Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: O'Reilly Leaves His Mark in Swries Opener

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning meet in the first round of the NHL playoffs for the second straight year, and although the Leafs haven’t won a series since 2004, there's plenty to like about the -160 favorites.

The biggest acquisition at the trade deadline, Ryan O’Reilly, will look to continue his impressive playoff resume and the Leafs are giving him plenty of opportunities tonight vs. a weak Tampa Bay defense.

I break it all down in my best NHL betting picks for Lightning vs. Maple Leafs below. 

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 odds

Lightning vs Maple Leafs series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of April 18

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 predictions

Ryan O’Reilly was brought to the Toronto Maple Leafs to lift this team to their first playoff series win in nearly 20 years and the center has a great opportunity tonight to contribute on the scoresheet.

The former Conn Smythe winner is playing with John Tavares and William Nylander on the second line as well as the first power-play unit which could get plenty of work with how these two clubs have played each other in the past.

#Leafs lines during practice Apr. 17/23

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Tavares-O'Reilly-Nylander
Kerfoot-Acciari-Jarnkrok
AstonReese-Kampf-Lafferty
Extra: Knies, Simmonds, Timmins

McCabe-Brodie
Giordano-Holl
Rielly-Schenn
Gustafsson-Liljegren

Samsonov
Woll@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR

— David Alter (@dalter) April 17, 2023

In the series opener last season, the Leafs had six power-play opportunities in a game with more than 100 penalty minutes. With how many infractions were called yesterday between the four games, Toronto could be seeing its fair share of 5-on-4 hockey tonight. The Leafs finished with the No. 2 power play this season. 

The Tampa Bay Lightning are also not as good and physical on defense this postseason as they were a year ago. The losses of Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta will be felt as in their places are two rookies making their playoff debuts in Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh. Ondrej Palat is also gone while Tanner Jeannot is unavailable. It’s a much easier lineup for O’Reilly & Co. this time around.

With his linemates at -175 or shorter to record a point, O’Reilly at -120 is the best price of the Toronto forwards. The Leafs could have 4+ power-play opportunities and should be able to find some matchups to exploit with the last change vs. a weak Tampa blue line. 

My best bet: Ryan O’Reilly Over 0.5 points (-120 at SIA)

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 moneyline analysis

The Leafs are a deserved favorite in this spot and in the series. This is the best lineup they’ve featured in recent years as their depth at both forward and defense is valuable in this matchup.

This is also a Tampa Bay team that isn’t as deep as it was in last season’s seven-game series. Gone are solid defensemen Ryan McDonagh and Jan Rutta as well as playoff specialist Ondrej Palat.

Victor Hedman is a year older and the blue line will feature two rookies making their postseason debuts in Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh. Ian Cole and Erik Cernak make up the third pairing and forward Tanner Jeannot — who the team paid a king’s ransom for at the deadline — is out. There's a lot to like about Toronto tonight.

The first game of the series last year saw over 100 minutes of penalties as the Bolts tried to set the tone physically and were willing to give up power-play opportunities if it meant imposing their rougher play on a weaker Toronto team. It didn’t work as Toronto went 1-for-6 on the PP and won 5-0. 

I like another solid start from the better team tonight as Sheldon Keefe also did a magnificent job managing the workloads of all his skaters down the stretch and Toronto comes into tonight very healthy.

The top two lines will be very hard for Tampa to match up against without the last change and Ilya Samsonov was one of the best home goaltenders in hockey this season with a 19-3-3 record and a 1.98 GAA with a .927 SV% at Scotiabank Arena.

He didn’t face Tampa at all this year in the regular season while Andrei Vasilevskiy was a .500 goalie on the road this year (14-14 SU) and went 1-2 SU vs. Toronto with a 3.06 GAA.

I don’t think I’m ready to trust the Leafs to take a commanding lead in this series, but with the additional rest, home ice, a deeper team, and likely getting some power-play opportunities, I’m happy to take the Leafs in regulation tonight at plus money and wouldn’t say no to the -1.5 at +170 or better.   

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 Over/Under analysis

The Under went 3-1 last night on the opening day of the playoffs with 47% of all the goals scored coming on the power play. There were 30 power-play opportunities across the four games and if there were a time where we could see plenty of penalties, it would be in Game 1 with referees also setting a tone for the series.

These two teams also don’t like each other and including the last regular-season meetings of 2022 and 2023 and Game 1 last year, we’ve seen over 300 minutes in penalties between the two clubs. That’s likely good news for Over backers as the Leafs and Bolts have been successful all year on the power play and finished the season with two of the Top-3 power plays in hockey.

Add in the uncertainty of Samsonov in the playoffs, and Vasilevskiy, who has been a much better goalie on home ice, I like goals tonight and we’re getting a playoff discount as this total closed at 6.5 in the last meeting a week ago.

The Over went 5-2 in the seven-game series last year with the two Unders coming in Toronto’s 5-0 win in Game 1 and a 2-1 Tampa Bay series-winning Game 7.

With Toronto’s loaded top-six coupled with the inexperience on the visiting blue line, if Vazilevskiy isn’t at his best, Toronto could find themselves with another five-goal effort in the series opener. 

Lightning vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know

The Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NHL betting trends for Lightning vs Maple Leafs.

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 game info

Lightning vs Maple Leafs Game 1 injuries

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