Another beautiful Sunday of football is upon us, and our experts have you covered with their favorite players to hit paydirt in Week 5.
From a familiar face in Derrick Henry to star tight end Trey McBride, we've identified our favorite anytime touchdown candidates across this week's slate.
We're also combining our top selections into one NFL touchdown combo that you won't want to miss out on at Kalshi, so let's dive into our top NFL picks for Oct. 11.
Our best NFL touchdown combo
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Josh Inglis' TD pick: Tre Harris
This is an incredible price on Kalshi when you consider the rest of the market is closer to 4x than his 4.7x price. The Denver Broncos are missing key pieces in the secondary, with Patrick Surtain doubtful and fellow starting corner Riley Moss questionable.
Also helping Tre Harris get those looks against second-string defenders is the health of his fellow receivers. Ladd McConkey can't seem to get healthy, and Quentin Johnston is also questionable.
The only players seemingly healthy on this Los Angeles Chargers offense are Justin Herbert and Harris, who had five targets last week, an 83% route share, and 60 receiving yards.
Harris also leads all Chargers WRs in red-zone targets. This is one of my favorite TD picks this weekend.
Check out more of Josh Inglis' touchdown picks for Week 5.
Jon Metler's TD pick: Derrick Henry
I’m not even going to overthink this one. Give me Derrick Henry to score a touchdown at 57%, as I price him closer to 61%.
We rarely see this kind of edge in Henry’s touchdown market. I’m old enough to remember the Baltimore Ravens walking into Lambeau Field last season needing a win with Tyler Huntley under center, and Henry responded with four rushing touchdowns.
With a backup quarterback taking the snaps, Henry should see a heavy workload against the Atlanta Falcons, making him the clear focal point when Baltimore gets inside the 10.
Dustin Saracini's TD pick: Nico Collins
I'll turn to Nico Collins at this price, especially in a plus-matchup against the Tennessee Titans. Despite missing two games, Collins still owns a 43% target share in the red zone and three touchdowns to his name.
He returned last week and posted a casual seven catches for 118 yards and two scores.
Against the Titans, the scoring volume will be there, as will his red-zone opportunities. Let's ride with the Houston Texans' WR1.
Joe Osborne's TD pick: Trey McBride
Expect fireworks in a matchup with the week’s highest total. The Detroit Lions defense has been horrendous, particularly against tight ends, surrendering 37 catches and six touchdowns through four games.
That’s an inviting matchup for Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride, who has drawn double-digit targets in every game this season. The volume is there, and this Detroit defense keeps getting embarrassed.
At Kalshi’s 43% price, I’m backing McBride to find the end zone.
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