It’s an Original Six showdown at the Bell Centre between the Boston Bruins and Montreal Canadiens on Thursday, and it’s the visiting Bruins trading as a huge road favorite in the NHL odds.
Boston is coming off an uncharacteristic 5-1 loss to the St. Louis Blues on Monday, while Montreal took care of the Columbus Blue Jackets with a tidy 3-0 win Tuesday. Still, the Habs sport a basement-dwelling 10-17-5 record since the holiday break and haven’t won consecutive games since mid-January.
Will this Atlantic Division clash between these long-time rivals play out as oddsmakers expect, or will the Canadiens rise to the occasion and keep it competitive on home ice?
Here’s our preview and free NHL picks for the Bruins vs. Canadiens matchup on Thursday, March 14.
Bruins vs Canadiens odds
Bruins vs Canadiens predictions
I’m expecting a bounce-back showing from the Boston Bruins on Thursday. They’re still battling for top seed in the Eastern Conference, and playing down to their competition in consecutive games won’t be in the cards.
Additionally, while the Bruins have statistical shortcomings, Boston still tops the Montreal Canadiens in Corsi For percentage, goals percentage, and expected goals percentage at 5-on-5. The Bruins are also better on both sides of special teams.
Montreal ranks 28th in CF% (45.8%) and 27th in goals per 60 minutes (2.27) at 5-on-5, so I’m not anticipating them generating consistent offense at even strength. Plus, Boston boasts the third-best team save percentage at 5-on-5, and projected starter Linus Ullmark has turned away 62 of 65 shots across his past two starts.
In the opposite crease, Habs starter Sam Montembeault has allowed three goals or more in eight of his past 10 starts and sports a confidence-crippling .893 save percentage and 3.77 GAA during the stretch.
The Canadiens are also an easy team to match up against because they lack scoring depth, and I’m anticipating the Bruins keeping Montreal’s go-to line of Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky in check.
For what it’s worth, the Bruins have also beaten the Canadiens in 12 of their past 13 meetings.
My best bet: Bruins win in regulation (-149 at Sports Interaction)
Bruins vs Canadiens same-game parlay
Bruins moneyline
Bruins 1P moneyline
Canadiens team total Under 2.5
Boston has scored the fifth-most goals in the first period this season, and as discussed, I’m expecting the Bruins to start on time tonight following Monday’s poor showing. Montreal ranks 26th in the league in first-period goals, and the Canadiens have also allowed the seventh-most goals per game overall (3.43).
Finally, I anticipate Ullmark continuing to play well in the Boston crease and the Canadiens continuing to struggle to generate quality offensive chances. The Habs rank 20th in expected goals per 60 (2.53) and 22nd in high-danger scoring chances per 60 (10.89) at 5-on-5, after all.
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Bruins vs Canadiens moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There has been a slight adjustment to the moneyline odds in this game since opening Wednesday. Boston opened as a -250 favorite at Sports Interaction and has moved to -225 as of Thursday morning, which is a shift of just 2.2% of implied probability. I’m not anticipating any notable line movement leading into puck drop, either. These prices align with my numbers.
The total for this game is far more interesting because there isn’t a consensus number. Sports Interaction opened at 6 before moving to 5.5 Wednesday evening, with the Over is carrying the higher vig. Pinnacle has gone the opposite direction, with a fleeting 5.5 at opening quickly moving to 6.
Bruins vs Canadiens betting trend to know
Boston has won 12 of the past 13 meetings between these two teams. Find more NHL betting trends for Bruins vs. Canadiens.
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Bruins vs Canadiens game info
| Location: | Bell Centre, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Thursday, March 14, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN2, NESN |
Bruins vs Canadiens latest injuries
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