Week 14 of the NFL season is here and so is another edition of my NFL Trend Report, which is hopefully putting a little bit of money in your pocket ahead of the holiday season!
Things are starting to get messy in the NFL as it seems like a big-time starting quarterback is dropping each week while winter weather is about to pick up, which could wreak havoc on a few games in the Week 14 odds.
While the league-wide Under trend is starting to cool off — Overs have gone 18-11 over the last two weeks — we’re seeing some rock-bottom totals in this week's NFL odds in games headlined by backup quarterbacks and potentially nasty weather.
On Thursday night, it’ll be Bailey Zappe vs. Mitch Trubisky in Pittsburgh in a game that has a total of 30 points. Not to be outdone, on Sunday, it’s looking like C.J. Beathard and the Jaguars in Cleveland vs. Joe Flacco and the Browns in a game with a total of 30.5 that could feature heavy winds and rain.
Many are quick to simply pass on low totals like this, but in some cases, they should probably be even lower. We see games every week where the teams fail to combine to score 30 points, so if your numbers and the game situation support it, don’t be scared to fire on that Under with your NFL picks.
Let’s get into the good stuff and get a look at the latest NFL betting trends!
Best NFL Week 14 betting trends
Patriots vs Steelers
The trend: These teams are a combined 19-5 to the Under this season
What do you get when you take this trend, Mitch Trubisky, and the incompetence of the New England Patriots offense? You get the lowest total of the season of 30 points! That still might not be low enough considering the Patriots have played in three straight games that failed to top 17 combined points. Two of the Pittsburgh Steelers' last three games have also stayed under 30 combined points, so don’t be intimidated by the low number if you’re considering the Under.
Buccaneers vs Falcons
The trend: Atlanta is 1-5 ATS on the first half spread at home
The Atlanta Falcons are getting off to slow starts at home this season, which pairs up well with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers being a good first-half bet on the road, where they’ve gone 4-2 against the spread. Regardless of location, Tampa is scoring more first-half points than Atlanta and is allowing fewer. The Bucs can be had on the first-half spread at +0.5.
Rams vs Ravens
The trend: The Ravens are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games as a favorite of seven or more
The Baltimore Ravens have made a horrible habit of playing down to the competition as a favorite of seven or more points, which is the case in this game vs. the Los Angeles Rams, where they’re favored by 7.5. Oddly enough, the Ravens have also been bad after their bye weeks, going 1-4 ATS in the last five seasons despite all of those games being at home.
Lions vs Bears
The trend: The Lions’ last four games have had an average combined score of 62 points
Small sample size here, but perhaps the start of a fun Over trend for the Detroit Lions as each of these games has topped the 50-point mark. These two teams have played in high-scoring games in their last three matchups with those contests seeing an average combined score of 56.3. This game has a total of 41.
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Colts vs Bengals
The trend: The Colts have gone Over their team total in 10 of 12 games
Big props to Shane Steichen, who has this offense ranked eighth in scoring with 25 points per game despite backup Gardiner Minshew filling in for Anthony Richardson for most of the season. The Indianapolis Colts' team total for this matchup is at 20.5 and they should have a good shot at topping this number against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that ranks dead last in yards allowed per play.
Jaguars vs Browns
The trend: The Browns are allowing just 10.2 points per game in Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns are a completely different defense on their home field — on the road, they’re allowing a shocking 30.7 points per game. Either way, their defense looks to be in a favorable position hosting a team that’s only played in warm weather in Florida and Texas over the last month who’ll likely be starting C.J. Beathard. The Jacksonville Jaguars’ team total is at 13.5 which is a number four of six opponents in Cleveland have stayed under this season.
Panthers vs Saints
The trend: The Saints are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games
So much for any sort of home-field advantage for the New Orleans Saints, who look to be on the verge of falling apart after three straight losses and an avalanche of injuries. The Carolina Panthers, who fell apart long ago, to be fair, have been very competitive against New Orleans over the past few seasons, going 8-3-1 ATS. The Panthers are a 5.5-point underdog in this game.
Texans vs Jets
The trend: The Jets haven’t scored more than 13 points in six straight games
The New York Jets offense keeps finding new ways to define rock bottom as things have gotten so bad that apparently, they want Zach Wilson to start for them again. The Jets are the only team in the NFL that’s averaging less than one offensive touchdown per game and they easily rank last in the league in both third down and red zone offense. Their team total for this game is 13.5 points.
Vikings vs Raiders
The trend: The Vikings are 11-0-1 to the first-quarter Under
The beautiful trend that keeps on giving is back, but its time might be running up. Like in the Minnesota Vikings’ last two games, the first quarter total is at 7.5, but the Under is heavily juiced to -145 and that juice may not be worth the squeeze. I’ll monitor the number as the game approaches, but bettors should proceed with caution as the jig might be up.
Seahawks vs 49ers
The trend: The 49ers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games
Teams come into San Francisco and get obliterated. Fifteen of the games in this 20-game trend saw the 49ers win by at least 13 points, including four of their five home games this season. Whether they’re home or away, San Francisco has been winning by large margins all season as seven of its nine wins have come by 18 or more points! The Niners are favored by 10.5 in this game.
Bills vs Chiefs
The trend: The Chiefs are 18-3 off a loss since Mahomes became their starter
Back-to-back losses for the Kansas City Chiefs have been extremely rare since Patrick Mahomes stepped in as the starter in 2018. They should have their hands full with the Buffalo Bills in this one, but the Chiefs tend to rise to the occasions as a short favorite, as they’ve gone 8-4 SU as a favorite between one and three points since 2018. KC is favored by 2.5 and is available on the moneyline in the -140 range.
Broncos vs Chargers
The trend: The Chargers have scored first in 16 of their last 19 games
At least the Los Angeles Chargers are doing one thing right. This trend is 10-2 this season and 5-1 on their home field. Los Angeles is available at -124 to be the first team to score in this game.
Eagles vs Cowboys
The trend: Dallas has gone Over its team total in all six of its home games
If it’s not broke… The Dallas Cowboys are averaging a staggering 41 points in their six home games this season. Over their last four home games, that number shoots up to a ridiculous 44.5. They racked up 406 total yards against the Eagles in Philadelphia a few weeks ago and dropped 40 on the Eagles' defense when they came to town last season. Dallas’ team total is set at a very reasonable 27.5 points.
Titans vs Dolphins
The trend: The Dolphins are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite
Home sweet home for the Dolphins, who’ve been cleaning up in Miami! This game features the biggest spread of the week at 13 points, but Miami is also hot as a big favorite, going 6-1 ATS as a favorite of more than seven since last season. It should be noted that the Dolphins rank second in points per game at home with 38.8, while the Tennessee Titans are 31st in points per game on the road with just 12.3.
Packers vs Giants
The trend: The Packers are 16-0 SU in their last 16 games played in December
What a trend! Of course, the majority of these wins were with Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, but the trend officially started in Matt LaFleur’s first season as head coach. While Green Bay’s -310 moneyline isn’t an appealing bet, the ability to tease them down to -1 should make them a good option for teaser bettors.
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