Targeting the spiraling Miami Dolphins has been a consistent and successful approach, and that's mostly the strategy here again in our NFL survivor pool expert picks for Week 4.
The winless Dolphins have posted a 16.6-point average margin of defeat through three weeks, with a staggeringly poor offense averaging only 12 points per outing.
They draw the Minnesota Vikings this week on Sunday, Oct. 4 at 4:05 p.m. ET, making them a near-consensus selection for survivor pools in our NFL picks. The Baltimore Ravens are an appealing option too if you're still alive.
NFL survivor pool expert picks for Week 4
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| Expert | Pick |  Win Probability |
|---|---|---|
 Dustin Saracini |
 Ravens |
85% |
 Josh Inglis |
 Vikings |
83% |
 Joe Osborne |
Vikings |
83% |
 Geoff Clark |
Vikings |
83% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Dustin Saracini’s expert pick: Ravens
Price: 85% at Kalshi
We're still alive heading into Week 4 after our Kansas City Chiefs play hit with ease last Sunday. This week is a no-brainer for me with the Baltimore Ravens up against the Tennessee Titans.
Cam Ward may be a bust, and the Tennessee Titans organization just can't seem to get out of its own way. The Ravens will cruise against the team ranked 31st in total offense. Let's move on to next week already.
Josh Inglis' survivor pick: Vikings
Price: 83% at Kalshi
I'm just happy to be alive heading into Week 4. The Vikings' defense is going to be too much for the Miami Dolphins without De'Von Achane. The potential loss of Justin Jefferson hurts, but the Dolphins' offense isn't going to put up enough points to make that an issue.
The Vikings boast the No. 1 overall defense in football that also ranks first or second in success rate and EPA versus the pass and the run. Miami's team total is at 13.5, and that might be a point too far. Malik Willis will have a miserable time on third-and-long Sunday.
Joe Osborne's survivor pick: Vikings
Price: 83% at Kalshi
Minnesota is my survivor pick against a Miami team that’s suffered at least a 14-point defeat in every game. Without Achane, the Dolphins lack the firepower to challenge a Vikings defense allowing just 13.7 points per game and ranking first on third down and in the red zone.
Minnesota has won eight straight, and Brian Flores will do his best to humiliate the team that fired him.
Geoff Clark’s expert pick: Vikings
Price: 83% at Kalshi
Minnesota's defense is a top-three unit, and the Miami Dolphins will be without Achane, their best offensive weapon. Until further notice, Miami will be the easiest team on everyone's schedule, as the Dolphins are heavy favorites to finish with the NFL's worst record.
The Vikings keep winning regardless of who's starting under center, and Kyler Murray is their most talented starter since Sam Darnold two seasons ago.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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