Flames vs Kraken Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: December 28

There is a Pacific Division tilt with the surprising third-place Seattle Kraken hosting the fifth-place Calgary Flames.

This game will be Seattle’s first since the holiday recess while Calgary enters this contest on the second half of a back-to-back following last night’s 2-1 loss in the Battle of Alberta.

NHL odds have this game listed as a pick ‘em, but will the Kraken's rest be an advantage... or does rust give the edge to the Flames?

My free NHL picks for Flames vs. Kraken break down which way you should be betting tonight's tilt.

Flames vs Kraken best odds

Flames vs Kraken picks and predictions

Simply put, the Calgary Flames are a much better team than their 16-13-7 record indicates. A couple of variables have led to this underwhelming first half of the season, which could change over the second half.

First of all, this team is still figuring out the chemistry after a large roster turnover during the off-season. After losing Matthew Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau and replacing them with Nazem Kadri, Jonathan Huberdeau, and MacKenzie Weegar, the team operates at a much different pace than they were accustomed to.

Second, the Flames cannot catch a break in overtime, currently tied for a league-worst seven overtime losses in just 10 games.

Positive regression is looming for this team, because their play is much better than that of a team barely above .500. At 5-on-5, the Flames rank fourth in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) and third in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) — meanwhile, the Seattle Kraken rank 31st and eighth, respectively, in those two categories.

After starter Jacob Markstrom started last night, backup goaltender Dan Vladar is expected to get the start between the pipes, but that's not necessarily a bad thing: Through 12 outings this season, Vladar is 5-4-3 with a .903 SV% and 2.90 GAA, a nearly identical GAA and a better SV% than the Flames' No. 1 netminder.

Across the ice, goaltender Martin Jones is slated to start for Seattle, who possesses a .888 SV% and 2.99 GAA over 23 appearances this year.

While the Kraken are more rested and are on home ice, that is not enough to justify this game’s price of a pick ‘em.

The Flames boast the better offense, defense, and goaltender in this matchup. Look for a much stronger second half of the season from Calgary, starting tonight against Seattle.

My best bet: Flames moneyline (-110)

Flames vs Kraken moneyline analysis

For those who enjoy a bit more risk, taking Calgary’s -1.5 puck line in the +200 range is not the worst play to make either.

The Flames were 4-0 against Seattle last year with three of those wins by multiple goals, although they did lose the only matchup so far this season, albeit a 5-4 loss coming in early November when Calgary had 1.2 more expected goals.

A variety of factors have led to this short line on Calgary, including its slow start, Seattle's impressive 18-10-4 start, and the fact that Seattle is rested on home ice.

However, in my eyes, those factors do not outweigh the fact that the Flames are generally playing better hockey in all three zones and have more dynamic talent.

Flames vs Kraken Over/Under analysis

I would lean towards the Over in this contest but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. Neither of these goaltenders have excelled in the crease, with each posting a save percentage south of .904 — outside the Top 40 goalies in the league.

Based on their metrics, positive regression is unlikely for either netminder as they both rank in the Bottom 10 among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAA/60) at 5-on-5. However, in front of Vladar and Jones are two defenses that rank in the Top 10 in the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.

These defenses could counteract the poor goaltending, plus I don't trust Seattle’s offense, which ranks second-last in the league in xGF/60 at 5-on-5.

Flames vs Kraken betting trend to know

The Flames have won four of the five career meetings between these two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Flames vs Kraken.

Flames vs Kraken game info

Flames vs Kraken key injuries

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