I warned you that dark days were coming... I hope you listened.
NFL favorites seemed so invincible recently; it was inevitable a few notable teams would take a tumble. The Green Bay Packers, Detroit Lions, Dallas Cowboys, and Indianapolis Colts lost last week despite being favored by a field goal or more.
Those upsets shook up the Covers $10K Pro Football Survivor Contest and have everyone on their toes as we enter the second half of the schedule.
Here is my best Week 10 survivor pool NFL pick, as well as the safest option, according to the NFL odds.
Good luck.
Best survivor pool bets for Week 10
Chicago Bears
Buffalo Bills
My pick: Chicago Bears
Opponent: vs. New York Giants
Moneyline odds: -190 (65.52% implied win probability)
Yeah, I’m not crazy about picking the Chicago Bears either.
However, if you’ve held on to some top-tier teams through nine weeks and want to keep those powerhouses for the home stretch, Chicago is worth the risk.
The Bears are at home to the Giants, who no longer have the firepower to keep pace with this offense. The G-Men also have multiple injuries on defense entering Week 10 and rank in the basement of most defensive measurements.
Chicago has momentum with five wins in the last six weeks, although those victories have come against some broken foes. Luckily for Da Bears, no team looks more busted than Big Blue right now.
Sitting through an uncomfortable Chicago game in Week 10 (Caleb Williams scrambling will give you IBS) makes sense in the grand scheme of survivor things.
The Bears have little future value in the coming weeks, as the slate gets tougher. It also allows you to stash haymakers like Buffalo, Detroit, Seattle, Indianapolis, and Denver for the championship rounds.
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Safest pick: Buffalo Bills
Opponent: at Miami Dolphins
Moneyline odds: -500 (83.33% implied win probability)
The Buffalo Bills are laying close to double digits on the road in Week 10.
This trip to South Beach could be a tricky spot, given Buffalo is coming down from an emotional win over Kansas City and now traveling to the distractions of Miami, where the temperatures will “feel like” 100 degrees Sunday.
Then we factor in the Dolphins and feel much better about the Bills’ chances.
Miami is off a mini bye after getting blasted by Baltimore last Thursday, but is obviously starting to pack it up for 2025.
The Dolphins dealt edge Jaelen Phillips at the deadline and have a trip to Spain next week hanging over them before a bye in Week 12, with the axe hovering above head coach Mike McDaniel.
Buffalo doesn’t need to get fancy for this one. Just run the ball, chew up the clock, and don’t think about postgame frozen margaritas on the beach until the whistle blows.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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