Wild Card NFL Trend Report: Bills Struggle When Favored Big

The Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers have been playing the waiting game with their clash being postponed to Monday. Will that change what has been an inevitable trend as the Bills seem to struggle when favored by 10+?

Jan 14, 2024 • 20:11 ET • 4 min read

It’s playoff time baby!

Handicapping Wild Card odds can get a little tricky compared to your run-of-the-mill regular season matchup. It’s win or go home, which means emotions that are impossible to predict come into play, often leading to unlikely results. 

Occasionally, an under-the-radar player will rise to the occasion and help lead his team to victory, while other times, superstar players and coaches will melt under the bright lights and choke away victories, watching their Super Bowl odds disappear.

So, while you shouldn’t drift away from your typical handicapping process when making your NFL picks, don’t be shocked if you get the complete opposite results of where your numbers lead you for a few of these games.

I certainly won't be shying away from my NFL odds handicapping process which led to a profit of 33.79 units during the regular season. Many of those picks were built off NFL betting trends found in this weekly article, so hopefully, I, and we, can have a profitable postseason!

Best NFL Wild Card betting trends

Browns vs Texans

The trend: The Browns have gone Over in all eight of their road games this season

Cleveland Browns road games had an average of 54 points. The defense that everyone makes a big deal about doesn’t travel well as they’ve allowed an average of 29.6 points on the road. These teams played in Houston back on Christmas Eve, and despite C.J. Stroud not playing, they combined for 58 points. This game has a total of 44.

See all Browns vs Texans trends for Wild Card.

Dolphins vs Chiefs

The trend: The Chiefs have gone Under the second-half total in 15 of 17 games

The trend that just wouldn’t quit during the regular season is back for the playoffs. Kansas City Chiefs’ second halves averaged just 14.9 combined points during the regular season, with that number dipping to 13.8 in their home games.

The Miami Dolphins have also been silenced in the second half to close out the regular season, with just 15 total second-half points in their last three games. Miami shut out Kansas City in the final 30 minutes when these sides met in Germany. The 2H total for this game is 21.5. 

See all Dolphins vs Chiefs trends for Wild Card.

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Steelers vs Bills

The trend: The Bills are 0-8 ATS in their last eight games as a double-digit favorite (playoffs included)

The Buffalo Bills are certainly a sexy contender entering the playoffs, but they have a poor habit of playing down to the competition which has resulted in tight games against the likes of Bailey Zappe, Easton Stick, and Zach Wilson.

And don’t forget they barely squeaked by Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins as a 15-point favorite in last season’s Wild Card game. Buffalo is favored by 10, and trends might be aligning here as the Pittsburgh Steelers are on a 9-4 ATS run as an underdog.

See all Steelers vs Bills trends for Wild Card.

Packers vs Cowboys

The trend: The Cowboys have gone Over their team total in seven of eight home games

The Dallas Cowboys came up short in their final home game of the season, but they scored at least 30 points in every other home outing and even crossed 40 points on four separate occasions.

The Green Bay Packers defense is a little tricky to judge since it only played one Top 10 scoring offense who had their starting QB, but there have been some red flags such as allowing back-to-back 30+ point games to the Bucs and Panthers (!!!) in December. Dallas’ team total is 30.5. 

See all Packers vs Cowboys trends for Wild Card.

Rams vs Lions

The trend: These teams are a combined 11-3 to the Over since Week 12

It’s no coincidence this game has the highest total of the Week at 51.5. The Los Angeles Rams come into the game red-hot — averaging 31.3 points in Matthew Stafford’s last six starts — while the Detroit Lions average 30.5 points at home. It could be a great day for Stafford and Jared Goff as each defense struggles against the pass, ranking 27th and 31st in yards allowed per completion. 

See all Rams vs Lions trends for Wild Card.

Eagles vs Buccaneers

The trend: The Eagles’ road Under record plus the Bucs’ home Under record is 13-4

We’ve got a total of 44 points for this game, which is 9.3 points higher than the average combined score in Tampa Bay Buccaneers home games this season. The Philadelphia Eagles have had trouble putting up points on the road where they average just 20.7 points — 10.2 fewer points than what they average at home. These teams met in Tampa Bay back in Week 3 where the Birds won 25-11.

See all Eagles vs Buccaneers trends for Wild Card.

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