but didn’t make it through the warm-ups and left teammate Ilya Samsonov in a tough spot. 

The Sens will certainly get up for this game and the market is starting to shorten up on them. This is a team that has dropped four straight and sits eight points out of a playoff spot. Quite frankly, this game could dictate the rest of their season.

Toronto hasn’t been a very consistent team of late and is somehow just 4-4 in its last eight games despite losing the metric battle in xGoal%, Corsi%, and high-danger chances in the majority of those contests.

The Sens were +175 dogs at Toronto in the last meeting, so the +120 price for tonight seems long. Home ice here can be worth 40 points and the back-to-back for Toronto can be priced at 25 points. That puts this line closer to Ottawa +110 in a modest projection.

The market has already moved this line 10 points as Ottawa opened at +130. Brady Tkachuk (two goals and four shots in the last meeting) should help move this Ottawa offense vs. a Toronto team that will be playing with six defensemen for the first time in five games.

Considering the Sens are a team with more motivation and the current inconsistencies surrounding the Toronto offense and goaltending, I’m backing the Sens tonight on the moneyline.

My best betSenators moneyline (+120 at SIA)

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Maple Leafs vs Senators moneyline analysis

The Leafs have been a tough team to analyze over the past nine days. 

Just take last night for example, as Toronto was a slight -120 home favorite vs. the Hurricanes but won 5-2 in a game in a game where the Leafs finished with just 2.21 expected goals. 

It was also the sixth game in eight contests where they lost the xGoal% and over that stretch, they have a negative 44 high-danger chance differential. Analytically, Toronto hasn't played good hockey but has seemingly lucked into a .500 record over those eight games. 

Murray will get the nod in net for the Buds tonight and has allowed exactly four goals in three straight games. To make matter worse, he now faces a Top-10 home offense in Ottawa. 

Considering the Sens were +175 road dogs in the last meeting and home ice is worth roughly 20 to 25 points, the Sens should be +125 home dogs without the back-to-back being priced in. If that +175 tag was correct, tonight should be around +105 for the Sens on the moneyline (assuming a 50-point swing for a change of venue).

With the inconsistencies of the Leafs on offense and in the net, taking the Sens in regulation at +160 is also in play. The market is even starting to move to the Sens after Toronto initially opened at -150. 

Maple Leafs vs Senators Over/Under analysis

Last night’s 5-2 Over with a total of 6 was more “lucky” than anything, as the Leafs did not create many offensive chances and Pytor Kotchetkov finished with -2.79 goals saved above expected on just 24 shots, per Money Puck.

However, bettors looking to hit the Over quickly should know this last meeting had a closing total of 6, so there are some inconsistencies in the pricing of this total.

The play in net for Toronto is a giant question mark and one that is likely to keep me off the total. Murray has struggled of late while also avoiding playing his former team, but when he is locked in, he is arguably the best goalie on this roster.

Add in an Ottawa club that is riding a four-game skid and will be playing desperate hockey with its playoff hopes dwindling, and this could be another tough battle of Ontario which could easily favor the Under. 

The Over has seen some early money, but it’s a pass for me.

Maple Leafs vs Senators betting trend to know

The home team is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs Senators.

Maple Leafs vs Senators game info

Location: Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa, ON
Date: Saturday, March 18, 2023
Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET

Maple Leafs vs Senators key injuries


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