The Pittsburgh Penguins will look to avenge a 4-3 Thursday night loss to the Philadelphia Flyers as the two teams will meet for the fifth time this season for a Saturday matinee. The Penguins blew an early 3-0 first period lead two days ago and lost in regulation, pushing the season series to 3-1 in favor of the Flyers.
Oddsmakers have the home side as a slight -105 underdog with the total opening at a flat 6. Here are our free picks and predictions for Philadelphia Flyers vs. Pittsburgh Penguins for Saturday, March 6 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins betting preview
Injuries
Flyers: Joel Farabee F (Out).
Penguins: Jason Zucker F (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 18-7-4 in the last 29 meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Flyers vs. Penguins.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPointsBet USA pegged this game a -110 pick 'em on the moneyline opener Friday afternoon, moved the Flyers to -115 for about four hours Friday night, then went back to pick 'em. About 30 minutes before faceoff, the line is at Penguins -115, with Pittsburgh taking 53 percent of tickets, while Philadelphia is getting 63 percent of money. The total opened at 6 (Under -115), and the price is now -110 on the Over/Under, with 68 percent of tickets/77 percent of cash on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this game
Moneyline pick
It only took four minutes for the Penguins to jump out to an early 3-0 lead on Thursday, but it didn't hold up. Claude Giroux (2G, A) and the Flyers fought back, tying the game with less than seven minutes to go and getting the go-ahead goal in the final 130 seconds. The Pittsburgh collapse gives the Flyers a ton of confidence heading into Saturday afternoon. On the year, Philly has taken three of the four matchups with all three wins coming in regulation.
The Flyers are finally healthy and lead the division on a points per game basis. The Penguins only trail the Flyers by two points but are +1,100 to win the division compared to +400 for the Flyers. That’s what the books think of the Pens.
Philadelphia has won eight of its last 10 road games and will go with goalie Brian Elliott again. The veteran has been earning more starts due to the struggles from Carter Hart and has posted spectacular numbers to date. On the year, Elliott is 6-1 SU with a 2.15 goals-against average and a .926 save percentage. Elliott is 3-0 SU on the road this year.
Only four other teams have allowed more goals against per game this year than the Penguins at 3.23. They also own the fourth-worst team save percentage in the league as goalies Tristan Jarry and Casey DeSmith have both been underwhelming this season.
Pittsburgh has not been receiving a lot of goal support lately from their two best offensive players, as well. Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin have combined for just two goals across the Pens’ last seven games.
With Jarry’s late collapse on Thursday, the Pens could turn to DeSmith. The Pens’ No. 2 was victorious against the Flyers on March 2, but saw just 27 shots as the Flyers failed to create many good scoring chances and finished with under two expected goals in the 5-2 loss.
With the Flyers dressing a near-full squad, first place in the East Division in sight and coming off an emotional win on Thursday, Philadelphia has us reaching for our pockets. The visitors are 2-0 SU this year in early games while the Pens haven’t played before 5 p.m. since January 17.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia ML (-115)
Over/Under pick
Combined, these two teams are 26-16 O/U on the season and have hit the Over in each of their four matchups this year with a total of 30 goals being scored. Both clubs are having trouble keeping pucks out of the net, as they’re both giving up three or more goals per game this season.
The Pens’ offense boasts league average numbers in goals per game, but their average of 2.95 is still respectable. The Philadelphia offense has been aided by the league’s best shooting percentage and has scored more goals per game than 27 NHL clubs.
The Flyers are dividing up their scoring across all three lines as no forward hit 20 minutes of ice time on Thursday. The balanced attack of Philadelphia could create problems for one of the league’s worst bluelines. When Michael Matheson and Marcus Pettersson are two of your three highest-paid defenders, you’re going to struggle to stop teams more nights than most.
Philadelphia doesn’t need the power-play to put points up on the board. They lead the league in 5x5 goals per game at 2.4. Of the 16 goals that Philly has scored in its last five games, 13 of them were at even strength. Pittsburgh is a bottom-10 team in 5x5 goals against per game.
PREDICTION: Over 6 (-110)
Flyers vs Penguins betting card
- Philadelphia ML (-115)
- Over 6 (-110)
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