First place in the West Division will be up for grabs on Friday night, as the Vegas Golden Knights and St. Louis Blues kick off a back-to-back set at Enterprise Center.
The Knights will look to end a six-game road trip on a positive note after dropping two straight games to the Minnesota Wild mid-week, while the Blues have dropped two straight themselves.
Oddsmakers have the home team as an even-money underdog with the total opening at 5.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Vegas Golden Knights vs. St. Louis Blues for Friday, March 12 (8:00 p.m. ET).
(Editor's Note: This preview was published prior to Friday afternoon's news that Marc-Andre Fleury will be inactive due to health & safety protocols.)
Vegas Golden Knights at St. Louis Blues betting preview
Injuries
Golden Knights: Marc-Andre Fleury (Out), Alex Pietrangelo D (Out).
Blues: Jaden Schwartz F (Out), Robert Thomas F (Out), Ivan Barbashev F (Out), Tyler Bozak F (Out), Colton Parayko D (Out), Oskar Sundqvist F (Questionable).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Knights are 5-1 SU in their last six games as the favorite. Find more NHL betting trends for Golden Knights vs. Blues.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonVegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was ruled out tonight due to COVID protocols, then ruled back in after the test he took was shown to be a false positive. It's not certain that he'll play, but he is available. With all that's occurred, it's no surprise that this moneyline has bounced around at TwinSpires, from Golden Knights -115 to Blues -121, and now to a -110 pick 'em. Ticket count is 2/1 on the Knights, but money is 3/1 on the Blues. The total opened at 5.5 (Over -120) and is up to 6 (Under -120), with tickets and money running 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Moneyline pick
Even with each team playing only the seven teams within their divisions, the Knights and Blues have played each other just once this year halfway through the season — a 5-4 OT St. Louis win.
The Blues are coming off a six-game California road trip that saw them pick up 10 of a possible 12 points. Despite the heavy injuries that they've sustained, the Blues are in great form as they push to take over the lead in the West Division. St. Louis will play two games (both against Vegas) at home and then head out for another six-game road trip. We’re sure the players will be happy to be home briefly, but it’s easy to argue that there are plenty more distractions at home than on the road.
St. Louis is thin down the middle with four centers likely missing Thursday’s game. The team had no troubles on its most recent road trip versus the likes of San Jose, Los Angeles and Anaheim — three of the division’s bottom-four teams — but the first-place Knights are coming off two games versus an elite opponent (Minnesota) and have not lost three games in a row since last season.
The Blues have been leaning on their power-play over the last 30 days, with a near 30 percent success rate, but scoring against the league’s best penalty-kill since February 11 won’t be easy. Vegas has killed 20 of its 22 penalties over the last 10 games.
Both clubs are scoring on their high-quality chances at about the same rate, but it’s stopping those shots that separates them. Vegas has an 88.07 save percentage against scoring chances this year, which ranks as a Top-3 mark. The Blues, on the other hand, are stopping just 82 percent, which ranks in the bottom three. Vegas is 25 spots better at stopping high-danger shots, as well.
With St. Louis’ schedule, its injuries and facing a team that doesn’t lose three in a row often, we’re taking the visitors on Friday night. Getting the Knights at -120 is a great price, considering they have closed at -120 or higher just five times this year.
PREDICTION: Vegas ML (-120)
Over/Under pick
For two clubs that pride themselves on defense, there are a few factors that could lead us to expect more goals than usual Friday night.
For starters, the Blues have four centers either questionable or out, which is a big blow to the team’s defensive game. On the year, St. Louis is allowing just over two even-strength goals per match but lately, with injuries piling up, that number has shot up to over three. St. Louis is a much easier team to score against at 5-on-5 with fillers down the middle.
Secondly, after Marc-Andre Fleury gave up four goals (three in the third period) and got pulled Wednesday, it’s uncertain who will draw the start in net for Vegas. Fleury has been one of the best goalies in the league this season, but he has also been playing more than most. He has started 13 of the club’s last 14 games and at 36-years old, that’s a lot of hockey in just 32 days. Vegas’ options are slim with undrafted Logan Thompson currently riding as the No. 2.
Additionally, the loss of defenseman Alex Pietrangelo is quite significant for the Knights. The veteran blueliner leads the team in ice time per game.
The Blues are 14-12 O/U on the year and 3-1 O/U as an underdog. Friday’s projected starter, Jordan Binnington, is not in great form, coming off a stretch of six starts where his goals against average is north of 3.00.
With Vladamir Tarasenko healthy and the Knights getting Mark Stone back, both teams will have their best offensive threats in the line-up.
PREDICTION: Over 5.5 (-115)
Golden Knights vs Blues betting card
- Vegas ML (-120)
- Over 5.5 (-115)
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