Five weeks of football is more than enough for NFL bettors to start forming some solid opinions on teams — good or bad. It’s also an abundance of data to pump into the oddsmakers’ power ratings, meaning the NFL Week 6 odds will have a slim margin of error for bookmakers.
That means getting the best number for your wager is vital to surviving the mid-October slate. I size up the Week 6 opening point spreads and totals and tell you which ones to bet now and which ones to bet later.
Week 6 bet now, bet later picks
- Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-9): Bet Now
- San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5): Bet Later
- Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43.5) Bet Now
- Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Over 40): Bet Later
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-9): Bet Now
The Panthers are possibly the worst team in the NFL right now and, depending on when you read this, head coach Matt Rhule may or may not still have a job.
But the big reason you’ll want to grab the lowest line you can with the Rams right now is that Carolina QB Baker Mayfield was seen wearing a walking boot on his left foot following the Panthers' squash of a loss to San Francisco on Sunday.
Mayfield wasn’t playing great while healthy, but Carolina is in a pickle when it comes to the QB position. Sam Darnold is still recovering from a bad ankle sprain, leaving P.J. Walker as the potential starter in Week 6 if Mayfield is out of action.
Coming off a second straight loss, Los Angeles is in rare air after getting thrown around by Dallas and San Francisco in its past two outings. The offense is sputtering, and pass protection is a big issue, but Los Angeles is still a force defensively and a couple of tiers above Carolina at this point.
This line is already trending as high as -10 at some Vegas shops. Bet Rams -9 now if you aren’t soured on the Super Bowl champs.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5): Bet Later
Betting on the Falcons has been an experience so far in 2022.
Atlanta is punching above its weight class after being pegged as one of the worst teams heading into the season, managing to cover the spread in all five games so far. That includes another backdoor cover against the Buccaneers on Sunday, rallying for 15 points in the fourth quarter to close the gap for a 21-15 loss at 10-point pups.
The Falcons are back home and getting +5.5 to visiting San Francisco, with those quickly turning into +6. The Niners just blew the doors off the Carolina Panthers on both sides of the ball and are picking up steam, with back-to-back wins and three victories in their last four outings.
An injury to star DE Nick Bosa is the latest big-name injury for the 49ers (he sat out the second half of Week 5 with a groin injury), but that shouldn’t slow the public push toward San Francisco. Atlanta has its own ailments, but if you are backing the "best bet in football," wait and see how high this line runs before going all-in on the ATL.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43.5): Bet Now
The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys come to Philadelphia to face the unblemished Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. While there’s a chance Dak Prescott could be ready, it really sounds like he’s a week or two away. That means a more ground-orientated offense for Dallas, which just pounded out the Rams for 163 yards on 34 carries.
The Eagles are also opting for the run. Philadelphia’s offense is anchored in the ground-and-pound, and even though Jalen Hurts and this passing game have had their moments, this Dallas defense is a dangerous bunch. The Cowboys haven’t allowed an opponent to top 20 points and are coming off a three-takeaway, five-sack effort in L.A.
Philly’s defense is no slouch either, allowing an average of just 13.25 points in the past four games. With the chilly October night air setting the stage in Lincoln Financial Field, this Week 6 NFC East encounter feels like a grinder. Get the Under 43.5 now.
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Over 40): Bet Later
If you thought last Thursday’s primetime game was a stinker, just wait until you see the total for Week 6’s matchup between the Bears and Commanders. Books opened this at 40 points and the number has started to slide to 39.5 points.
On the surface, this game looks like one you would pass up in favor of a root canal but there could be value with the Over should the public perception of these teams continue to drag the number down.
The Bears offense was a laughingstock entering Week 5, but Chicago started to move the chains with QB Justin Fields doing damage with his arm and his legs in the second half against the Vikings. Fields completed 71.4% of throws for an average of 9.9 yards per attempt — a massive upgrade from the past four weeks.
The same could be said for Washington, which has totaled a mere 35 points over the past three weeks. The Commanders scored 17 of those points in Sunday's loss to Tennessee but outgained the Titans 385-241. A goal-line INT from Carson Wentz (who passed for 359 yards) killed a would-be win for Washington.
If you don’t have anything better to do on Thursday, maybe wait and see if this total keeps shrinking before coming back on the Over. Or maybe get the laundry done and catch up on whatever nerdy medieval show you’re streaming. Your call.
