Lightning vs Panthers Game 2 Picks and Predictions: Healthy Bolts Are a Problem

Lightning star forward Nikita Kucherov missed the entire regular season but returned for Game 1 of this series and buried two goals — both coming on the powerplay.

Chris Toman - Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Chris Toman • Publishing Editor
May 18, 2021 • 16:30 ET
Nikita Kucherov Tampa Bay Lightning NHL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

[Editor's Note: This article was written prior to the news that Panthers goalie Chris Driedger will get the start for Game 2.]

The battle of the Sunshine State resumes Tuesday night, as the Florida Panthers host the Tampa Bay Lightning for Game 2 of the Central Division first-round playoff series.

Tampa Bay was powered in Game 1 by the return of superstar Nikita Kucherov, who scored two goals and added an assist in the Lightning's thrilling 5-4 victory. The defending Stanley Cup champs will once again be road favorites for the encore.

Here are our best free NHL betting picks and predictions for Lightning vs. Panthers on May 18. 

Lightning vs Panthers game info

Location: BB&T Center, Sunrise, FL
Date: Tuesday, May 18, 2021
Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
TV: CNBC, SN East

Lightning vs Panthers odds

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NHL Sharp Money and Line Movement Report

By Patrick Everson

Tampa Bay landed on the William Hill US odds board as -130 chalk Sunday night, but as of 4:30 p.m. ET today, Game 2 of this series is a -110 pick 'em. Florida is landing 59 percent of moneyline bets and 58 percent of moneyline dollars. The total hasn't budged off 6 flat (-110), with 68 percent of bets/52 percent of money on the Over.

Check out the full line movement for this game

Lightning vs Panthers series odds

Lightning: -340
Panthers: +270

Lightning at Panthers betting preview

Injuries

Lightning: Barclay Goodrow F (Out).
Panthers: Aaron Ekblad D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Betting trend to know

Tampa Bay is 5-1 in its last six playoff games as a favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs. Panthers.

Moneyline pick

A number of storylines emerged out of Game 1 that have major implications for anyone betting on this series.

For starters, Kucherov showed that not even a full season off could slow him down. The 2019 MVP hadn't played a second all year before logging 19-plus minutes — the most among Tampa forwards — and putting five shots on net in his three-point effort in Game 1. Any worry about him being rusty is officially out the door. The Lightning just got exponentially better at even strength and on the powerplay, where Kucherov buried both of his goals. 

On the other side, the Panthers will be without forward Sam Bennett after he was suspended for boarding Blake Coleman in Game 1. Bennett didn't do much with the Calgary Flames but has excelled since the Panthers acquired him at the trade deadline, scoring 15 points in 10 regular-season games, plus he added two helpers in Sunday's contest.

Star center Aleksander Barkov and defenseman Markus Nutivaara were the only Panthers who saw more ice time than Bennett in the series-opening loss. He might not be the biggest name on these teams, but losing those minutes and production for even one game in a short series is a critical blow.

Going back to Tampa and the elephant in the dressing room is the play of star goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy, who had another rough game against the Panthers. Although the Lightning escaped with the win, Vasilevskiy has allowed four-plus goals to the Panthers in four consecutive games. His last two regular-season games came against the Panthers and he surrendered four goals in one loss and five in the other, and in his previous contest versus Florida before that he allowed another five. 

Vasilevskiy's Florida problems are very real. But he's also who many would consider the best goalie in the NHL and it's hard to imagine him continuing to surrender four or five goals every time he meets his cross-state rival. And before jumping on the Panthers as home underdogs, also consider that their own netminder, Sergei Bobrovsky, is shaky in his own right, struggled versus the Lightning throughout the year, only played two games in May (he allowed four goals in one of them), and before that had an April that was his worst month of the season. 

Getting the Lightning as a slim -130 favorite is worth the juice.

PREDICTION: Tampa Bay (-130)

Over/Under pick

Six of the nine games these teams played this season have gone past the Over/Under total of 6 that has been set for Game 2. 

Only three teams in the NHL scored more goals per game than the Panthers this season, and that holds true since April 1 as well. And while they did a good job of keeping the puck out of the net, there are major concerns for them heading into Game 2.

Bobrovsky entered this series with a 3.23 goals-against average and .879 save percentage against Tampa in the regular season before giving up five in the first game of this series. While he improved from his disastrous season last year, the reality is that Bobrovsky is far removed from his Vezina days and isn't guaranteed to make it through this series as the Panthers' No. 1 goalie. 

Though the Lightning struggled to score down the stretch — they ranked 20th in goals per game since April 1 and weren't a huge threat on the powerplay, ranking 23rd in PP% over that same stretch — they also have snipers Kucherov and Steven Stamkos back now. That literally changes everything and renders those stats meaningless, as those two go from out of the lineup to assuming first-line powerplay duties, adding threats to a team that already ranked first in converting high-danger chances into goals. 

The Lightning converted on three of four PP opportunities in Game 1 in their first contest of the season with the star duo back together on the man advantage. Watch out. 

While Bobrovsky's counterpart's job is safe, Vasilevskiy can't solve the Panthers. Of the seven teams he faced this year, his performance versus Florida was his worst against any opponent. The perennial Vezina finalist had a 3.36 GAA and .898 SV% against the Panthers, were both considerably worse marks than his overall body of work for the season (2.21, .925, respectively).

For as much as we expect Vasilevskiy to help get the Lightning a W, his struggles against Florida can't be overlooked. And that certainly contributes to why we're leaning with the Over again for Game 2.

PREDICTION: Over 6 (-105)

Lightning vs Panthers betting card

  • Tampa Bay (-130)
  • Over 6 (-105)

Picks made on 5/17/2021 at 8:47 p.m. ET

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Chris Toman Publishing Editor at Covers.com
Publishing Editor

Chris Toman started with Covers as a publishing editor in January 2021 and provides betting coverage on MLB, the NBA, and NHL. Prior to joining Covers, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, and also worked at theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com.

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