NFL Wild Card Bet Now, Bet Later: Jags Look Good Against Wounded Chargers

If you thought regular season NFL lines were tough to beat, just wait until you get a load of these NFL Wild Card Round odds.

With a limited amount of playoff teams and a season’s worth of data, oddsmakers don’t give much wiggle room when it comes to the opening spreads and totals for postseason games.

We size up the first slate of playoff lines as they roll out here on Sunday, giving you the best NFL odds to bet now and the Wild Card lines you may want to bet later.

Wild Card bet now, bet later picks

• Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5): Bet Now
• Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet Later
• Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44): Bet Now
• New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Under 47.5): Bet Later

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5): Bet Now

The first few books opening odds on the AFC Wild Card matchup between the Jaguars and Chargers (while the Bolts were playing out their Week 18 contest) has Los Angeles set as low as -1.5 while others had L.A. as 2.5-point road chalk in Jacksonville.

Los Angeles, locked into the No. 5 seed in the AFC and with nothing to gain, marched out its starters against the Broncos in Week 18 and watched key guys like LB Joey Bosa, WR Mike Williams, and LB Kenneth Murray Jr. leave the game with injuries. The severity of those injuries remains to be seen, but the Bolts have been plagued by ailments all season.

The Jaguars picked up a win-and-in victory over Tennessee at home on Saturday night but needed a defensive touchdown to get past a Titans squad with an inexperienced backup QB under center. Jacksonville didn’t look great, failing to record a first down in the fourth quarter and getting outgained 312-222 in yardage. 

That unimpressive win and a questionable strength of schedule down the home stretch — faced the likes of Joshua Dobbs, Davis Mills, and Zach Wilson at QB — is taking the shine off the Jags’ AFC South title and has them as home pups. Los Angeles has also been hot but, much like the Jaguars, has played some weaker foes like Denver, L.A. Rams, and Indianapolis to close out the campaign.

Jacksonville has ranked out among the elite clubs in terms of advanced metrics during its five-game winning streak, sitting neck-and-neck with the Chargers in EPA per play/allowed per play. That's garnered plenty of sharp money on the Jaguars in the past month.

Given the range of spread from Jacksonville +1.5 to +2.5, home field in the playoffs, and the Chargers' unnecessary injury issues from Week 18, bettors may want to grab the higher number on the home underdog now.

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet Later

This Wild Card pairing was being predicted two months ago, with plenty of people joking that Dallas would stumble vs. Tom Brady and the Bucs in this playoff opener. And now that we’re here, no one’s laughing.

Tampa Bay has looked “improved” over the past month, including coming through in a must-win game versus Carolina for the division crown. The Buccaneers offense has shown flashes of the brilliance we all expected from Brady & Co. and put up 17 first-half points in Week 18 before sitting the starters.

Dallas, which opened as a field-goal favorite on the road in the Wild Card Round, hasn’t looked sharp since Week 12. Entering Week 18, the Cowboys managed to go 5-1 SU in the previous six games but posted a 2-3-1 ATS count, and then marched out an embarrassing effort versus Washington on Sunday. Honestly, they would’ve been better off settling for the No. 5 seed and resting the starters.

When you break it all down, Dallas is the better team and should be the favorite. But Brady will have his share of backers in the postseason and the media will absolutely hype the hell out the Cowboys’ struggles against the GOAT (Dallas is 0-7 vs. Brady all-time), including a Week 1 loss to Tampa Bay.

If you’re not counting the Cowboys out, wait and watch this spread go below a field goal before getting down on Dallas.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Over 44): Bet Now

These AFC North foes played Over the closing total of 39 points in Week 18, with the Bengals winning 27-16 but really slowing down in the second half with only a single field goal after putting up 24 points in the first 30 minutes - six of which came from a defensive scoop-and-score.

The opening total for that regular-season finale was 42.5 points with QB Tyler Huntley expected to start for Baltimore. Instead, Huntley sat out with injuries and QB3 Anthony Brown was under center, dragging this total to that closing mark of 39 points.

The opening Over/Under for the Wild Card is 44 points — just a point higher than the total number of points produced by these teams Sunday. It won't take much more from them to pump out 45 or more points next weekend. 

Huntley has a good chance to be back for the Wild Card Round and perhaps even starter Lamar Jackson, which will pump this Over/Under up with news that either QB is looking probable for the postseason start. 

We all know Cincinnati can put up the points — ranking out Top 5 in EPA per play — and left money on the table with a 1-for-3 day in the red zone in Week 18. The Bengals will not be as passive in this playoff game as they were in the second half of Sunday’s showdown, and anyone but Brown at QB should boost Baltimore’s attack.

If you're leaning Over, bet it now before the Ravens' QB news puffs this number up.

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (Under 47.5): Bet Later

Football bettors have some fresh intel on this total after these Wild Card contestants faced off on Xmas Eve, with the Vikings winning a 27-24 thriller over the Giants that eclipsed the closing total of 48 points.

That Over/Under opened at 47.5 — the same stand that books are taking on this playoff total — and got pushed past the number thanks to 28 combined fourth-quarter points from these teams. 

Bettors may look to that matchup and also gravitate toward the Over in the playoff meeting. However, postseason football is a different beast and both teams will have plenty of valuable game film to study before this weekend’s go-around.

The Giants closed the season with an uptick in defensive performance, finishing No. 9 in EPA allowed per play since Week 15, and come after Kirk Cousins with one of the most blitz-happy defenses in the NFL that ranks Top 5 in pressure rate. 

Cousins sees his completion percentage slip to 56.6% when blitzed while picking up just 5.8 yards per attempt. He passed for 299 yards and three touchdowns but was sacked four times in that last meeting with New York. 

The G-Men will take to the ground on offense and try to control the tempo, putting the brakes on a fast Minnesota pace and limiting the Vikes' touches. These teams entered the fourth quarter of that Week 16 matchup with a 13-10 score before the floodgates broke open in the closing 15 minutes.

If you like the Under, pump the breaks and see if bettors buy into that December 24 result. You might be to score an extra half-point of headroom.

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