Tom Brady Un-Retirement Odds: It's Vegas, Baby!

Just when you thought Tom Brady was done for good, the NFL legend said that he's open to the idea of making another comeback. Find out the latest odds on Brady to return, plus our NFL betting picks for Tom Brady un-retirement odds.

Apr 16, 2024 • 21:00 ET • 4 min read
Tom Brady NFL Mark Davis
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Here we go again.

Seven-time Super Bowl champion and future Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady dropped a bombshell on Thursday when he revealed in a YouTube interview that he's “not opposed” to coming back to the NFL. 

Speaking on DeepCut with VicBlends, Brady said, “I don’t know if they’re gonna let me if I become an owner of an NFL team, but... I’m always gonna be in good shape, (I’ll) always be able to throw the ball. So, to come in for a little bit, like [Michael Jordan] coming back? I don’t know if they’d let me, but I wouldn’t be opposed to it.” 

Could we see Brady make another comeback? And if so, which team will it be with? Here are the latest odds on Tom Brady to un-retire from the NFL, as well as Tom Brady odds for his potential next team and free picks for each market.

Tom Brady odds to un-retire

Un-retirement decision Odds
Yes +1,000

Betting is only being offered on one side of the market at this time. If a “No”  option for Brady to un-retire existed, it would probably be in the -2,500 range. Although -2,500 odds are wholly unappetizing, it would probably be free money for anyone who wagered on it, as the soon-to-be 47-year-old is a giant long shot to ever get back on an NFL playing field.

When Brady un-retired in 2022, he did not miss a single game between the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. Coming back after taking 2023-24 off would be a significant hurdle, especially for a player of his age. 

Brady showed signs of Father Time finally catching up to him in his last NFL season, as he fell from 312.7 passing yards per game to 276.1 despite leading the league in attempts. His 6.4 yards per attempt was his lowest since 2002, his second full year in the NFL. 

Brady has $375 million reasons to stay off the playing field this year, as he inked a 10-year deal to be the No. 1 NFL analyst on FOX alongside play-by-play voice Kevin Burkhardt. He decided against beginning his stint with the network in 2023 but recently said on his podcast that he's coming to the booth in the fall.

There's another barrier to re-entry to be considered, which Brady alluded to in the YouTube interview. No NFL player is allowed to have equity in a team, so Brady would have to renege on his interest in buying a minority stake in the Las Vegas Raiders if he wished to sign on with any franchise. Speaking of which...

There is another new market to consider where the implied probability is far more appealing. You can presently get +450 odds on whether Brady's bid to become a part owner of the Raiders will be voted on at the next owner's meeting in May 2024. TB12 has been vocal in his desire to own an NFL franchise and has developed a close relationship over the years with Raiders owner Mark Davis. Brady is already a minority owner of the Las Vegas Aces along with Davis, so the pairing (and the odds) make a lot of sense.

Tom Brady next team odds

Team Name Odds
Patriots New England Patriots -140
Raiders Las Vegas Raiders +100
Buccaneers Tampa Bay Buccaneers +500
49ers San Francisco 49ers +900
Dolphins Miami Dolphins +1,200
Jets New York Jets +2,000
NFL Any other team +500

This market assumes that Brady is un-retired and free to sign with any team he pleases. If you want to wager on Brady to be on an NFL roster for Week 1 of the 2024-25 season, you can get +300 odds.

If Brady is to be taken at his word, the only two teams he'd consider un-retiring for are the Raiders and the New England Patriots. Although a return to Foxboro would make an interesting story, the Patriots are a dumpster fire heading into 2024-25. The Raiders might be only slightly better, but still have to contend with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs twice a year.

At +900, the San Francisco 49ers aren't a bad bet. Brady is from California and the Niners are fresh off a narrow Super Bowl defeat. It wouldn't be crazy to think that San Francisco could reach out to “Touchdown Tom” if they lose faith in Brock Purdy. The 49ers had a deal in place to bring Philip Rivers out of retirement as an emergency QB in 2022-23 if they made it to Super Bowl 57, so their reaching out to Brady wouldn't be beyond the pale.

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