Maple Leafs vs Coyotes Picks and Predictions: Matthews Shines, Yotes Prevail

For a second straight game, the Toronto Maple Leafs blew a multi-goal, third-period lead. This time, however, they picked up two points last night in Vegas. Sheldon Keefe and the boys won’t have too much time to think about it as they head to Arizona to take on the Coyotes tonight.

Can the Leafs get over their recent third-period struggles and snag two points in an obvious letdown spot? Can the Coyotes manage some offense versus Toronto’s backup goalie? Find out in our free picks, predictions and NHL odds for Maple Leafs vs Coyotes.

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Leafs have held pretty steady as -300 ML favorites as Petr Mrazek was announced in net yesterday. We doubt there is much movement on this line. The total opened at 6 and unlike the side, we’d expect this to head north.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes predictions

• Prediction: Coyotes +1.5 (+100)
• Prediction: Over 6 (-110)
• Best bet: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+100)

Predictions made on 1/12/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes game info

• Location: Gila River Arena, Glendale, AZ
• Date: Wednesday, January 12, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT, TSN4

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes betting preview

Injuries

Maple Leafs: Mitch Marner F (Out), Pierre Engvall F (Out).
Coyotes: Scott Wedgewood G (Out), Jakob Chychrun D (Out), Carter Hutton G (Out), Ryan Dzingel F (Out).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes head-to-head record (since 2017)

Maple Leafs: 3-3 SU, 16 goals for.
Coyotes: 3-3 SU, 17 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 9-2-1 in the Maple Leafs’ last 12 overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Coyotes.

Maple Leafs vs Coyotes picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline/Puck line analysis

The Leafs were outplayed for a second straight game but have somehow managed to pick up three out of a possible four points from their trips to Colorado and Vegas. The Leafs led 3-1 entering the third on Tuesday against the Golden Knights and allowed two goals, including the game-tying tally on a 5-on-3 penalty kill. 

The Leafs came out flying but faded down the stretch again, getting outshot 12-2 in the final frame. Now they'll take on a bad Coyotes team without a head coach (COVID). But with Jack Campbell on the bench and Petr Mrazek in net, is backing the Leafs a great idea in this spot?

Even on the second half of a road back-to-back, the Leafs enter Wednesday’s game as -300 favorites on the moneyline and -120 on the puck line. This is a tough price to swallow with a team that has looked bad defensively while playing with the lead in back-to-back games. Mrazek has made only three starts this season and finished two of those games. He last played vs. Chicago before Christmas and allowed four goals to one of the lowest-scoring teams in hockey. 

There is a case to be made that Jack Campbell is the most important player on the Leafs, and his contributions may be most evident when he's not between the pipes. Mrazek needs to get some solid starts under his belt before he can be trusted because, with the way the defensive pairing of Jake Muzin and Justin Holl has been playing, he might not get a ton of help in front of the crease. 

The Leafs rank second in defensive-zone giveaways and although the Coyotes offense averages just 2.18 goals per game, they've managed 16 goals in their four games since Christmas. This is a letdown spot for the Leafs in the middle of their longest road trip of the season and we're leaning toward the home team on the +1.5 puck line at even money here. Don’t get us wrong, the Buds could come in and lay down a 6-1 beating, but with their recent play and Mrazek in net, we’re lacking confidence in a big win Wednesday night. Toronto will also be without Mitch Marner for a third straight game and the Leafs are 4-4 SU without the winger and just one of those wins was by more than one goal. 

Karel Vejmelka will likely draw the start for the home side. He’s thrown up four duds in his last five starts, but the Coyotes haven’t played terribly in front of him lately with a pair of two-goal losses versus Nashville and Winnipeg (one with an empty-netter) and a win over the Hawks on home ice. The Arizona power play has four goals over its last four games and comes into this game rested having not played since Saturday. 

Fool us once, shame on you. Fool us twice, shame on us. We’re leaning the Coyotes on the +1.5 puck line.

Prediction: Coyotes +1.5 (+100)

Over/Under analysis

The Leafs have been printing Overs of late and the most impressive thing is they've done it with a goalie sitting in the Top 5 in goals saved above expected/60. Campbell won’t be in net Wednesday night, so Mrazek will try to hold things down. 

The Leafs backup has missed most of the year and looked bad in limited action, posting a 4.13 GAA in his three starts. In those starts, the total goals scored were nine, nine, and five. Toronto failed to cover the puck line in all three of Mrazek’s games. If the Leafs can give up nine goals in two games with Campbell in net, we like the prospects of the Coyotes scoring at least three times on Wednesday.

Offensively, the Leafs have done plenty with limited chances versus the Avs and Knights, scoring nine goals on just 45 shots. This is the No. 1 power play in hockey. Toronto also sits third in the league in expected goals at 5-on-5 and will face an Arizona team that ranks 28th on the penalty kill and 27th in even-strength goals against. With Arizona head coach Andre Tourigny in COVID protocol, this game could be loose. 

Additionally, Auston Matthews will head his home state riding an absolute heater. The American centerman leads the NHL in goals over the last two months and has 16 tallies in his last 14 games. 

The Leafs have been juggling some lines of late and with the second line of Kerfoot-Tavares-Nylander back together, the Leafs have elite scoring on their top two lines. 

With Toronto's ongoing defensive problems and Mrazek’s uncertainties, we like some two-way scoring tonight and are hitting the Over 6. The Leafs are 7-2-1 to the Over in their last 10 while the Yotes are 4-1 O/U in their last 5.

Prediction: Over 6 (-110)

Best bet

We love looking through secondary and derivative markets in games like this. We like the Coyotes team total Over 2.5 for plus money, Toronto first period team total Over 1.5 (+200), and Leafs' power-play points. However, our favorite play is an Auston Matthews anytime goal at +100 (PointsBet).

Matthews was born in California but grew up in Scottsdale, Arizona. The Leafs’ leading scorer doesn’t get many chances to play in Arizona but has produced two goals in his last three trips to the state. Matthews is three goals off the league lead and has played in three fewer games than Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl. The Toronto sniper has failed to record a goal just three times in his last 14 games. He’s so hot right now. 

Pick: Auston Matthews anytime goal (+100)

Pages related to this topic