With the Frozen Frenzy in the rear-view mirror, Friday’s NHL slate features one game as the New Jersey Devils host the Washington Capitals in a Metropolitan Division tilt on TNT.
Washington comes off last night’s 4-1 loss to the Toronto Maple Leafs while New Jersey coasted to a 5-2 win over the Montreal Canadiens.
Will the Devils take care of business once again, or can the Caps pull off the road upset? I break down tonight's NHL odds and offer up free NHL picks for Capitals vs. Devils on Wednesday, October 25.
Capitals vs Devils odds
Capitals vs Devils predictions
The Spencer Carbery experiment has not gone well thus far for the Washington Capitals, posting a 1-3-1 record through five games and sitting in the basement of the Metro. The offense just can’t seem to get anything going, especially when not on the man-advantage.
At 5-on-5, the Caps rank 22nd in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60). However, the blue line has held up its end of the bargain as they rank 11th in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5-on-5.
With that combination, it’s not shocking that the Under is 4-1 through their first five games. A big question mark for this game is Hunter Shepard, who makes his NHL debut for Washington between the pipes.
His AHL track record is tremendous, posting a 30-11-5 record with a .920 SV% and 2.11 GAA through 47 appearances over the past four seasons. This success could translate into the NHL, despite a tough task against a strong New Jersey Devils lineup.
With that said, New Jersey is primed for regression offensively as they rank 18th in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. Like Washington, they also rank higher defensively.
In the second half of a back-to-back, the Devils turn to goaltender Akira Schmid in the crease. Through two career starts against the Capitals, Schmid is 2-0 with a stellar .952 SV% and 1.11 GAA.
Given the back-to-back situation for both teams, and with goalies to have posted good numbers, I'm willing to play the Under tonight at a good plus-money price.
My best bet: Under 6.5 (+110 at FanDuel)
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Capitals vs Devils same-game parlay
Under 6.5
Capitals moneyline
I think Washington is a better team than its 1-3-1 record suggests. The air was sucked out of the arena last night when Alexander Ovechkin’s opening goal got waved off after a successful challenge, and the team never regained that juice that it had before that moment.
Analytically, the Caps are right alongside the Devils in both xGF/60 and xGA/60 at 5-on-5. Meanwhile, the team may get a bit of extra fire in them for Shepard’s NHL debut, and he has been fantastic in the AHL.
Schmid’s track record against the Capitals is a bit concerning, along with playing on home ice, but +205 is a very wide number that feels inflated due to recency bias. That’s typically a number you reserve against teams like the Yotes and the Sharks, and I don’t think Washington is on that level despite its poor start.
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Capitals vs Devils moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Devils opened as a –225 favorite and have since been bet down to -255. I think the market will keep pushing this number up, especially with how opposite these teams have looked thus far and New Jersey playing on its home ice.
That brings us to the total, which opened at 6.5 and has remained at that number. These two teams have played a completely opposite style thus far and, subsequently, have been involved in different styles of games.
New Jersey plays fast and has seen the Over go 5-0 to start the campaign while Washington plays at a much more sluggish pace and has seen the Under go 4-1 through the first five games.
Capitals vs Devils betting trend to know
The Under is 4-1 through Washington’s first five games this season. Find more NHL betting trends for Capitals vs. Devils.
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Capitals vs Devils game info
| Location: | Prudential Center, Newark, NJ |
| Date: | Wednesday, October 25, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
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