Drake Maye and the New England Patriots host the Houston Texans in the AFC Divisional Round on Sunday.
I expect Maye to be under constant pressure in this playoff matchup, which factors into two of my favorite Texans vs. Patriots player props.
Here are my latest NFL picks for January 18, with kickoff set for 3:00 p.m. ET in Foxborough.
Texans vs Patriots props for the AFC Divisional Round
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Danielle Hunter |
To record a sack | -128 |
 Drake Maye |
Over 35.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Christian Kirk |
Over 38.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Danielle Hunter to record a sack (-128)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has been sacked 52 times this season, including five last week against the Chargers. The sophomore tends to hold onto the ball too long, with his receivers struggling to separate from defenders.
That makes Maye a prime target in the pocket against a Houston Texans defense featuring a strong secondary and one of the NFL’s elite pass-rushing duos.
Danielle Hunter finished the regular season third in the league in sacks (15) and fourth in pressures (89). The five-time Pro Bowler has recorded a sack in eight of his last 10 games, including six pressures last week in Pittsburgh.
Drake Maye Over 35.5 rushing yards (-114)
Maye rushed for 66 yards on 10 carries in the Wild Card Round, marking the third time in the last five weeks he’s topped 40 yards on the ground. In another game during that span, he had 10 attempts but was held to just 25 yards.
While Houston’s run defense has been elite against traditional backs, it can be vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks. The Texans allow a league-high 9.2 yards per scramble, as their aggressive pass rush often opens gaps at the second level.
With Houston bringing constant pressure, expect Maye to be flushed from the pocket and pick up significant yards on the ground.
Christian Kirk Over 38.5 receiving yards (-114)
With Houston ruling out No. 1 WR Nico Collins due to a concussion, Christian Kirk is poised for another high-volume outing. The veteran hauled in eight of nine targets for 144 yards in last week’s win over the Steelers.
Earlier in the season, Kirk’s production was limited by a lingering hamstring injury and a crowded receiver room. Now fully healthy, he’s become a key target for Texans QB C.J. Stroud, especially on third down.
With Patriots Pro Bowl corner Christian Gonzalez locking down Houston’s outside receivers, look for Stroud to target Kirk in the slot.
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Texans vs Patriots prop betting card
- Hunter to record a sack (-128)
- Maye o35.5 rushing yards (-114)
- Kirk o38.5 receiving yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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