It’s a three-game slate on Canadian Thanksgiving Sunday, with three massive favorites and plenty of reasons to fade the underdogs in my NHL picks.
The Kraken’s offense has been padded against some bottom-tier teams, the Rangers have an elite power-play matchup, and the Hurricanes and Flyers sit on opposite ends of the market rankings.
Here are my favorite NHL predictions for Sunday, Oct. 11.
Today's top NHL predictions
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Kraken team total Under 2.5 |
50% |
 Alexis Lafreniere Over 0.5 power play points |
31% |
 Hurricanes -1.5 |
42% |
Percentages courtesy of Novig, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Pick #1: Seattle Kraken team total Under 2.5
The Seattle Kraken have benefited from some favorable matchups that have padded their offensive numbers. They’re 3-1 SU, but two of those wins came against the Flames and another against the Red Wings. They’ve scored 18 goals in those three wins but managed just three in their two losses to Edmonton and Vegas.
Meanwhile, the Washington Capitals are becoming a physical team to play against and have been getting strong goaltending. Logan Thompson (unconfirmed) ranks second in the league in GSAx/60, while the Kraken rank in the bottom 10 in expected goals for per 60 minutes at all strengths.
I’m comfortable with this Under even if Charlie Lindgren gets the start. It’s an afternoon game on a Canadian holiday weekend, and I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a snoozer.
- Matchup: Kraken vs. Capitals
- Time: 5:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
- TV: SN+
Pick #2: Alexis Lafreniere Over 0.5 power play points
The Vancouver Canucks’ penalty kill has been horrendous. They’ve allowed 10 power-play goals in five games and have given up at least one in every game this season. Their 52.2% kill rate is the worst in hockey, while the New York Rangers rank 11th in power-play percentage at 23.5%.
Alexis Lafreniere is the longest-priced player on the Rangers’ top power-play unit to record a point, but he shouldn’t be. He has a 31% probability of recording a power-play point, and I’d play that up to 34.5%. He leads the team with six points through six games and buried a power-play goal in Friday’s 3-1 loss to Washington.
The Canucks are playing the second half of a back-to-back and will likely turn to a backup in net. They could be even worse on the penalty kill than they’ve been all season, making Lafreniere an intriguing target.
- Matchup: Canucks vs. Rangers
- Time: 6:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Madison Square Garden, New York, NY
- TV: SNP
Pick #3: Hurricanes -1.5
Both teams are playing the second half of a back-to-back, but the gap between the Carolina Hurricanes and Philadelphia Flyers might be one of the biggest in the NHL.
The Flyers are in contention for the worst team in the league. They’ve scored exactly one goal in three straight games, are winless in six, and rank dead last in xGoal%, Corsi%, and xGA/60. This team is brutal, and turning to backup Joseph Woll isn’t going to ignite a listless offense.
Philly can’t score, while the Canes have potted 21 goals during their current four-game winning streak. I have Carolina’s puck line closer to a 50% fair probability.
- Matchup: Hurricanes vs. Flyers
- Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Xfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia, PA
- TV: SN+
- Top picks: 11-14 -3.3 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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