Golden Knights vs Islanders Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Islanders Play to the Under Again

The Islanders have been racking up Unders of late, and with a strong keeper in net against a Golden Knights squad that's lost lots of offensive punch, our NHL picks don't see that changing.

Last Updated: Jan 28, 2023 11:39 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Metropolitan Division’s New York Islanders host the Pacific Division’s Vegas Golden Knights on Saturday evening. Vegas is in desperate need of a win after dropping each of its last three games and six of their last seven while New York searches for a win on back-to-back nights.

Will the Islanders take care of business on home ice, or can the Golden Knights enter the All-Star break on a high-note? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Golden Knights vs Islanders on Saturday, January 28.

Golden Knights vs Islanders best odds

Golden Knights vs Islanders picks and predictions

The Islanders have played many low-scoring contests recently, with six or fewer total goals scored in 13 of their last 17 games. This is likely to continue with goaltender Semyon Varlamov slated to take the crease for the Islanders.

Through 15 appearances in nets this season, Varlamov is 8-6-1 with a .912 save percentage (SV%) and 2.80 goals against average (GAA). Based on his metrics, regression should not be an issue.

If he qualified, Varlamov would rank eighth among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5. This strong goaltending should continue against the Vegas Golden Knights, a club he typically dominates. 

Over his last six starts against Vegas, Varlamov is 4-2 with a .959 SV% and 1.51 GAA. There were five or fewer total goals scored in five of those six outings. 

However, Varlamov may not get much goal support as the Islanders rank in the bottom half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5. Across the ice, rookie netminder Logan Thompson is slated to start between the pipes for the Golden Knights. 

Currently in the Calder Trophy conversation, Thompson is 19-13-2 with a .912 SV% and 2.71 GAA through 34 appearances in the crease this season. However, Vegas’ elite defensive play under new head coach Bruce Cassidy has played a large part in those tremendous numbers.

At 5-on-5, the Knights rank fifth in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). However, Vegas’ offense has gone stale as the stars have gone quiet offensively, which is part of the reason why there have been six or fewer total goals scored seven of its last nine games.

My best bet: Under 6.5 (-143 at BarStool)

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Golden Knights vs Islanders moneyline analysis

I would lean towards the Golden Knights moneyline considering that New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5. However, there are two reasons why I am staying away.

First of all, Varlamov has utterly dominated Vegas over the last few seasons. With the strong backup netminder starting on home ice, he likely will find success against the Knights once again.

Secondly, Vegas’ stars up front have struggled recently, which in turn means that the entire offense is lacking production. Over their last six contests, the Knights are averaging just two goals scored per game.

Golden Knights vs Islanders Over/Under analysis

The main concern in taking the Under in this contest is New York’s blue line. At 5-on-5, the Islanders rank just 24th in the league in xGA/60.

With that said, Varlamov is no stranger to bailing out poor play in front of him, and this contest should go no differently. The Knights’ offense is struggling mightily as of late, and going on the road on the second half of a road back-to-back against a strong netminder is probably not the place where they figure things out.

Golden Knights vs Islanders betting trend to know

There have been six or fewer total goals scored in 13 of the Islanders’ last 17 games. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs Islanders.

Golden Knights vs Islanders game info

Location: UBS Arena, New York City, NY
Date: Saturday, January 28, 2023
Puck drop: 7:30 p.m. ET

Golden Knights vs Islanders key injuries

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