It's a warm-up Monday in the NHL, with all 32 teams in action tomorrow for the Frozen Frenzy. It's a three-game slate with a holiday afternoon game in Buffalo, and after a winning day yesterday, it's another great day to build the bankroll with my NHL picks.
The Sabres have a great opportunity to get the power play going today vs. the Panthers, Shane Pinto is getting more ice time than his point prop is suggesting, and the Wild provide a great point-stack opportunity.
These are my favorite NHL predictions for Monday, Oct. 12.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Noah Ostlund power-play point |
25% |
 Shane Pinto Over 0.5 points |
45% |
 Matthew Boldy + Joel Eriksson Ek Over 0.5 points each |
43% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
Start trading with Novig today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Novig promo code 'COVERS' and deposit $10 to get $50 in trade credits!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Pick #1: Noah Ostlund power-play point
Noah Ostlund is centering the top line and first power-play unit. Although the Buffalo Sabres haven't been pouring in goals with the man advantage, they'll have plenty of opportunities today vs. the Panthers.
On the season, the Panthers draw more penalties per game than any other team and, as a result, spend a lot of time shorthanded. Florida is one of the best 5-on-5 defensive teams, but its expected goals against per 60 minutes on the penalty kill ranks in the bottom five in the league.
Ostlund gets plenty of touches on the power play while working the side wall and shouldn't be the longest-priced of the five Buffalo skaters on the top unit.
- Matchup: Panthers vs. Sabres
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: KeyBank Arena, Buffalo, N.Y.
- TV: MSG
Pick #2: Shane Pinto Over 0.5 points
Ottawa has played some low-event hockey to open the season, going 1-4 O/U thanks to Linus Ullmark in net. Meanwhile, the Devils are 2-2, with both wins coming against two of the worst teams in hockey in the Canucks and Flyers.
If I knew 100% that Ullmark was starting for the Sens, I'd play the 47% moneyline. However, with both teams traveling for tomorrow's games, I'd be concerned about a Sam Ersson start, which would make the Over more enticing.
Shane Pinto for a point, however, is a play, with a fair probability of 55%. He's playing 19+ minutes per game as the second-line center, will get the more favorable defensive matchups on the road today, and saw the fourth-most power-play time last game while taking five faceoffs on the man advantage.
He has points in four of his five games and is getting more ice time with the injuries, skating 20+ minutes in three of five games this season.
- Matchup: Senators vs. Devils
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Prudential Center, Newark, N.J.
- TV: SN+
Pick #3: Matthew Boldy + Joel Eriksson Ek Over 0.5 points each
The Wild are loading up the top line at home, and it worked in their 4-1 win over the Panthers on Saturday. That line played 4:30 more at 5-on-5 than the next line, with the trio combining for seven points and contributing to all four goals.
All three players are on the first power-play unit, and the Knights have allowed a power-play goal in three of their last four games.
Meanwhile, the Wild have scored with the man advantage in every game this season and rank second in the NHL in power-play percentage at 37.5%. Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek at home should have a fair probability of 50%.
- Matchup: Golden Knights vs. Wild
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul, Minn.
- TV: ESPN+
- Top picks: 13-15 -0.8 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
