The Tennessee Titans keep getting smacked around by divisional opponents, and my Week 6 NFL trends suggest more punishment is coming.
I'm also backing the Los Angeles Rams to bounce back against the bottom-feeding Arizona Cardinals and examining San Francisco’s success as a favorite against a Washington team still figuring out how to manage the clock.
That and more in my NFL picks for Week 6.
Best NFL trends for Week 6
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| Trend | Pick |
|---|---|
 TEN vs  IND• TEN is 3-16 ATS in divisional games |
|
 ARI vs  LAR• LAR is 8-2 ATS after a loss |
|
 WAS vs  SF• SF is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS as a favorite |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Titans vs Colts trends
Trend: Titans are 3-16 ATS in divisional games since the start of 2023
Let’s go right back to the well on fading the Tennessee Titans against a divisional opponent after Houston humiliated them 26-3 last week. Tennessee managed a pathetic 187 total yards… on its home field.
Now they visit the Indianapolis Colts, who are coming off a loss and couldn’t ask for a better punching bag. Indy is 6-0 SU and ATS in the last six meetings, averaging 31.8 points and winning by an average of 11 points. Last season’s victories came by 21 and 24 points.
Back home after trips to London and Pittsburgh, the Colts should be foaming at the mouth to beat up on a Titans team that’s already scored 10 points or fewer three times this season.
Cardinals vs Rams trends
Trend: Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after a loss
Big spread here, but consider that five of the Los Angeles Rams' last 10 games following a loss produced wins by 14-plus points. They faced the Arizona Cardinals twice after losses last season and obliterated the Cardinals by 28 and 17 points.
Usually, it’s not as easy as simply betting against a really bad team, but Arizona’s 2-8 ATS run coming into this game suggests otherwise.
Statistically, it’s not close. The Rams are tied for fourth in net yards per play, while the Cardinals are dead last and allow the most points per game.
Already three games behind San Francisco in the NFC West, don’t expect the Rams to play with their food.
Commanders vs 49ers trends
Trend: 49ers are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season
Some might call this a “letdown spot” for the San Francisco 49ers, but I don’t see it coming at home against the franchise that fired Kyle Shanahan and his dad after the 2013 season.
Aside from the Washington Commanders' inability to manage the clock, the Commanders face an avalanche of statistical disadvantages. They rank last in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed, while San Francisco ranks first offensively. Washington’s offense ranks 27th in yards per pass attempt and faces a defense that ranks fifth in that category.
They’re also 30th in scoring defense against a 49ers offense that ranks third in scoring. That’s a lot to overcome for a team still working on when to spike the ball.
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Other notable NFL trends for Week 6
Chargers vs. Chiefs matchup page
🟢 Chiefs are 13-3 to the Under in their last 16 games
Back Under 42.5 vs. the Chargers
Cowboys vs. Packers matchup page
🟢 Cowboys are 9-0 to the Over in their last nine road games
Back Over 53.5 vs. the Packers
Texans vs. Jaguars matchup page
🔴 The Jaguars are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games
Avoid -2.5 vs. the Texans
Saints vs. Giants matchup page
🔴 The Saints are 13-5 to the Under in their last 18 games
Avoid Under 45.5 vs. the Giants
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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