The battle of Alberta will see its fourth installment Saturday night as the suddenly-struggling Edmonton Oilers host the Calgary Flames.
Edmonton is coming off a one-goal three-game sweeping at the hands of the Maple Leafs and will look to get things turned around in primetime.
Oddsmakers have the Oilers as -132 home favorites with the total opening at 6.5 and trending to the Under.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Calgary Flames vs Edmonton Oilers for Saturday, March 6 (10:00 PM EST).
Calgary Flames at Edmonton Oilers betting preview
Injuries
Flames: No injuries to report.
Oilers: Dominik Kahun C (out), Zack Zassian F (out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs. Oilers.
NHL sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonEdmonton opened as a -134 favorite at FanDuel and quickly moved to -146 late Friday night, but the price dipped to -130 by lunch hour today. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Oilers are back at -134, with ticket count 3/1 and money 4/1 on Edmonton. The total opened at 6.5 flat, and the price on the Under is now out to -122, with 52 percent of bets/57 percent of cash on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gameMoneyline pick
Just a week ago, the Edmonton Oilers were the hottest team in the league, winning five of their previous six games. However, a terrible three-game set against Toronto saw them score just a single goal in 180 minutes. Connor McDavid & Co. look to rebound against a Flames team that just canned their coach.
With an 11-11-2 record, Calgary decided to part ways with head coach Geoff Ward and replace him with Darryl Sutter. Sutter has been close to the team over the last 20 years, as he was a head coach and GM before taking on the new gig — sweet career arc.
We’re big supporters of teams playing hard for a new head coach’s first game. A veteran coach like Sutter, who has 634 career NHL wins and a .565 winning percentage as a head coach, should be able to fire up this underperforming club, at least in the short term.
Before Calgary dropped two of four games to the Senators and got their coach sacked, the North’s fifth-placed team took three of a possible four points against the first-place Leafs - the same Toronto team that embarrassed the Oilers.
No. 1 starter Jacob Markstrom should see his return in net for the Flames. Markstrom has posted league-average numbers, but is the better option over backup David Rittich. They also have the extra motivation of paying back a 7-1 loss just two weeks ago — a game where Calgary had the better chance and finished with 4.6 expected goals.
The Oilers faced three different Toronto goalies last week and managed just one goal. It was a long series for Edmonton and a rough stretch with frustrations viscerally apparent.
Netminder Mike Smith went 0-2 SU in that series and allowed 10 goals in two starts. The Edmonton goalie saw the Leafs go for 3-for-6 on the power play as his team continues to roll out a bottom-10 penalty kill.
This is a great spot for the Flames at +110 and we’re tying our tents to the visiting team in the late game.
PREDICTION: Calgary ML (+110)
Over/Under pick
This series brings out the Over in both clubs. The Over is 6-3-1 in the last nine meetings with each game’s total closing at 6 or higher. Books are banking on another shootout with Saturday’s total opening at 6.5.
Before its three straight losses to the Maple Leafs, Edmonton was scoring over four goals per game and was leading the league. The power play was netting at will and McDavid was averaging two points a night. This Oilers’ offense is too good not to score and could use this rivalry to jumpstart its attack.
The Flames are 3-0-1 O/U in their last four and are coming off a seven-goal outing versus the Senators with all seven coming at even strength. Some new coaching motivation should help drive Calgary’s offense that has underperformed to date. Facing a goalie in Smith who is not at his best will help, too.
Predicting a goalie's form in their first game back from injury is a crapshoot. The rest could have been great for Markstrom, but he also allowed 10 goals in his two games before the injury and was pulled in both. Edmonton got five past him in under 30 minutes in the most recent outing.
We’re backing the Over, which, for the intuitive, is hitting at 49.1 percent this year.
PREDICTION: Over 6.5 (-105)
Flames vs Oilers betting card
- Calgary ML (+110)
- Over 6.5 (-105)
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