NFL Week 13 Odds: Best Spot Bets Include the Bumbling Packers

The NFL calendar flips to December in Week 13, meaning a seismic shift not just in temperatures but motivation. 

The playoff chase is on for teams in touch with the tournament but a good number of clubs are on the outside looking in, leaving their late-season plans a guessing game. One way to monitor possible motivation is situational handicapping — AKA Spot Bets.

I size up the NFL Week 13 odds and tell you which situational pitfalls to watch out for, with my letdown, look-ahead, and schedule spots bets to consider.

Letdown spot: Jacksonville Jaguars (+1) at Detroit Lions

Jacksonville erupted for 18 points in the fourth quarter to edge the Baltimore Ravens in Week 12, including a ballsy two-point convert call from head coach Doug Pederson to put his team ahead with 14 seconds left. 

That outright win as a 3.5-point home underdog was the Jags’ second win in the past three games, but just their second victory since the start of October. A letdown does loom in Motown this weekend, with Jacksonville hitting the road to play the Detroit Lions. 

This spread has seen some interesting line movement in the first 48 hours of action. The game opened at a pick’em and early money sided with the Lions, sliding this spread as high as Detroit -2. But there was buyback on Jacksonville on Monday and this game is back down as low as a PK at respected online books.

The Jags are in a rare spot coming off the win — having been in this situation only six times since 2020 (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS) — and they are away from home, where they own a 1-4 ATS mark in 2022. The Lions are always live in Ford Field, with a 10-4 ATS mark at home since Dan Campbell took over as head coach.

Look-ahead spot: Green Bay Packers (-3) at Chicago Bears

It’s been a bad run for the Packers in 2022 and got even worse (or maybe better?) with Aaron Rodgers leaving Week 12 with a rib injury, bringing in backup Jordan Love for the final stretch of Sunday night’s loss to Philadelphia.

Green Bay has one win in its last eight games, is all but out of the playoff race, and heads to the Windy City to face the Chicago Bears in Week 13. On the other side of this divisional rivalry is a much-needed bye week. 

Rodgers' status for Sunday is up in the air and the media is calling for Love after he looked sharp in his limited work in Philly. The books that do have a line up for this NFC North matchup are hanging the Cheeseheads as 3-point favorites, as Bears QB Justin Fields is day-to-day with a shoulder injury that held him out of Week 12.

Considering the laundry list of injuries, poor play, and locker room drama that have plagued the Packers all year, a week away from football is like a warm cup of cocoa in the middle of a Wisconsin winter.

Schedule spot: Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Bolts are back on the road in Week 13, playing their second straight away game and their fourth travel tilt in the past five weeks. Bookies opened Los Angeles as 1-point road chalk in Las Vegas and that’s climbed to -2 at some shops.

While the Chargers haven’t ventured too far from L.A. — save for an East Coast trip to Atlanta to kick off this nasty stretch in Week 9 — this travel-heavy stretch does make game planning and practicing a challenge and will test this team’s focus in Sin City this weekend. Not only can the lure of Sin City get the best of us, but Los Angeles could also start looking ahead to a key AFC playoff picture showdown with the Miami Dolphins next week.

There are a couple of other notable schedule spots on the Week 13 board to keep in mind when capping games: 

The New Orleans Saints visit Tampa Bay on Monday night for the team’s second straight road game and third in four weeks (NOLA dropped from +6 to +3.5 with pros on Saints). 

The Denver Broncos (+8.5) play a 1 p.m. ET kickoff on the East Coast again at Baltimore in Week 13 — their second roadie in the row and third in four weeks (and fourth in five games with a London Game in Week 8 and bye in Week 9).

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