With the NFL entering Week 6, we’re a third of the way through the season. In people years, that would approximately make the 2026 campaign around 25 years old.
Take it from me, 25 is a fun but dangerous age. You’re still full of energy and aspirations but know just enough — or maybe just too little — to get yourself in some serious shit.
Hell, the able and arrogant ignorance of 25-year-olds is a big reason why half of “soccer moms” have lower-back tattoos and why you’ve ended up paying $35,000 over the last 15 years for a 2011 Honda Civic that cost $15K.
Week 6 presents an equally slippery slope for your NFL picks.
The 2026 season still has that new car smell, keeping us enthralled. However, early-season results can be misleading and make us think we've got this whole football thing figured out.
My NFL underdog picks take the mature approach, looking for edges in a market that’s still “young and dumb” but growing up really fast.
Last week: 2-1 ATS
Season: 7-8 ATS
NFL Week 6 underdog picks
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Texans +2.5 vs. Jaguars
Here’s a pro tip: When I’m having a crappy day and need to flip my mood fast, I eat one spoonful of ice cream.
The science says the blend of sugar, fat, and temperature shock shakes our primitive brain and knocks loose whatever bad vibes were bringing us down.
For the Houston Texans, that scoop of ice cream was a 26-3 beatdown of Tennessee in Week 5.
It gave Houston its first win of the season and sends the Texans to London, England with plenty positive momentum stuffed inside the overhead bins.
The Texans' underperforming defense finally showed up last Sunday, rating out as the fourth-best stop unit in EPA allowed per play. The pass rush was all over the Titans, recording four sacks.
Houston turns its attention to Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, who won’t have LT Anton Harrison (knee) watching his blindside for the rest of the season.
Lawrence was already feeling pressure at the 13th-highest rate, taking 10 sacks and suffering 19 QB hits.
Houston currently sits second in the league with 18 sacks and 11th in pressure rate per dropback, despite blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate. That pressure from just the front four, including sack leader Will Anderson Jr., is Lawrence’s kryptonite.
After five games, the Jags QB ranks 10th among all passers at PFF when kept clean (91.2) but drops to 37th under pressure (36.4). Lawrence’s completion rate sinks below 42%, and he’s thrown two of his three interceptions while under duress.
Bears at Falcons +3.5
If Caleb Williams’ social media movement is any indication, flipping his profile pic to John Wick is his way of saying, “Yeah, I’m thinkin’ I’m back”.
That has the Chicago Bears’ spread climbing for Week 6’s date with the Atlanta Falcons. Waiting for Williams in the ATL isn’t like waiting for a legion of super-secret assassins, but it might as well be.
The Falcons defense continues to fly under the radar through five games. While the team’s rushing attack gets all the glory, Atlanta’s pass rush has quietly become the “Baba Yaga” of the NFC.
Defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich has cooked up the 12th-highest pressure rate, with 11 sacks and a league-high 29 QB hits, powering ESPN's No. 4 pass-rush win rate. Ulbrich will test Williams’ mobility with a wonky hamstring early and often in Week 6.
And that’s when Chicago gets to touch the ball.
Atlanta’s ground-and-pound approach is chowing down on the fourth-highest time of possession, burning through the 11th-most seconds per play clock.
The law firm of Robinson & Robinson is running all over opponents, with the third-best success rate per handoff.
The Bears defense is buns vs. the run, ranking near the bottom of the NFL in many advanced measurements, and likely takes the field without defensive end Montez Sweat (suspended) and Dayo Odeyingbo (quads), as well as LB T.J. Edwards (hamstring).
Of course, this all goes to shit if Michael Penix Jr. isn’t under center for Atlanta. Early updates are positive that he’ll play through a rib injury suffered last Sunday night.
Jets +7.5 at Patriots
I’m taking the same approach with the New England Patriots as I do to Dollar Store garbage bags: I ain’t buying ‘em.
A sloppy showing from Buffalo and catching the ripe-for-regression Raiders in an early road spot isn’t enough to convince me the Pats won't leak nasty garbage juice all over the floor... nor are they worthy of laying more than a touchdown to a divisional rival.
New England hosts the New York Jets as 7.5-point chalk in Week 5, with the markets showing little love for what’s going on with Gang Green.
New York is 2-3 SU but has been competitive every week, owning an average margin of -0.6 points and a 3-1-1 ATS count. It's one of only three sub .500 teams turning profits.
The Jets catch the Pats in a sore spot in Week 6, with injuries stacking up. New England lost RB TreVeyon Henderson and LT Will Campbell last week, leaving this offensive line with more holes than my last surviving pair of underwear from Xmas 2022.
That’s a problem for Aaron Glenn’s defense as it starts to hum.
New York’s aggressive pass rush brings extra bodies at the fourth-highest rate, T-3 with 17 sacks and the No. 4 pass-rush win rate. Glenn’s man-centric coverage gives up the third-lowest yards per attempt and the fifth-fewest yards after the catch.
New England’s deteriorating pass protection already has QB Drake Maye feeling the heat, with the eighth-highest pressure rate allowed.
Maye has also struggled against man coverage in 2026, with a 46% completion rate and a passer rating below 78.0.
The Jets hope RB Breece Hall and OL Dylan Parham can return, giving New York’s run game a two-pronged attack along with RB Braelon Allen, who rushed for 116 yards in Week 5. New England slumps to the bottom of the NFL in most run-stop metrics.
Mix in a looming look-ahead spot for Mike Vrabel, with a short turnaround to play at Chicago on TNF in Week 7, and I’m going with Gang Green to keep things close for another week.
Week 6 underdog combo
Texans +2.5
Falcons +3.5
Jets +7.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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