NFL bettors need to batten down the hatches. There’s a storm brewing in the Week 14 odds.
The extended forecast for the East Coast is a mess, with rain, wind, and even snow showing up on Sunday.
This weather is already moving the NFL odds for the affected games, dropping totals and pushing action to fade indoor teams venturing outside in Week 14.
I break down the forecasts for those open-air outings and highlight which betting markets can best be leveraged this weekend.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers Weather
Given this historically low total in the Thursday Night Football odds, you'd think a hurricane was rolling into Acrisure Stadium. Nope... just two terrible teams.
There’s no snow or rain in the forecast and wind gusts will reach 18 mph blowing SW, cooling the temperatures to feel like the low 30s, but that’s about it.
A rather nice night in Pittsburgh to watch what’s shaping up to be a bad game.
Los Angeles Rams at Baltimore Ravens Weather
Here we go. Now, we’ve got some weather to report.
The forecast for Baltimore calls for rain and sustained winds of 18 mph, with gusts at 32 mph blowing south across the field at M&T Bank Stadium. That nasty crosswind is going to make deeper passes and kicking an issue.
Of course, you have the Los Angeles Rams crossing the country for a 1 p.m. ET kickoff (10 a.m. PT back in California) as an indoor team facing the elements against one of the best home sides in the AFC.
The Rams have played outdoors once in the past nine games, which was a 20-3 loss at Green Bay in sweater weather back in Week 9. Sunday’s game will be much soggier and way windier.
Those conditions benefit the Baltimore Ravens' run-heavy attack, especially when you consider L.A.’s offense sits No. 7 in completed air yards and Matthew Stafford watches his stats dip in outdoor games.
His accuracy, yards per attempt, and passer rating all shrink when exposed to the elements, which includes Stafford throwing an interception in 89% of his outdoor starts.
On top of that, the Rams rely on their special teams a lot. They’re tied for the most field goal attempts (33) while making just 24 of those (72.7%) and punter Ethan Evans has been among the best at his position in 2023 but could see his punts pushed around Sunday.
The prop for longest field goal sits at 46.5 yards O/U while Under 3.5 combined FGMs is priced at -150.
Avoiding tough fourth-down decisions — do you go for it or kick with the wind — will be vital to both teams. The Ravens face fourth downs at the second-lowest clip in the league and also rank among the best third/fourth down defenses in the land.
Baltimore is a touchdown favorite and this Over/Under total has slimmed from 44.5 to 42.5 as of Tuesday morning.
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Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears Weather
The free fall for this total tells the tale of Sunday’s forecast for Solider Field. This Over/Under opened as high as 45.5 points and is down to as low as 40.5 at sharper markets on Tuesday morning.
Models call for the December sampler pack on Sunday: Rain, snow, wind, and cold.
The most disruptive of those elements is the wind, which will blow at sustained speeds close to 20 mph with “Windy City” gusts reaching 30 mph from corner to corner. That’ll cool the “feels like” temperature to 26 degrees.
Much like the Rams, the Detroit Lions haven't played outside much this season with its last outdoor game coming back in Week 7. And much like former face of the franchise Matt Stafford, current quarterback Jared Goff sees his production dip when playing in open-air venues.
If the wind, rain, and snow are as bad as forecast, you’ll see both sides take to the turf rather than air it out.
These foes faced each other on the clean indoor surface of Ford Field on Thanksgiving, with the Lions and Bears combining for almost 300 yards rushing. That means shorter gains with the clock moving, which is always good for Unders.
Chicago opened as a 5-point underdog, but the weather and some early week action from pro bettors have pushed this NFC North spread to a field goal.
Indianapolis Colts at Cincinnati Bengals Weather
A weird game gets even weirder thanks to some volatile Ohio weather in Week 14.
The extended forecast for Cincinnati is calling for rain and winds blowing at sustained speeds of 17 mph with WSW gusts reaching 32 mph from corner to corner. That will have temperatures feeling like the mid-30s down on the field.
The Indianapolis Colts are another indoor team playing in bad weather this week, but Indianapolis has at least felt the fresh air in recent games with stops in Tennessee and Carolina in the last month. Quarterback Gardner Minshew doesn’t see any major splits between outside/indoors.
The Cincinnati Bengals are on a short week after a stunning victory over Jacksonville on Monday Night Football, coming back home with backup QB Jake Browning holding down the passing game. With him under center, the Cincy attack has been conservative and running more, so the wind may not slow up the Bengals too much.
Where things could get wet and wild for this one is turnovers, notably fumbles.
While Cincinnati has been a steady hand and only lost two fumbles on the year (AFC low), the Colts have had a case of the butterfingers with 10 lost fumbles on the season. That includes putting the ball on the turf three times, losing two of those, in the OT win at Tennessee last weekend.
This total opened at 42 points on Monday morning and the Bengals are 1-point underdogs at home.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns Weather
Trevor Lawrence’s ankle will sway the odds more than the weather in Week 14, but it’s pretty close considering the forecast is calling for strong winds in Cleveland.
Models predict sustained winds of 22 mph blowing SSW corner to corner, with gusts getting up to 33 mph. Mix in steady rain throughout Sunday and things could get messy between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cleveland Browns.
Many books are off the board while waiting for an update on Lawrence (with early reports at least positive) and the shops that do have the total up hit the board with 33.5 points — a low number considering this could be a Joe Flacco vs. C.J. Beathard battle.
If that is the case, expect tempered passing playbooks and plenty of handoffs, which should keep gains and scoring low. It would also have both teams leaning into their kicking game to make the difference.
Cleveland has attempted the most field goals in the AFC, with Dustin Hopkins making 30 of those boots. Jacksonville isn’t too far behind with 28 FGAs on the year and kicker Brandon McManus making good on 24 of those field goals (he did miss a big one Monday).
Under three field goals made is priced at +165 at bet365, which also has the total on longest field goal made at O/U 46.5 yards.
Houston Texans at New York Jets Weather
The forecast for East Rutheford calls for heavy rains, sustained winds of 16 mph, and gusts getting up to 30 mph blowing SSE from corner to corner. It should be noted that MetLife Stadium does a good job keeping the wind out, so it may not be as hairy inside the stadium on Sunday.
That crap weather along with New York being unable to find a willing body at quarterback has this total shrinking like it took a polar bear plunge, dropping from 38.5 to 34.5 points in the first two days of action.
Super rookie C.J. Stroud has played in four outdoor games with his offense losing a little pop in those outings, dipping from 8.98 yards per attempt inside to just 7.54 outside. The Texans are 2-2 Over/Under in those games.
He leads the league in completed air yards and sits second in total and attempted air yards per pass — a style of play that doesn’t mesh well with what the weather has planned on Sunday. Stroud will also be without budding WR Tank Dell, who’s done for the season, and TE Dalton Schultz is still dinged up.
Houston is a lofty 6.5-point road favorite which looks a little dicey with the total getting shorter. The Texans team total is out there at 21.5 points (Under -150), which is pretty much on the nose with the team’s scoring clip the past three games (21, 21, and 22) which were all played inside.
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